With the uncertainties and risks of climate change, is it more rational to oppose action, or to demand action? Are you so sure that you'd bet your family's lives on doing nothing? We only get to play this game once. How lucky do you feel? Get informed, and let it change you. The Manpollo Project

First off, no one’s perfect. So any choice you make brings with it a risk if your choice turns out to be a mistake. Given that, which risk would you rather take: listen to the activists and take big action now, risking the possible harm to the economy that the skeptics warn us about, listen to the skeptics and don’t take big action or “You can never be 100% certain, so EVERY CHOICE CARRIES A RISK. Activists warn: Upheaval and destruction. Skeptics warn: severe economic harm.” The Manpollo Project

Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real Turns out to be False sometime in the future Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real Turns out to be False sometime in the future Turns out to be True sometime in the future Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real A take action Turns out to be False sometime in the future Turns out to be True sometime in the future Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real A take action B take no action Turns out to be False sometime in the future Turns out to be True sometime in the future Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real A take action B take no action Turns out to be False sometime in the future Most pessimistic view: there’s significant harm to the economy, with no positive benefits. Turns out to be True sometime in the future Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real A take action B take no action Turns out to be False sometime in the future Most pessimistic view: there’s significant harm to the economy, with no positive benefits. Turns out to be True sometime in the future We’ve still got the economic costs, but everyone’s okay with that, because we saved our cookies. Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real A take action B take no action Turns out to be False sometime in the future most pessimistic view: there’s significant harm to the economy, with no positive benefits. Everybody celebrates: the skeptics because they were right, and the activists because it wasn’t the end of the world after all. Turns out to be True sometime in the future We’ve still got the economic costs, but everyone’s okay with that, because we saved our cookies. Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real A take action B take no action Turns out to be False sometime in the future Most pessimistic view: there’s significant harm to the economy, with no positive benefits. Everybody celebrates: the skeptics because they were right, and the activists because it wasn’t the end of the world after all. Turns out to be True sometime in the future We’ve still got the economic costs, but everyone’s okay with that, because we saved our cookies. Most pessimistic view: environmental, political, social, public health, and economic disasters — on a global scale. Decision making when things are unclear The Manpollo Project

We are currently discussing which row is correct Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real A take action B take no action Turns out to be False sometime in the future Most pessimistic view: there’s significant harm to the economy, with no positive benefits. Everybody celebrates: the skeptics because they were right, and the activists because it wasn’t the end of the world after all. Turns out to be True sometime in the future We’ve still got the economic costs, but everyone’s okay with that, because we saved our cookies. Most pessimistic view: environmental, political, social, public health, and economic disasters — on a global scale. Nobody can say for sure what the future holds Conclusion: We cannot really base any decision on this! The Manpollo Project

We need to focus on the columns instead! Assumption: Human caused Global Warming (GW) is real A take action B take no action Turns out to be False sometime in the future Most pessimistic view: there’s significant harm to the economy, with no positive benefits. Everybody celebrates: the skeptics because they were right, and the activists because it wasn’t the end of the world after all. Turns out to be True sometime in the future We’ve still got the economic costs, but everyone’s okay with that, because we saved our cookies. Most pessimistic view: environmental, political, social, public health, and economic disasters — on a global scale The Manpollo Project

The grid by itself isn’t a silver bullet. Really, it’s just basic risk management. “What’s the wisest thing to do, given the uncertainties and the risks?” to the real question “Are humans affecting the climate?” But what it does do is it allows us to make a decision using uncertain knowledge by changing the question from The Manpollo Project

All the videos Wonderingmind43/Greg Craven produced are available here: Or via the Manpollo Project site which also features a forum: (includes an index – you should at least watch “How it all Ends”) The scripts can also be downloaded as a zip-archive: The Manpollo Project