WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Fistera Roadshow Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Fistera WP2 Results Methodology and Technology Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Method and approach for analyses of technology trajectories  Technology evolution in the global context  Four layers  Representation mechanisms  Information sources and acquisition process  Involvement of partners, members, community  Disruptions, signposts  Topology and What if

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 PUSH vs PULL  It is a tangled world  Technology cannot be seen outside of context  i.e. if you want to assess its value!  Incremental vs Disruptive  Value is in understanding relationships  Existing vs Out of the blue Technology Evolution & context

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 COMPROMISING ON 4  Technology The FOUR LAYERS Related to Information Society Basic vs Aggregate Technology Description for the lay-man understand why it is relevant Is there value in investing? Leading, trailing…no hope?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 COMPROMISING ON 4  Technology The FOUR LAYERS  Functionality What is needed Why the capability is important Showing tech. alternatives Evolution over time

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 COMPROMISING ON 4  Technology The FOUR LAYERS  Functionality 3D Imaging Broadband Data Capture Digital Broadcasting System Encryption Information Displaying Information Retrieval Human Interfacing Image recognition Information coding Language understanding ….

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 COMPROMISING ON 4  Technology The FOUR LAYERS  Functionality  Service Whose business is it? What is the potential market? How can it change over time? Is it culturally related? Is it “basic”?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 COMPROMISING ON 4  Technology The FOUR LAYERS  Functionality  Service Blogging Broadband on demand Education Healthcare Multimodal Transportation Security ensurance Storage on demand Tourism Support Services …

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 COMPROMISING ON 4  Technology The FOUR LAYERS  Functionality  Service  Ambient What are the social implication? What are the concerns? Is life quality improving? Who is benefiting? What is the market size? What can be the standard? Is it location based? How will it evolve?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 COMPROMISING ON 4  Technology The FOUR LAYERS  Functionality  Service  Ambient Ambient “on the move” Amusement park Car Car dealer shop Communities Construction site Cooperative working area Distribution Chain Graveyard Hospital …

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Home Page  News  Contact us  Keep an eye on  Disruptions  Layers  Papers  References Representation mechanisms

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Layer  List of …  Year related  today  2008  2020 Representation mechanisms

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Relationships Representation mechanisms  Within Layer  Across Layer  Type/Strenght  impacts on  uses  enables  enhanced by  …  Geography

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Timeline Representation mechanisms  How Layers’ entities change  How a single entity change  Entity Evolution Roadmap  How relationships change Today

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content Representation mechanisms  Description  Performance  Challenges  Cost  Application areas  Relations  Main actors  Geography  Volume  IST / Countries Pr.  News Monitoring

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003  Description  PerformancePerformance  ChallengesChallenges  Cost trendsCost trends  Application areasApplication areas  RelationsRelations  Main actorsMain actors  GeographyGeography  VolumeVolume  IST – Countries Programs Content: Technology Representation mechanisms

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003  Description  PerformancePerformance  ChallengesChallenges  Cost trendsCost trends  Application areasApplication areas  RelationsRelations  VolumeVolume Content: Functionality Representation mechanisms

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003  Description  PerformancePerformance  ChallengesChallenges  Cost trendsCost trends  Application areasApplication areas  RelationsRelations  Main actorsMain actors  GeographyGeography  VolumeVolume Content: Services Representation mechanisms

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003  Description  PerformancePerformance  ChallengesChallenges  Cost trendsCost trends  Application areasApplication areas  RelationsRelations  Main actorsMain actors  GeographyGeography  VolumeVolume  IST – Countries Programs Content: Ambient Representation mechanisms

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Sources  Published Studies  Internet search  IST  WP1  IEEE  Universities  News Monitoring  Research Centers Information sources and Acquisition

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 You are the ones…  New items  Challenge existing ones  Content provisioning  Relationships challenging  Geography  Local situations  WP 1 Involvement of partners, …

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Looking for “x” Disruptions, signpost Disruption Time

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Looking for “x” in processing Disruptions, signpost ? Time Mainframes Mini PC PDA Tablet PC Smart Obj. GRID

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Looking for “x” in telecommunication Disruptions, signpost ? Time Electromech Switches Routers Bridges Add/Drop Electronic Switches - Mesh Ntw - SwRadio - Autonomic Systems

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Looking for “x” in health care Disruptions, signpost ? Time Understanding Symptoms Understanding Causes Understanding Specificity

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Looking for “x” in health care Disruptions, signpost Time Understanding Specificity Human Genoma Drug syntheses Fast Mapping Symbioses Monitoring Bio-Substitution

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Looking for “x” in health care Disruptions, signpost Time Human Genoma Drug syntheses Fast Mapping Symbioses Monitoring Bio-Substitution Wet Ware Bio Printing Sensors – U.Acc. Hi.Sp. Processing Molecular comp.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 SPACE WARPING  Weighting relationship, distorting the topology Topology, what if

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 SPACE WARPING  Weighting relationship, distorting the topology  Global vs one at the time Topology, what if Global Value Shareholders Stakeholders

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 SPACE WARPING  Weighting relationship, distorting the topology  Global vs one at the time …. Something for next year! Topology, what if

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Technology Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Define metrics How performances evolved What performances are now Expected Evolution

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Technology Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume What are the hurdles ? Competing Technologies Dependencies

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Technology Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume How will cost change? Is it volume related? Is it process related? Is it packaging related? ….

