One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5 Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

World Population Trend Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India World Population Trend Figure 5.4 The steep increase beginning around 1700 coincides with the beginnings of what historical period? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Earth’s Population History Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Earth’s Population History 1 billion reached circa 1830 2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later) 3 billion reached circa 1929 (29 years later) 4 billion reached circa 1974 (15 years later) 5 billion reached circa 1987 (13 years later) 6 billion reached circa 1999 (12 years later) 7 billion reached circa 2011 (12 years later) What is the present world population? http://www.census.gov/ © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

World Population Trend Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India World Population Trend Figure 5.1 When is the world population be expected to reach 8 billion? Is the population increasing proportionately in all parts of the world? What are some of the challenges of a growing population? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India P2 = P1 + B – D + I – O Where: P1 = population in time 1 P2 = population in time 2 B = births D = Deaths I = in-migrants O = out-migrants Population Dynamics In-migration is important for U.S. population growth, but is less critical for estimates in other countries. Why? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Measures of Population Change Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Measures of Population Change Figure 5.2 Crude birth rate Crude death rate Crude rate of natural increase Why are these rates considered “crude”? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Demographic Transition Model Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Demographic Transition Model Figure 5.3 What the main causes of death in the US 200 years ago, and what did society do to address them? Why does the fall in birth rates lag behind the fall in death rates? Are there countries that do not fit this model very well? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries Table 5.1 Are there any countries still in Stage 1 of the demographic transition? What other countries not shown would you expect to find in Stages 2, 3, and 4? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Contrasting Demographic Transitions Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Contrasting Demographic Transitions Figure 5.5 Why did the transition from high to low birth and death rates occur much more rapidly in India? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Population Pyramids: Rapid Growth Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Population Pyramids: Rapid Growth Figure 5.6 What do the left- and right-hand sides of each pyramid depict? What do the center axis numbers refer to in each population pyramid? What other countries are in the rapid growth category? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Population Pyramids: Moderate and Slowing Growth Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Population Pyramids: Moderate and Slowing Growth Figure 5.6 What countries are in the moderate (and slowing) growth category? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Population Pyramids: Slow Growth Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Population Pyramids: Slow Growth Figure 5.6 What countries are in the slow growth category? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Population Pyramids: Population Decline Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Population Pyramids: Population Decline Figure 5.6 What countries are in the population decline category? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Elderly in Italy are 20% of the Total Population Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Elderly in Italy are 20% of the Total Population Figure 5.7 What changes can we expect in Italy's population in the next half century? What are some of the challenges of a shrinking population? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Make Your Own Population Pyramid: Canada Western United States International Create a population pyramid customized to your state / province / country. Does this pyramid reflect your local reality in your experience? Why or why not? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Measures of Fertility: Age-specific birth rate Total fertility rate Replacement fertility rate Zero population growth Compare and contrast “age-specific birth rate” with “crude birth rate.” What is the range of total fertility rates around the world? What is the mathematical definition of “zero population growth?” © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Demographic Momentum: Occurs in an age structure with a small base and a large top Few elderly at the top Many young who will be in reproductive years Compare small number of elderly to large number of youth What shape would a population pyramid be for a country with strong demographic momentum? © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Name That Key Term © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births in a year. Annual number of live births per 1,000 population. Annual number of deaths per 1,000 population. The difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate. All individuals in a certain age range. The number of births to women in a certain age cohort divided by the number of women in that cohort. Infant Mortality Rate Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Crude Death Rate (CDR) Crude Rate of Natural Increase Cohort Age-Specific Birth Rate © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India The average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive years assuming the current fertility rates of women across all ages. The fertility rate at which each female in a population produces on average one female baby who survives to the time when she herself can reproduce. A state in which the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate equals zero. The number of deaths exactly offsets the number of births. A state in which forces of change are in balance. Total Fertility Rate Replacement Fertility Rate Zero Population Growth (ZPG) Equilibrium © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India A model of population change from an equilibrium with high birth and death rates through a high-growth transition period in which death rates decline sooner than birth rates, to a new equilibrium with low birth and death rates. A graph showing the number of males and females in discrete age cohorts (age categories). Continued population growth long after replacement-level fertility rates have been reached. Scattered settlements of a particular national group living abroad. Demographic Transition Model Population Pyramid Demographic Momentum Diaspora © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5 Case Study Activities © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India4 After completing this chapter, you will be able to: Relate the shape of population pyramids to a country’s birth, death, and growth rates. Differentiate population pyramids of countries with rapid, slow, and negative population growth. Understand the hidden momentum built into current population pyramids. Recognize the hypothetical nature of population projections. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Background on India Figures 5.9 A & B © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Total Fertility Rate in India, 1971 to 2011 Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Total Fertility Rate in India, 1971 to 2011 Figures 5.10 © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Infertility clinics like this one in New Delhi reflect India's shift away from coerced birth control to individual choices. While providing the opportunity for birth control to those who want it, some individuals such as those served by this clinic may be more concerned with the opposite problem—not being able to have any children. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Indian emigrants—diaspora around the world Commonwealth country laborers Remittances and development Destinations today: U.S., Great Britain, Canada, Australia © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Implications of population growth in India Supplies of freshwater are stretched to the limit Soil exhaustion and erosion Cultivating low-lying, hurricane-prone islands Overgrazing Protein consumption is 20% below nutritional needs Unable to provide social services and education Makeshift housing in squatter settlements Nonetheless, remarkable economic growth, large middle class, and leadership in the information economy © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Figure 5.12 © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India There has been a substantial South Asian community living in South Africa for over a century. Figure 5.13 © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Figure 5.14 © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Figure 5.15 © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Activity 1: Matching Demographic Descriptions and Population Pyramids Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Activity 1: Matching Demographic Descriptions and Population Pyramids © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Activity 2: Demographic Momentum Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Activity 2: Demographic Momentum © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Explain how it is possible for a population to continue growing for several generations after women begin averaging only two children each. It may be particularly helpful to review your answers for Scenario 2 in Activity 2. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.