UMAC data callpage 1 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF EMC Operational Models North American Mesoscale (NAM) Modeling System Geoff DiMego, MMB Chief, and Eric Rogers, Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP

UMAC data callpage 2 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Content Description of the current modeling system and its data assimilation components. Future plans for the next 5 years. Existing model verification statistics documentation and associated web sites. Sources and selection of requirements and development path.

UMAC data callpage 3 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Current System Description A full description of the current NAM modeling & data assimilation system with full references can be found at Parent runs over continent at 12 km Runs out to 84 hr four times per day Model top is 2 mb with 60 vertical layers Inline 1-way interactive nests cover CONUS at 4km, Alaska at 6km, Hawaii at 3km and Puerto Rico at 3km, and run out to 60 hr A placeable “Fire Weather” nest runs out to 36 hr at 1.33km when placed inside CONUS nest or at 1.5km when placed inside Alaska nest

UMAC data callpage 4 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF CFSv3 Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – ARW Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – NMMB 3D URMA / RUA / AoR ARW HRRRE members CONUS and Alaska NMMB HRRRE members CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico NMMB Storm Scale Ensemble members within CONUS and/or Alaska GDAS GFS GEFS Hurricane NAMext S R E F S R E F S R E F S R E F RTOFS Original March 2013 Projection for End State of 2 petaflop WCOSS ~2018

UMAC data callpage 5 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Start of WCOSS Phase1 ~Current End of WCOSS Phase 1 ~2016 End of WCOSS-era 2 petaflop Machine SREF continental scale WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, NMMB WRF-ARW & NMMB 7 each = 21 members 16 km 10 each = 20 members ~12 km 10 each = 20 members ~9 km (parent) 35 levels 6 hourly to 84 hr levels NARRE-TL run hourly to 18 hr 6 hourly to 84 hr levels NARRE run hourly to 24 hr 6 hourly to 96 hr Product streams for all scales will need to be added, consolidated, repurposed & renamed. Products may have later delivery times. Convection-Allowing-Scale Irregular suite of guidance 3-6km [HiResWindows & NAM nests] ~6 hourly to 48/60 hr for CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR Single hourly 3 km HRRR & NAM nest Run to 15 hr for CONUS Upgrade irregular suite to ~3 km 6 hourly to 48/60 hr for CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR HRRRE Multiple hourly 3 km Run hourly to 24 hr 6 hourly extended to 60 hr for CONUS, Alaska, Hi, PR Storm Scale Single placeable sub-nest km Run 6 hourly to 36 hr Single placeable/movable sub-nest km Run 6 hourly to 36 hr Multiple placeable/movable sub-nests: ~1 km run hourly to 18 hr and Run 6 hourly to 36 hr Original: Mesoscale Ensembles Replace Regional Deterministic Guidance WILL BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE

UMAC data callpage 6 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Plans for the future-1: All regional guidance moving to ensemble basis Following the “Way Forward” laid out in the May 2010 NWS/OST White Paper by Eckel, Glahn, Hamill, Joslyn, Lapenta & MassWhite Paper Continental scale covering North America and adjacent waters at ~9-12km will be called the Standard Resolution Ensemble Forecast [SREF] system. This new SREF will subsume: – the current RAP, – the current NAM, – the current SREF [Short Range Ensemble Fcst], – the current NARRE-TL. The acronym NARRE will no longer be used.

UMAC data callpage 7 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Plans for the future-2: All regional guidance moving to ensemble basis The convection-allowing scale ensemble suite will be made up of smaller fixed-domain runs [possibly inline nested] at ~3km and will be called the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast [HREF see more here].here HREF domains will include at least CONUS and Alaska with Hawaii and Puerto Rico possible. HREF will subsume: – the current HiResWindow (except Guam), – the current NAM nests, – the upcoming NAMRR nests [see much more here],here – the current CONUS HRRR, – the upcoming Alaskan HRRR. Prior systems & acronyms HRRRE, NSSE, and NCASE will no longer be used.