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Technology Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Clues on volumes Clues on impact at the upper layers

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Technology Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Mostly to functionalities for devices relations to Amb. Several types - weighted easies the use of easies the access to enhances the functionality uses enables impacts on Increases processing power …..

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Technology Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Who is today pursuing it role of institutions / government existing research programmes country policy

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Technology Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Relevance of an area, weighted “as is” today, 2008, at the window 2 applying 3 researching 4 leading the pack 5 out of reach

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Technology Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Weighted based on lifecycle: 0 - Theory stage 1 - Lab demonstration 2 - Released to market 3 - Applied in niches, high cost 4 - widespread 5 - commodity - embedded

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Functionality Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Volume Volume Define metrics How it evolves thanks to a mix of technologies

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Functionality Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Volume Volume How can it be used effectively?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Functionality Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Volume Volume How will cost change? ranges options

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Functionality Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Volume Volume Clues on impact at the upper layers

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Functionality Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Volume Volume To Service enables … To Technologies uses either …or …

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Functionality Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Volume Volume Weighted based on lifecycle: 0 - not available 1 - experimental 2 - niche application 3 - broad market 4 - commodity 5 - embedded

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Services Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Define metrics Evolution of demand for performance

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Services Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume ROI payback time competition issues fostering/hampering diffusion usability concerns competing on money competing on time

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Services Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Cost model flat per use subsidised bundled

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Services Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Where is the market Direct revenues Indirect business cycle

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Services Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume To Functionalities uses To Ambient easies the use of easies the access to enhances the functionality uses enables impacts on …..

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Services Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Companies / Type of C. Government Local Institutions

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Services Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Market size

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Services Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Penetration on market: 0 - Non existing 1 - Trial 2 - Niche Market 3 - widespread 4 - M.Mkt selected Countries 5 - M.Mkt ubiquitous

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Ambient Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Define metrics Level of Quality of Life

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Ambient Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Social Ethical economic implications how to further evolution

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Ambient Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Who is bearing the cost of evolution deployment operation

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Ambient Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume population segmentation

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Ambient Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Mostly to services uses Some on Tech. for devices

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Ambient Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Shareholders Stakeholders Users

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Ambient Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Who is leading

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Content: Ambient Representation mechanisms  Description Description  Performance Performance  Challenges Challenges  Cost trends Cost trends  Application areas Application areas  Relations Relations  Main actors Main actors  Geography Geography  Volume Volume Applies to: 0 - <5% of population 1 - <20% 2 - <40% 3 - <60% 4 - <80% 5 - ubiquitous

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Decision Matrix Current Evolution New Future C E N F Technology Market

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories  Technologies Identified  Technology Trajectories  Disruptions  Building the future

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Identified  What is a Technology?  Technology Clusters  Functionalities

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 What is a Technology? Technologies identified Chip Evolution (xHz; Hyperthread, Bus; W, …) Lithographic Process (Masking, nm, Wafer size,…) Assembling (Pins, Contact,…) Packaging (Soldering, Casing,…) Manufacturing (Clean Room, Vibration,…) Design (CAD, Clock,…)

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 What is a Technology? Technologies identified Quantum Communications Maxwell Equations (Statistical Modeling,…) Quantum Applications Secure Communications Photon Modeling Detector

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Behavior Technologies Technologies CLUSTERS  Affective Computing  Agents  Avatar

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Coding Technologies  MPEG  Public Key Cryptography Technologies CLUSTERS

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications Technologies  3G  Bluetooth  Cable TV network  Digital Cell. Base stations  Galileo  GPS  Modems  Optical Fibre  Passive Distribution Ntw  Power Line Transmission  Radio Connectivity  Rings  Satellite  Software Radio  Trunk  xDSL  UWB  WiFi  WPAN  Home Networking Technologies CLUSTERS

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Devices Technologies  3D Printers  bio-printers  Cell phones  CRT  Digital Video Recorder  e-books  Flat Screen LCD  Information Appliances  Notebooks  PDA  Personal Computers  Printers  Projection Displays  Robot  Scanner Technologies CLUSTERS

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Power Technologies  Batteries  ZnMg batteries  Fuel Cells  Solar Cells  …  Micro piezoelectric Technologies CLUSTERS

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing Technologies  Digital Signal Processing  Distributed Processing  Graphic Processing  GRID Computing  Microprocessor  Mobile Processing  Molecular Computing  Quantum Computing  Software  Voice syntheses - recognition Technologies CLUSTERS

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage Technologies  Distributed Storage  DRAM  Hard Disk  Optical Disk  Read Only Memory  Holographic Memory  Polymer Memory  Silicon Based Memory  Semantic Data Base Technologies CLUSTERS

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Terminal points Technologies  Active Tags  Beacons  Bio-Marker  Bio-electronics  Bio-metrics  Digital Camera Sensors  e-ink  Gesture capturing  Haptic Interfaces  Holography  Intelligent antenna  MEMS  Micro delivery chip  Nanotechnologies  OLED  Optical Tags  Passive Tags  Sensors  Wet-ware Technologies CLUSTERS

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Functionalities  3D Imaging  Broadband  Communications  Data Capture  Encryption  Gaming Platforms  Gaming Storage  Human Interfacing  Image Recognition  Information Coding  Information Displaying  Information Retrieval Functionalities  Interactivity  Language Understanding  Micro Embedding  Multimode  Personal Identification  Pin Pointing  Printing Atoms  Processing  Profiling  Security  Shadowing  Storage  Virtual Presence  Wearable

