1 IPCC Into a warming world WMO UNEP R K Pachauri Chairman, IPCC Director-General, TERI State of the World Symposium Washington 15 th January 2009

2 IPCC The Intergovernmental panel on climate change: Science at the service of policy-making

3 IPCC 1.Experts review the first draft of the report 2.Governments and experts review the second draft of the report and the draft Summary for Policymakers 3.Governments review word-by-word the revised draft Summary for Policymakers Writing and review process of the IPCC assessment reports

4 IPCC scientific expert reviewers 800 contributing authors 450 lead authors +130 countries The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

5 IPCC References to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in the Bali Action Plan (December 2007) “Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that delay in reducing emissions significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts” “[…] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially the least developed countries and small island developing States, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods” “[…] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”

6 IPCC Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: 1. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

7 IPCC Observed changes Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Global average temperature

8 IPCC Global temperature change Year Temperature anomaly Models using only natural forcing Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcing Observations

9 IPCC The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes

10 IPCC Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas - Heat wave in Europe, 2003: deaths

11 IPCC Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased in the North Atlantic since about Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

12 IPCC More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics Photo credit: GoodPlanet

13 IPCC Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: 2. “Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21 st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20 th century”

14 IPCC Carbon dioxide emissions Radiative Forcing (Wm ) Carbon Dioxide (ppm) Time (before 2005) -2 Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increased markedly as a result of human activities, with an increase of 70% in U.S. emissions have risen by 14.7% in * *Source: EPA, 2008

15 IPCC Projected surface temperature changes ( relative to ) Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21 st century ( o C)

16 IPCC Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change relative to

17 IPCC Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources Increased number, intensity and duration of heatwaves will have potential for adverse health impacts Impacts on North America

18 IPCC People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:  120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia  12 to 81 million in Latin America  75 to 250 million in Africa Expected impacts on poor regions Possible yield reduction in agriculture:  30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia  30% by 2080 in Latin America  50% by 2020 in some African countries Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

19 IPCC Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: 3. “Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts; however, they can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change”

20 IPCC Stabilisation scenarios 3.2 – – – – 2.4 Global mean temp. increase (ºC) 2020 – – – – – – – – 490 Year CO 2 needs to peak Stabilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq)

21 IPCC Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030 Stabilisation levels (ppm CO2-eq) Range of GDP reduction (%) Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates (percentage pts) < 3< – 2.5< – 1.2< 0.06 Costs of mitigation in 2030

22 IPCC GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation 2030 GDP Time Current Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth (for stabilisation scenario of ppm CO 2 -eq) Schematic graph

23 IPCC Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution Increased energy security Increased agricultural production and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems More rural employment Co-benefits of mitigation Co-benefits provide the opportunity for no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs

24 IPCC Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: 4. “There is substantial […] potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that could […] reduce emissions below current levels”

25 IPCC All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion

26 IPCC Regulations and standards Appropriate energy infrastructure investments Research, development and demonstration Key mitigation instruments, policies & practices Effective carbon-price signal Taxes and charges Change in lifestyles & consumption patterns

27 IPCC Barack Obama’s New Energy for America plan (2008) Create 5 million new green jobs by investing $150 billion over the next 10 years Ensure 10% of electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25% by 2025 Get 1 million hybrid cars on the road by 2015 Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050

28 IPCC  enable the achievement of global stabilisation targets US action on mitigation would:  ensure US competitiveness in a world market dominated by low-carbon products  re-establish confidence in US leadership on critical global issues The need for US involvement

29 IPCC Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself. Chief Seattle, 1854