UMAC data callpage 8 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) will be pursued by a small number of placeable fixed and/or moving nests at ~1km or better. SSEF will subsume NAM’s Fire Weather / IMET Support nests. SREF (possibly not), HREF, and any SSEF nests embedded within its members, will run [at least] hourly and make short range forecasts to ~24hr Both SREF and HREF forecasts at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z will be run to longer ranges: – SREF to 84 or 96hr – HREF nests to 48 or 60hr. Plans for the future-3: All regional guidance moving to ensemble basis

UMAC data callpage 9 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF NAM Model verification statistics and web sites Variables routinely verified against sfc obs: –Accumulated precipitation (3-h/24-h) –Shelter T/Td/RH and 10-m wind –Sea-level pressure Variables routinely verified against upper-air obs: –Heights –Temperature –Wind –Specific & Relative Humidity Sensible weather quantities against obs: –CAPE, CIN, Visibility, Ceiling Height, cloud amount, PBL height Grid versus grid [analysis]: –Reflectivity (composite, 1 km, hybrid scan), echo top

UMAC data callpage 10 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Models Routinely Verified courtesy of Perry Shafran Models verified using Grid2obs –NAM –NAM nests (CONUS, AK, HI, PR) –HiResWindow –SREF –RAP –HRRR –GFS –DGEX –RTMA (CONUS, AK, HI, PR) –URMA –Fire-weather nest –Smartinit –NGAC –CMAQ (Ozone and PM) Models using Grid2grid –NAM (cloud, firewx, reflectivity, URMA –NAM CONUS nest(cloud, echo top, firewx, URMA) –HiResWindow (cloud, echo top, reflectivity, URMA) –RAP (cloud, reflectivity, URMA) –HRRR (cloud, firewx, reflectivity, URMA) –GFS (cloud) –SREF –NAEFS –GEFS –CMC –HYSPLIT (smoke and dust)

UMAC data callpage 11 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Precipitation Verification at EMC courtesy of Ying Lin Contingency table-based statistics (from which ETS, bias, probability of detection, extremal dependence indices and many other scores can be computed, with statistical significance) and SL1L2 calculations. 24-hrly and 3-hrly for NCEP operational models and parallel model runs; 24-hrly for international models. Fractions skill scores for NCEP opnl and para model runs. Monthly/month-to-date scores for NCEP and international models (updated daily): Recent verification stats for mesoscale opnl vs. para models (updated daily): Daily side-by-side precip forecast (opnl and para, int'l) vs. analysis page:

UMAC data callpage 12 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF NAM model verification statistics and web sites Cumulative statistics by season and/or experiment for NAM parallel tests, listed on NAM parallel log page, see for NAM 2014 implementation Precipitation Daily 24-h QPF model vs observed plots : OPS vs Parallel NAM : Surface / upper air verification NAM vs GFS vs RAP OPS vs Parallel NAM : andhttp:// (internal NCEP use only)

UMAC data callpage 13 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Web sites describing NAM upgrades and their associated performance Cumulative & comprehensive on-line list of all major Mesoscale Modeling Branch implementations since 1993, including links to Technical Procedures Bulletins, Decision Briefings to the NCEP Director, and all MMB presentations for annual NCEP Production Suite Reviews since 2003 :

UMAC data callpage 14 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Sources of Requirements Feedback from monthly meetings with NCEP Service Centers (SPC, WPC, AWC) Feedback from monthly Synergy meeting with NCEP Centers and NWS Regions Feedback from NCEP Centers, NWS Regions at the annual NCEP Production Suite Review Attendance and interactions at testbed experiments and projects (SPC/NSSL Spring Program, WPC/HMT Winter Weather Experiment and Flash Flood Experiment) Assessment of model performance by the EMC Model Evaluation Group (MEG) Direct contact on model problems by users from NWS or private sector

UMAC data callpage 15 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Sources of Requirements [Common throughout MMB] Developer’s own discovery of forecast deficiency or bugs Forecaster/customer direct feedback Weekly MEG briefings Monthly meetings with NCEP centers (SPC, WPC, AWC) Monthly SYNERGY meetings List-serve / forums Testbed experiments & projects [e.g. SPC/NSSL Spring Program, WPC/HWT Flash FLood & Winter Wx experiments and AWC Aviation Testbed] Bi-annual Friends+Partners [aka Family of Services] meetings Annual NCEP Production Suite Review Ideas / hot topics from workshop, conferences and literatures

UMAC data callpage 16 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Selection of development path Requirements / capabilities of evolving model system Prioritized by needs of shareholders, in-house expertise, resource constraints Specific NAM examples QPF biases : addressed by internal expertise (convection, microphysics) with close interactions with NCEP/NWS customers via weekly meetings and MEG Aviation issues : internal-external collaboration with AWC to identify and address NAM deficiencies in ceiling height and visibility

UMAC data callpage 17 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Development Path [Common within MMB] To match most egregious shortcoming to ‘available’ expertise and/or mature techniques from literature / research community. By ‘available’, we mean the expertise is purely internal (EMC developers), an internal-external collaboration / partnership (such as DTC and other NCEP centers), or imported (visitor program). If no "low-hanging fruit" or "shovel-ready" techniques to transition, then the next most egregious shortcoming would be considered for the next upgrade bundle.