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories  Storage  Processing  Information Visual Display  Printing  Information Retrieval  Communications  Bandwidth  Human Interfacing  Data Capturing  Pin Pointing

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Storage  ROM  Read/Write memories  Storage Infrastructures

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage - ROM Trajectories  Silicon based Towards 13 nm, 100s GB Support processing, appliances, Entertainment Today: Japan, Korea, Taiwan Tomorrow: USA on the rise (SOC)

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 electrods polymer ThinFilm Storage - ROM Trajectories  Silicon based  Polymer memory TBs capacity Entertainment, Education, References Today: Europe Tomorrow: ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage - ROM Trajectories  Silicon based  Polymer memory  Holographic memory TBs capacity Entertainment, Education, References Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, East Asia

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage – Read / Write Trajectories  Silicon based GB – 100s of GB Entertainment, SIM Today: Japan, Korea, Taiwan Tomorrow: Changes unlikely. SoC & SIM an important area for Europe

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage – Read / Write Trajectories  Silicon based  Hard disks R/W heads Magnetic Substrate Today: USA Tomorrow: Changes unlikely.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage – Read / Write Trajectories  Silicon based  Hard disks  Optical Storage TBs Massive Parallel search Today: USA Tomorrow: Open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage – Read / Write Trajectories  Silicon based  Hard disks  Optical Storage  Nano Storage Very High Density Today: USA Tomorrow: Open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage – Infrastructure Trajectories  Local Storage from PB to EB 40Tbps interconnection matrix by 2010 Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage – Infrastructure Trajectories  Local Storage  Distributed Storage Data Grid Mostly Scientific and Institutional Applications Today: USA, Europe, Japan Tomorrow: no changes expected

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Storage – Infrastructure Trajectories  Local Storage  Distributed Storage  Synchronised Storage Micro and Macro storage Personal area networks, Personal Virtual Ambient Business environment Network(s) environment Today: USA Tomorrow: open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Processing  …for Calculus  …for capturing information  …for the display of information  …for communications Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing - …for Calculus Trajectories  Microprocessors Following Moore’s law >>> 28 GHz by next decade Embedded in “any” object in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing - …for Calculus Trajectories  Microprocessors  Supercomputers Massive parallel architectures >>> 100 PFLOPS by 2010 >>> EFLOPS by the next decade Scientific and Institutional application Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing - …for Calculus Trajectories  Microprocessors  Supercomputers  GRID Processing Peaking by the end of this decade Scientific and Institutional application Gaming and communities Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing - …for capturing information Trajectories  Microprocessors low power consumption for sensors Embedded in “any” object in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing - …for capturing information Trajectories  Microprocessors  Digital Signal Processing low power consumption for sensors Embedded in “any” object in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing - …for the display of information Trajectories  Graphic Microprocessors Billions of polygons per second by Demands level over 100 Bpps Embedded in microprocessors in the next decade Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: Japan

