Robert A. Winfree, Ph.D. U. S. National Park Service.

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Presentation transcript:

Robert A. Winfree, Ph.D. U. S. National Park Service

From Williams, Szaro and Shapiro. 2007

1. Frame the Issue 2. Assess Information 3. Develop Scenarios 4. Take Action 5. Monitor Changes

Forecast Planning One Future Scenario Planning Multiple Futures Scenarios overcome the tendency to predict, allowing us to see multiple possibilities for the future What we know today +10% -10% Uncertainties Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group Copyright 2010 Monitor Company

Resource Demand Resource Availability Economics Infrastructure Environmental Sensitivity

Robust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or at least not hurt you too much) in any of the four scenarios OR Bet the Farm / Shaping: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality OR Hedge Your Bets / Wait and See: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size OR Core / Satellite: Place one major bet, with one or more small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, and real options Hedge Your Bets Core Robust Satellite Bet the Farm

Exposed ice lens in active thermokarst ↑ TAPS – Trans Alaska Pipeline System Dalton Highway Questions?

Robust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or at least not hurt you too much) in any of the four scenarios OR Bet the Farm / Shaping: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality OR Hedge Your Bets / Wait and See: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size OR Core / Satellite: Place one major bet, with one or more small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, and real options Hedge Your Bets Core Robust Satellite Bet the Farm

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