UMAC data callpage 18 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF EMC Operational Models High Resolution Window Matthew Pyle Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP

UMAC data callpage 19 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF HiResWindow: Recent Chronology of Operations at NCEP Pre-WRF NMM at NCEP February 2002: HiResWindow runs upgraded to use 8 km NMM replaces 10 km Eta (hydrostatic)HiResWindow WRF ARW & NMM at NCEP September 2004: HiResWindow the first operational WRF v1.3 in NCEP prod suite: 8 km NMM & 10 km ARW replace single 8 km pre-WRF NMMHiResWindow June 2005: HiResWindow upgraded to 5.1 km NMM & 5.8 km ARW with explicit convectionHiResWindow September 2007: HiResWindow expanded domain, upgrade to WRFv km NMM km ARWHiResWindow March 2011:HiResWindow upgrade to WRFv3.2, add Guam runs, expand PR, add bufr soundingsHiResWindow WRF ARW + NEMS NMM at NCEP June 2014: HiResWindow upgrade NEMS-NMMB replaces WRF-NMM, full CONUS & Alaska twice per day, increase horizontal resolution,35->40 levels, RRTM, WSM6 & Ferrier-Aligo June 2014 Other NMM at NCEP April 2004 thru present: for SPC and the NSSL/SPC Spring Program, expanding & evolving routine daily developmental runs of ~4 km WRF- NMM with explicit convectionNSSL/SPC Spring Program

UMAC data callpage 20 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Current Overview 3-4 km grid spacing, no parameterized convection Two dynamical models: WRF-ARW and NEMS-NMMB, each with its own physics suite Twice daily runs to 48 h over CONUS and four non- CONUS domains [Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Guam] Initialized from RAP (CONUS) and GFS (non-CONUS) analyses Complements the NAM nests, helping to provide a variety (multi-model, multi-analysis) of high-resolution model solutions in the NCEP suite, forming a pseudo-ensemble. Makes up 4/7 of SPC’s Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity [SSEO].

UMAC data callpage 21 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Current Overview 06Z,18Z 00Z,12Z + Guam 00Z,12Z 3.6 km NMMB 4.2 km WRF-ARW 3 km NMMB 3.5 km WRF-ARW HI/Guam/PR : 3 km NMMB 3.8 km WRF- ARW 00Z,12Z

UMAC data callpage 22 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF HiResWindow Configurations (No Parameterized Convection) Dynamic Core NEMS-NMM August 2013 WRF-ARW v3.5 Horizontal Spacing km km Vertical Domain 40 levels 50 mb top Sigma-Pressure 40 levels 50 mb top Sigma PBL/TurbulenceMYJYSU MicrophysicsFerrier-AligoWSM6 Land-SurfaceNOAH Radiation (Shortwave/Longwave) RRTM/RRTMDudhia/RRTM Advection of Passive Variables Conservative Positive Definite Monotonic Positive Definite

UMAC data callpage 23 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Future Plans Most HiResWindow forecasts and product generation to be subsumed by HREF - a multi- model ensemble run at convection allowing scales (see NAM slides). HiResWindow for Guam will likely continue to run in current configuration (single WRF-ARW and single NMMB run).

UMAC data callpage 24 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Verification Surface and upper-air verification: Precipitation verification: Longer-term comparisons of surface, upper air, and precipitation just between WRF- ARW and NMMB within HiResWindow ul6lAQFWiJRyZO-n5Z5TgDfu9GozuBpPR5E/edit?usp=sharing

UMAC data callpage 25 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Sources of Requirements [Common within MMB] Forecaster/user direct feedback Weekly MEG briefings Monthly meetings with appropriate NCEP centers Monthly SYNERGY meetings List-serve/forums Testbed experiments & projects [e.g. SPC/NSSL Spring Program, WPC/HWT Flash FLood & Winter Wx experiments and AWC Aviation Testbed] Bi-annual Friends+Partners [aka Family of Services] meetings Annual NCEP Production Suite Review Ideas / hot topics from workshop, conferences and literatures Developer’s own discovery of forecast deficiency or bugs

UMAC data callpage 26 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Development Path [Common within MMB] To match most egregious shortcoming to ‘available’ expertise and/or mature techniques from literature / research community. By ‘available’, we mean the expertise is purely internal (EMC developers), an internal-external collaboration / partnership (such as DTC and other NCEP centers), or imported (visitor program). If no "low-hanging fruit" or "shovel-ready" techniques to transition, then the next most egregious shortcoming would be considered for the next upgrade bundle.