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing - …for the display of information Trajectories  Graphic Microprocessors  Television image processing Converging monitor and television Embedded in the screen in the next decade Today: Japan, Korea Tomorrow: open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing - …for Communications Trajectories  Microprocessors Growth in speed and decreased consumption Direct optical interfacing Microprocessor on SIM Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing Power penetration  As cost go down:  Mainframe  Mini  PC  …. Low perf: Embedded  2003 April : 1 billion microprocess produced by Intel  …. Medium perf: embedded  …. All embedded Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Microprocessor evolution challenges  Technology challenges:  Quantum effect on electrons  Synchronization clock  Heat dispersion  X ray lithography  Interchip bus – pins  Economic challenges  Fabrication plant cost  ROI (volume related) Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Microprocessor evolution challenges  Paradigm challenges:  Molecular (and DNA) computing  Quantum Computer  Systemic challenges  Communications  Battery power Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Processing Power leadership  Leading edge:  Custom  Intel, …AMD….  Sony ?, Multi cluster Intel….?  …. GRID? Power as Commodity?  US leading till now  Japan on the rise  Europe out of the game. Is it a problem?  if evolution is towards embedding it is a BIG PROBLEM Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Information Visual Display  Screen based information display  Projection based information display  Symbiotic information display Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Screen based  CRT Fading away, the smaller the sooner Significant market share till 2006 / usage share till residential usage share till 2008 in the office Today: Europe, USA, East Asia Tomorrow: nil Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Screen based  CRT  Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma) Winning the market for the form factor Growing market share over CRT (except Plasma) Breakthrough in production (SED like) expected Entertainment (leading innovation), Office,… Today: East Asia, USA with production in Asia Tomorrow: East Asia Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Screen based  CRT  Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)  Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD) Growing market in the low tiers Niche markets: entertainment, gaming, cellphones now, many small devices next Today: Japan,Korea, USA lagging behind Tomorrow: unlikely to change Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Screen based  CRT  Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)  Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD)  Nano-Emission Display (NED) Rising in the last part of this decade HiDef television in the next decade (Plasma Killer) Today: USA, East Asia (research) Tomorrow: open field Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Screen based  CRT  Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)  Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD)  Nano-Emission Display (NED)  e-Ink Niche market in this decade, might expand Paper business related Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: Japan, USA in more complex devices Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Screen based  CRT  Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)  Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD)  Nano-Emission Display (NED)  e-Ink  Smart Materials Niche market early next this decade, might expand Variety of potential applications Today: USA, Japan (research) Tomorrow: USA, Japan Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Projection based  LCD Projectors Mostly a business/office market Retro projection also in consumer market but it will fade away under competition of Flat Screen Today: Japan, USA Tomorrow: Japan, USA Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Projection based  LCD Projectors  Micro Projectors Impact by the end of this decade. Suits mobile devices (battery constraints) Strong competition from symbiotic displays Today: USA (research) Tomorrow: Japan, USA Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Projection based  LCD Projectors  Micro Projectors  Holographic Projectors Unless a breakthrough happens within 2008 it will fade away under competition of other systems. Niche market (rather a curiosity market) Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA, Japan Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Projection based  LCD Projectors  Micro Projectors  Holographic Projectors  Laser on “fog” Larger and cheaper by the end of this decade Niche market (rather a curiosity market) today might expand in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Symbiotic  Laser based Projection on retina. Increased wear ability in the last part of this decade. Normal in the next. Niche market (blind, some gamers, pilots, surgeons,…) Today: USA Tomorrow: USA Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Symbiotic  Laser based  Retinal Implants Tied to evolution of bio electronics. Significant results to be expected by the end of this decade with major evolution in the next one. Niche market (certain kinds of blind people) Today: USA Tomorrow: USA Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Display – Symbiotic  Laser based  Retinal Implants  Cortical Implants Tied to evolution of bio electronics and cognitive science. Significant results by the end of this decade; major evolution in the next one. Competing with retinal implants in this decade; no competition in the next Niche market (certain kinds of blind people) Today: USA (research) Tomorrow: USA Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Printing  Paper-like printing  Object printing  Biological printing Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Printing – Paper-like  ink-jet printing definition exceeds demand by 2008 …in general quality will exceed demand micro printing, water marking – end of this decade consumer market (and business) Today: USA, Japan; Europe lagging behind Tomorrow: Japan, USA; Europe? Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Printing – Paper-like  ink-jet  laser printing price decreasing, still higher than ink-jet minor interest to micro printing and water marking because of tag use in the business env. mostly used in the business environment Today: Japan, USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Printing – Paper-like  ink-jet  laser printing  thermal printing low resolution, unlikely to increase significantly tampering robustness challenged by water marking and tag by the end of the decade mostly used in the business environment Today: no significant research going on Tomorrow: unlikely to change Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Printing – Paper-like  ink-jet  laser printing  thermal printing  electromagnetic printing (e-ink) will increase resolution, colors, switching time but unlikely to reach ink-jet, laser quality wireless update of information by end of decade competing with some low end display technology Today: USA (products, research), Japan (research) Tomorrow: Japan, USA Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Printing – Objects  laser printing lower cost by the end of this decade, not cheap professional market; unlikely to change niche applications, mock up, education Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ? Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Printing – Objects  laser printing  layered printing by the end of this decade: lower cost, faster printing, broader range of “inks”, integration with robots professional market; consumer market possible by the end of the next decade impacts on design, production, distribution Today: USA Tomorrow: open field Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Printing – Objects  laser printing  layered printing  self assembling increase in “productivity” with real industrial products early next decade seamless integration of self assembling into robotic production processes NED screens, nano scale memories… Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ? Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Printing – Biological material  2D printing increase in “productivity” with real industrial products second half this decade better tissue structuring skin (almost available), muscle (next decade)… Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe? Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Printing – Biological material  2D printing  3D printing creation of complex scaffolds (end of this decade) multiple tissue and structure printing (next decade) 3D tissues (early next decade), organs (?) Today: USA (research) Tomorrow: USA, Europe? Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Information Retrieval  How much information?  Variety of the information  Semantics of the information  Access to information  Semantics of the retrieval of information Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – How much info? Trajectories TB

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – How much info? Trajectories TB

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – How much info? Trajectories TB

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – How much info? Trajectories PB

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Variety Trajectories  Textual Information Evolution towards the association of context Retrieval evolves to take context into account by the next decade context will be the main “search” criteria. Textual search likely to fade away by the end of the next decade Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Variety Trajectories  Textual Information  Image Information More sophisticated tagging (automatic) by the end of this decade From retrieval through tagging to understanding of the image and its components (next decade) Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Variety Trajectories  Textual Information  Image Information  Video Information Similar evolution path of image retrieval Retrieval based on the tagging of reaction of viewers Plot understanding unlikely before 2020 Today: USA (security related research) Tomorrow: USA, Japan (animation tech. Research)

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Variety Trajectories  Textual Information  Image Information  Video Information  Sound Information Mostly based on tagging, retrieval of specific sounds. Unlikely to change. Very little research being done. Today: Japan, USA Tomorrow: Japan, USA

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Variety Trajectories  Textual Information  Image Information  Video Information  Sound Information  Voice Information Tied to voice recognition tech. for textual based retrieval. 99% rec. By Voice based retrieval by the end of next decade. Tied to cognitive science, context underst. Today: Europe, Japan, USA Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Info Semantics Trajectories  Tagged Information Evolution towards automatic tagging. International standardization groups for tagging Today: Europe, Japan, USA (vertical industries) Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Info Semantics Trajectories  Tagged Information  Interpreted Information Piggy back on tags (where available) + info understanding. Semantics associated to the information and in relationships (created when info is stored). Today: Europe, USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe (may lag behind)

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Info Semantics Trajectories  Tagged Information  Interpreted Information  Semantic Web Focus on relationships (previously created and determined in the retrieval process) International forum. Evolution based on basic tech. + more context Today: Europe, East Asia, USA (slightly ahead) Tomorrow: USA, East Asia, Europe ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Access Trajectories  Keypad Fit for textual information or tagged ones Widely used, it will remain so. Wider use of handwritten queries as handwriting recognition improves. Today: no significant research going on Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Access Trajectories  Keypad  Click Evolution towards “personalized clicks” Widely used, it will remain so. Progress in image recognition will further stimulate click based retrieval Gesture capture (eyes, hands...) as click Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Access Trajectories  Keypad  Click  Voice Increasingly used but it will not kill other access Voice interpretation adds semantics to the query in the second part of the next decade. Persons with disabilities, security and safety appl. Social applications requires institutional funding Today: Europe, USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Access Trajectories  Keypad  Click  Voice  Deferred Asynchronous and mediated retrieval. Will see a significant growth in the next decade. Agent based technologies and Profiling. Significant service opportunities (consumer, Biz) Today: USA (mostly research) Tomorrow: open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics Trajectories  Context dependent information Increase in the query “span” and in answer “filtering” provides great value beyond 2008 “Sensing” by 2008, “understanding” beyond 2015 Significant service opportunities (consumer, Biz) Today: USA (mostly research) Tomorrow: open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics Trajectories  Context dependent information  Agent based retrieval Agent performing trivial tasks but also increasingly using understanding on the query International forum on agent interfacing Applications in vertical segments (e-citizen, …) Today: USA (mostly research) Tomorrow: open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics Trajectories  Context dependent information  Agent based retrieval  Personalization of information Significant evolution by Strong impact in the next decade. Evolution continues in the next decade on the level of intelligence in the personalization. Person + context based in the next decade - SIM - WPAN Today: USA, Europe (tailing close) Tomorrow: open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics Trajectories  Context dependent information  Agent based retrieval  Personalization of information  Negotiation of information Slow evolution conditioned by level of trust Widespread application in the next decade with significant impact from 2015 on. Likely to be used in the interim as “assistant” Evolution Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: USA, Europe

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Communications  Paradigms  Evolution of connectivity  Transmission related technologies / infrastructures

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Paradigms Trajectories  Broadcast  Television

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Paradigms Trajectories  Broadcast  Television  Peer to Peer over Broadcast

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Paradigms Trajectories  Broadcast  Television  Peer to Peer over Broadcast  Multicast

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Paradigms Trajectories  Broadcast  Time Sharing

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Paradigms Trajectories  Broadcast  Time Sharing  Client Server

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Paradigms Trajectories  Broadcast  Time Sharing  Client Server  Peer to Peer

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Paradigms Trajectories  Broadcast  Time Sharing  Client Server  Peer to Peer  Cluster to cluster

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Paradigms Trajectories  Broadcast  Time Sharing  Client Server  Peer to Peer  Cluster to cluster  Sticker

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Connectivity Evolution Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Connectivity Evolution  Wire is better than wireless (technically) Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Connectivity Evolution  Wire is better than wireless (technically)  Wireless is better than wired (humans) Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications - Connectivity Evolution  Wire is better than wireless (technically)  Wireless is better than wired (humans)  Flatter networks  Till 1980ies Electromechanical Exchanges  Electronic exchanges  … Router, Bridges, Add Drop…  … Full optical networks?  … Mesh Networks, Terminals Networks? Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures Trajectories  wire-based transmission Top Speed: 10s TB by 2010, 100s by 2020 Evolution: optoelectronics, optical switching, autonomic systems Metropolitan networks: ring > star >> mesh Today: USA (leading), Japan, Europe Tomorrow: ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures Trajectories  wire-based transmission  wireless based transmission Architectural evolution towards a mix of technologies Software Radio, UWB Picocells by 2008 Interference managed by terminals (?) 2020 Today: Europe, USA, Japan (all leading…) Tomorrow: USA (leading?), Europe, Japan, China ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures Trajectories  wire-based transmission  wireless based transmission  Switching technologies switching, routers/bridges  Switching in terminals and network edges Optical switching (?) in the next decade Today: USA, Japan (research), Europe (lagging) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, Europe

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Bandwidth  Transport technologies  Edge technologies  Terminal technologies Trajectories

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Transport Technologies Trajectories  Wire-based local loop  Copper based Leveling out by end of this decade, 100s Mbps Losing out to fiber in the next decade Entertainment, Internetting, Always on services Today: Korea, Japan, Europe, USA Tomorrow: Europe, USA (K&J will swap to fiber)

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Transport Technologies Trajectories  Wire-based local loop  Copper based  Fiber based Niche penetration in this decade, slowly substituting copper in the next one Different strategies in different environments Architecture evolution (PON, Star, Mesh…) Entertainment, Internetting, Always on services Today: Japan, USA, Europe Tomorrow: open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Transport Technologies Trajectories  Wire-based local loop  Copper based  Fiber based  Coaxial cable based Depends on status of existing cable TV infrastr. Strong competition from xDSL in most markets Entertainment, Internetting (problems for up-link) Today: USA, Japan & Europe (in specific areas) Tomorrow: declining

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Transport Technologies Trajectories  Wire-based local loop  Wireless local loop  WiFi cluster spreading out through this this decade, 100s Mbps Competition with UWB in the next decade in home environment Internetting, home connectivity Today: USA, others are followers Tomorrow: unlikely to change, but for emergence of Korea