UMAC data callpage 27 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF EMC Operational Models Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Jun Du Meteorologist, Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP

UMAC data callpage 28 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Configuration: 16km, L40, 26 members, 0-87hr, North America domain, 4 cycles per day (03, 09, 15 and 21z) IC uncertainty: multi-analysis (no own DA but directly using NDAS, GFS, RR), blended perturbation (regional Breeding + global EnKF), multi-LBCs from GEFS (updated 3hrly) Physics uncertainty: multi-model (nmmb and arw), multi-physics, quasi- stochastic physics Post-processing: bias correction and downscaling Products: individual members, mean, spread, probability, percentiles, range, member ranking, clusters Chronology of SREF implementations can be found at Description of SREF

UMAC data callpage 29 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Recent Chronology of NMM & ARW in SREF in Operations at NCEP December 2005: Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system adds WRFv2.0: 3 members each of 40 km NMM & 45 km ARWShort Range Ensemble Forecasting October 2009: SREF upgrade to WRFv2.2.1, bias corrected, add 2 members each, and increase resolution to 32 km NMM & 35 km ARWSREFbias corrected August 2012: SREF upgrade to WRF v3.3, all members 16km & 35 lvl, drop Eta&RSM, add NEMS-NMMB, use 3 base analyses GDAS, NDAS & RAP, ensemble mean bufr soundings, downscaled to RTMASREF April 2014: SREF incremental update and bug-fix bundle, add bufr sounding sites, refine: LSM, GFS physics in NMMB members, clustering, treatment of frozen precip, and UPP.SREF

UMAC data callpage 30 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF 1. Continental scale2. Regional scale3. Local scale ~9-12km North America WRF-ARW, NEMS-NMMB Parametrized physics SREF ~3km CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR WRF-ARW & NEMS-NMMB Convection-allowing physics HREF ~1km Placeable or storm-following WRF-ARW & NEMS-NMMB Cloud-resolving physics SSEF “Standard-Resolution Ensemble Forecast” 6-? members Hourly update run to 18-24hr “High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast” 6-? members hourly update run to 18-24hr “Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast” 1-2 [per member ?] hourly update run to 18-24hr SREF “Standard-Resolution Ensemble Forecast” HREF “High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast” 26 members 6 hourly runs to 84-96hr ? members 6 hourly extended from 18-24hr to 48-60hr Future 3-tier regional ensemble system (SREF & HREF & SSEF) See also NAM slides ? Is there a need?

UMAC data callpage 31 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF 1. Continental scale2. Regional scale3. Local scale ~9-12km North America WRF-ARW, NEMS-NMMB Parametrized physics SREF ~3km CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR WRF-ARW & NEMS-NMMB Convection-allowing physics HREF ~1km Placeable or storm-following WRF-ARW & NEMS-NMMB Cloud-resolving physics SSEF “Standard-Resolution Ensemble Forecast” 6-? members Hourly update run to 18-24hr “High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast” 6-? members hourly update run to 18-24hr “Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast” 1-2 [per member ?] hourly update run to 18-24hr SREF “Standard-Resolution Ensemble Forecast” HREF “High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast” 26 members 6 hourly runs to 84-96hr ? members 6 hourly extended from 18-24hr to 48-60hr Future 3-tier regional ensemble system (SREF & HREF & SSEF) See also NAM slides ? Is there a need? ? Is there sufficient need?

UMAC data callpage 32 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Verification EMC grid2grib verification (operational): EMC grid2obs verification (operational): EMC precipitation verification package (operational) see NAM slide Developer’s own verification tools: (basic variables) (precipitation) 0day.html

UMAC data callpage 33 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Sources of Requirements [Common within MMB] Forecaster/user direct feedback Weekly MEG briefings Monthly meetings with appropriate NCEP centers Monthly SYNERGY meetings List-serve/forums Testbed experiments & projects [e.g. SPC/NSSL Spring Program, WPC/HWT Flash FLood & Winter Wx experiments and AWC Aviation Testbed] Bi-annual Friends+Partners [aka Family of Services] meetings Annual NCEP Production Suite Review Ideas / hot topics from workshop, conferences and literatures Developer’s own discovery of forecast deficiency or bugs

UMAC data callpage 34 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF Development path To match most egregious shortcoming to available expertise and/or mature techniques from literature / research community. Available means the expertise is purely internal (EMC developers), an internal-external collaboration /partnership (such as DTC and other NCEP centers), or purely external (visitor program). If no "low-hanging fruit" or "shovel-ready" techniques to transition, then the next most egregious shortcoming would be considered for the next upgrade bundle. To establish EMC near real-time parallel for NCEP centers’ feedback prior to formal code-freezing NCO’s parallel.