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Transport Technologies Trajectories  Wire-based local loop  Wireless local loop  WiFi cluster  Pulse based cluster from 2008 on, 480 Mbps Winning competition with WiFi and Bluetooth in the next decade in home environment home connectivity, pico-cells, sensors networks Today: USA, others are followers Tomorrow: USA, Europe ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Transport Technologies Trajectories  Wire-based local loop  Wireless local loop  WiFi cluster  Pulse based cluster  LMDS like focused application in this decades, mostly Biz possible extension in the next decade Connectivity in the last mile(s) Today: USA Tomorrow: USA

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Transport Technologies Trajectories  Wire-based local loop  Wireless local loop  WiFi cluster  Pulse based cluster  LMDS like  Cellular 2G and 3G likely to coexist for next 10 years Software radio as disruption, 4G? Broadband (limited) on the move Today: Japan, Europe, USA Tomorrow: open field

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Transport Technologies Trajectories  Wire-based local loop  Wireless local loop  WiFi cluster  Pulse based cluster  LMDS like  Cellular  Satellite Marginal, focused contribution Broadband to isolated spots Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, China ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Edge technologies Trajectories  GRID Increasing speed overcoming protocol limits High speed for niche applications, extending the offer to some business in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan ?, Europe ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Edge Technologies Trajectories  GRID  Mirroring Increasing importance affecting ntwk.architectures Research in the network architecture, mirroring, shadowing, data relations Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe ? (risk lagging behind)

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Terminal Technologies Trajectories  Cashing Common practice by the end of this decade, significant impact in the next one Seamless cashing through discontinuous networks Research on SW, profiling, artificial intelligence Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Bandwidth – Terminal Technologies Trajectories  Cashing  Local storage Common by this decade end Impact on network architectures (transaction traffic and burst traffic) and Biz models Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Human Interfacing Trajectories  Human to human interfacing  Human to machine interfacing

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Human Interfacing – Human to Human Trajectories  Real time translation Getting out of prototyping stage by decade end Significant impact in the next decade No substitution on sight of the human translator Research in voice recognition, profiling, language understanding, AI, cognitive science, agents Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take a stronger lead.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Human Interfacing – Human to Human Trajectories  Real time translation  Expert to layperson Prototypes early next decade, applications in the second half. Research in expert systems, machine understanding, cognitive science Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Human Interfacing – Human to Human Trajectories  Real time translation  Expert to layperson  Avatar to people communication Autonomous avatar by the end of this decade Delegation may take place later in the next one Research on rendering, affective computing, plus advances in basic computational technologies Today: USA, Japan (for enabling tech) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Human Interfacing – Human to Machine Trajectories  Human-like interface Significant progress but will not dominate the communication paradigm Dominate only in focused areas (next decade) Research on rendering, affective computing Today: USA, Japan (for enabling tech) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Human Interfacing – Human to Machine Trajectories  Human-like interface  Interaction Design Significant contribution by the last part of this decade, from niches to all products/services Research in cognitive science, pragmatics, human observation, engineering Need to create and Interaction Design culture Today: USA, Europe, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Human Interfacing – Human to Machine Trajectories  Human-like interface  Interaction Design  Ambient mediated interfacing First applications by the end of this decade Profound impact in the next one By 2020 AMI will be the norm Research as in other areas of HI plus on intelligent ambient, cooperating objects. Today: USA, East Asia (research) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, Europe

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Data Capturing Trajectories  From Atoms to Bits  Identifying objects  Capture meaning  Sensing the environment  Networking the environment

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits Trajectories  Capturing shapes  2D surfaces A commodity today for A3 size and smaller Much larger scanning through laser technologies targeted to Biz, unlikely to decrease in price Satellite photography will become a commodity Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits Trajectories  Capturing shapes  2D surfaces  3D objects Evolution in devices, processes and algorithms Laser, aerophotogrammes, spaced satellite photos Targeted to Biz, will remain costly Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits Trajectories  Capturing shapes  2D surfaces  3D objects  movements Evolution in devices, processes and algorithms Multiple video cameras and contour recognition Haptic interfaces Targeted to Biz, will remain costly, cheap applications in gaming, education and training Today: USA (mostly), Europe, Japan (gaming) Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits Trajectories  Capturing shapes  Capturing writing From “Graffiti” to normal writing by end of decade “Scribbling” remains a problem well into next one Research profiling, context understanding Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits Trajectories  Capturing shapes  Capturing writing  Capturing sounds Improved capacity to discriminate sound and isolate sources. Melodies and voice identification by end of decade Security concerns drive research for timbre recognition, identification (next decade in a non controlled environment) Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: USA (stronger lead), Europe, Japan.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits Trajectories  Capturing shapes  Capturing writing  Capturing sounds  Capturing sensations Touch, acceleration, smell, taste… Better accuracy, less cumbersome, cheaper Evolution of haptic, bio-electronics, laser sensing,… Biz applications and mass market Today: USA (leading), Japan Tomorrow: USA (Biz), Japan (consumer market)

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Identifying Objects Trajectories  Reading tags Increase reach, parallel reading, spotting Significant impact in the next decade Reader embedded in many devices (cellphones) Research in microelectronics, radio propagation, software (profiling) Today: USA; Japan & Europe (lagging behind) Tomorrow: unlikely to change.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Identifying Objects Trajectories  Reading tags  Bio-identification Evolution towards more practical ways of capture data. A common way of identification in the next decade Research under security concern pressure Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: USA may take a strong lead.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Identifying Objects Trajectories  Reading tags  Bio-identification  Spotting Evolution towards more accuracy and spotting in complex environments Available to institution early next decade. To service provider for consumers by its end. Groundbreaking research in LifeLog Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: USA will take a strong lead.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Capture “meaning” Trajectories  Capturing emotions Infancy stage today will evolve significantly in the next decade: evolution towards easier capture, cheap sensors, quick response time Capturing of images (moving/still), aural, context and motion data. Bio-parameters Research in AI, cognitive science, profiling Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA leading in applications, Japan leading in capturing devices

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Capture “meaning” Trajectories  Capturing emotions  Tracking “attention” first applications in the second part of this decade Evolution towards less cumbersome settings, higher accuracy, context evaluation Application in safety, education, training… Today: USA Tomorrow: USA benefiting from strong funding to security related research

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Capture “meaning” Trajectories  Capturing emotions  Tracking “attention”  Voice understanding Viable in the first part of the next decade Evolution towards better understanding of context and comprehensive understanding in a “normal” environment Research in complex systems relations Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead thanks to security related research funded

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment Trajectories  Scalar parameters More and more variety of sensors’ capabilities One chip for sensing, processing, communicating In the next decade flexibility with SW Radio Research in basic electronics, bio, mesh networks Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take a stronger lead.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment Trajectories  Scalar parameters  Vector parameters Evolution parallel the scalar sensors. Vector indication derived from outside in this decade, from within in the next decade Research electronics, mesh networks, … Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take the lead.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment Trajectories  Scalar parameters  Vector parameters  Bio-sensing Evolution toward better accuracy, easier integration In the next decade sensors will interact with the environment Research in bio-electronics, biology, engineering Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Networking the Environment Trajectories  Sensors’ networks Ongoing research. First autonomous networks by the end of this decade. Evolution towards increased local processing and adaptability. Smart dust beyond Leverage on sensors evolution. Research in autonomous systems Today: USA Tomorrow: USA likely to continue to lead.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Data Capturing – Networking the Environment Trajectories  Sensors’ networks  Track-and-follow networks Clustering a variety of technologies. Evolution towards better accuracy in wider environments. Research in image recognition, coordination of communication environments… Applications in security, monitoring, safety…. Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Technologies Trajectories Pin Pointing Trajectories  Location awareness  Tracking

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Pin Pointing – Location Awareness Trajectories  Satellite based GPS, Glonass, Galileo Evolution in the receiver part: cheaper, embedded Cost no more an issue beyond 2015 Applications in security, monitoring, safety…. Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: Europe may levarage on Galileo to take a strong lead. US “based” chips

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Pin Pointing – Location Awareness Trajectories  Satellite based  Cell based Cellular, WiFi, UWB, Beacons: mostly indoor Cost free on the receiving end Applications in education, tourism… Today: Europe, Japan Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA?

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Pin Pointing – Location Awareness Trajectories  Satellite based  Cell based  Tag based Location provided by tag or by tag related info Evolution in the tag readers Applications in production and delivery processes Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Pin Pointing – Tracking Trajectories  Tag based Bar code replacement by end of this decade Evolution towards cheaper prices (1 c by the end of this decade) Applications in production processes, delivery, controlled environment (e.g. health care) Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Pin Pointing – Tracking Trajectories  Tag based  Satellite based Combine with communication return link Evolution towards decreasing cost of the receiver/transponder, miniaturization. Applications in security, monitoring, safety, distribution chain…. Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe may take leadership.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Pin Pointing – Tracking Trajectories  Tag based  Satellite based  Image based Spotting, (identification), tracking Evolution towards interpretation of “behavior”, feasibility in complex environment Research in image recognition, Artificial intelligence, coordination of communication environments… Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead.

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions  Transformation of Products into Services  The Disappearance of the Computer  Ubiquitous seamless connectivity  Changing Traffic Patterns  Infinite Bandwidth  Disposable Products  Autonomous Systems  From Content to Packaging  The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 From Products to Services

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 From Products to Services  Technological Enabling Factors  Embedding of communications capabilities  Rising of profiling  Cheaper production processes

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 From Products to Services  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Products becoming commodities  Loss of differentiation capabilities  Increased copycat possibilities

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 From Products to Services  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Transformation into service companies  Shortening of products’ life cycle  Strong increase in call centers  Automated customised assistance  Increased globalisation of the market  Restructuring of the value chain

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 From Products to Services  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Health care  Entertainment  Transportation  Consumer appliances  Education  …

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 From Products to Services  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Likeliness to happen  Disruption is already occurring  Connectivity bundled as a service feature  Appliance bundled in connectivity

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions The Disappearance of the Computer

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions The Disappearance of the Computer  Technological Enabling Factors  Diminished cost  System on Chip  Wearable Computers  Increase in connectivity and ubiquitous access

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions The Disappearance of the Computer  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Need to increase volumes  Need to increase flexibility  Need to provide easier use

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions The Disappearance of the Computer  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Skill to exploit processing capability in any object  New level of competences required  New actors in the value chain

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions The Disappearance of the Computer  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market sectors affected  Appliances  Household environment  Transportation  Security  Environment  Information Retrieval  …

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions The Disappearance of the Computer  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market sectors affected  Likeliness to happen  Thresholds of processing power >> starting 2005  Dramatic cost reduction >> early next decade  Final demise of the PC >> beyond 2015

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity  Technological Enabling Factors  Increased connection capabilities for any object  Variety of Infrastructures  WPAN  Software Radio

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Mature market moving towards flat rate  Demand for transparency  Bundling communication into services & goods

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Shift from connectivity to service  Bundling of services  Seamless Service Hopping  Crucial importance of profiling  Embedded connectivity demand  Increasing opportunities to offer new services

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Communications providers  Goods producers  Resellers areas, malls, shops…

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Likeliness to happen  A “sure thing”: not if but when and how

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Changing Traffic Patterns  Technological Enabling Factors  Huge amount of local storage  Sensors, tags  Digital camcorders, cameras…  Agent communications

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Changing Traffic Patterns  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Growth of peer to peer  Flat rate and always on

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Changing Traffic Patterns  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry impact  Push towards the transition from ADSL to VDSL  Transition towards an optical access  Always on wireless connectivity

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Changing Traffic Patterns  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry impact  Market Sectors Affected  Telecom Operators  Advertisement

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Changing Traffic Patterns  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry impact  Market Sectors Affected  Likeliness to happen  Asynchronous traffic patterns  Bottlenecks in the metropolitan network  Wireless traffic

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)  Measuring vs perceiving Bandwidth  Fixed lines – Backbones – local loop  Wireless – untethered connectivity  Local storage

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)  Technological Enabling Factors  Advances in theoretical studies on propagation  Terminals as network nodes  Cognitive Radio  Software Radio  Mesh Networks

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Need for ubiquitous connectivity  Emergence of a variety of local operators  Great variety in traffic demand

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Incumbent Mobile Operators  New Mobile Operators  Service and Product industry  Regulatory Framework

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Wearable Devices  Any Mobile Object  Healthcare  Education  Environment monitoring  ….

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Likeliness to happen  Increased spectrum availability  Unlimited bandwidth capacity

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Disposable Products Today

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Disposable Products  Technological Enabling Factors  Diminished cost of production “per item”  Increased flexibility and customisazion  3D Printers  Long lasting batteries  Short range embedded connectivity

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Disposable Products  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Faster pace of fashion and design  Shift from products to services  Function oriented interface

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Disposable Products  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Evolution in the value chain  Faster evolution cycles  Evolution in customer care

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Disposable Products  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Small Appliances  Soft Services

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Disposable Products  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Likeliness to happen  Fashion branded objecs  Disposable objects

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Autonomous Systems (***) (***) from Microsoft Document on Internetworking (*) (**) (**) from Intelligent Autonomous System Lab – University of West England (*) from NASA

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Autonomous Systems  Technological Enabling Factors  Increased processing power in objects  Increased flexibility in terminals  Agent technologies  Ad hoc communications networks  Local world mirroring

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Autonomous Systems  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Sensors and sensors’ networks  Overall increased complexity  Heterogeneous systems  Fast asynchronous evolution

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Autonomous Systems  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Network Operators  Virtual Network Operators  Service Providers  Engineering

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Autonomous Systems  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Telecommunications  Enterprises’ processes support backbones  Environmental enterprises and institutions  Customer relationship

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Autonomous Systems  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Likeliness to happen  On a small scale  Large scale autonomous systems  Commodity autonomous systems  Enterprise wide autonomous systems

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions From Content to Packaging (*) (*)

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions From Content to Packaging  Technological Enabling Factors  Diminished cost of content production  Consumer produced information digital cameras digital camcorders personal web servers  Information as by product  Multimedia and multimode  Profiling

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions From Content to Packaging  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Abundance of information  Need to get rid of information  Difficulty in controlling the content

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions From Content to Packaging  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Content Industry  Packaging industry  Telecommunication industry

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions From Content to Packaging  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Electronic Entertainment  Information providers sector  Knowledge management sector  Continuous education

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions From Content to Packaging  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Likeliness to happen  Transition has started towards packaging offer  Full impact in the next decade

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Emergence of Virtual Infrastructures (*) (*)

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Emergence of Virtual Infrastructures  Technological Enabling Factors  Ubiquitous seamless comm. infrastructures WiFi, UWB Software Radio Multimode terminals WPAN  Wireless Broadband  Increased Local Storage  Agents’ Technologies  Intelligent Ambient  Mixed Reality Technologies

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Emergence of Virtual Infrastructures  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Globalization of business  Increased circulation of people  Leveraging global investment

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Emergence of Virtual Infrastructures  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Telecom Operators  Virtual Telecom Operators  Consumer Electronics  Computer Industry

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Emergence of Virtual Infrastructures  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Personal Productivity  Entertainment  Delivery Chain  Customer Care

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Disruptions Emergence of Virtual Infrastructures  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Likeliness to happen  Few application niches within this decade  Full impact felt in the next decade

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Building the Future  Crucial Technologies  Ambient Evolution  Five Challenges

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Five Challenges  De-localized Innovation, localized application

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Five Challenges  De-localized Innovation, localized application  Making an impact across market segments

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Five Challenges  De-localized Innovation, localized application  Making an impact across market segments  ROI

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Five Challenges  De-localized Innovation, localized application  Making an impact across market segments  ROI  Fore-sighting

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003 Five Challenges  De-localized Innovation, localized application  Making an impact across market segments  ROI  Fore-sighting  The Grand Plan and Micro Actors

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