Population Geography
1800=almost 1 billion 1900=2 billion 1965=3.3 billion 2000=6 billion 2020=????? TCL_11e_Figure_02_08_L
Population Distribution Population cartogram. Size of country shown in proportion to its total population.
China 1.35 b. India 1.26 b. U.S. 314 m. Indonesia 241 m. Brazil 194 m. Pakistan 180 m. Nigeria 170 m. Russia 143 m. Bangladesh 153 m. Japan 128 m. Mexico 113 m. Philippines 94 m. Vietnam 88 m. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Population Density Arithmetic & Physiological
Tells us more about access to resources Tells us more about access to resources. The greater the physiological density, the greater pressure exerted on land used for farming. Can a country have high arithmetic AND physiological density even if it has a lot of arable land?
Fertility CBR TFR CBR: Monaco=6 46 in Mali, Niger, Zambia World CBR=20 U.S.=13 TFR=2.1 replacement level
Total Fertility Rates (TFR): average number of children per childbearing years per woman Niger: 7.16 South Korea: 1.23 Mali: 6.35 Singapore: 0.78 Italy: 1.40 France: 2.0 (highest in Europe!)
Why Variability in Fertility? Economic factors Health factors Gender equality Social/cultural factors Government policy Moscow, Russia Jaipur, India
Mortality CDR None higher than 23 today. Lowest in Middle East (1-2 in Qatar & Kuwait), highest in Africa (Lesotho, 23, Sierra Leone, 20) Why does death rate NOT tell us about quality of life in a country?
Indicators of quality of life: life expectancy & infant mortality rates Okinawa, Japan: 50 centenarians per 100,000. 4-5x higher than similar countries. Any other such “blue zones”? Can life expectancy decline for a country? Impact of AIDS/HIV? AIDS in Kenya
IMR reflects access to prenatal care as well as nutrition and safe water. At beginning of 1900, US had an IMR over 100, today it is about 6.
Population Structure & Change Population pyramids: age and sex cohorts Age dependency ratios
Population Pyramids: reflect the structure of a population Dependency and Sex Ratios
Japan’s Changing Population Pyramid
Dependency Ratios—under age 15 for every 100 aged 15-64 Dependency Ratios can also include over age 65 for every 100 aged 15-64. TCL_11e_Figure_02_15_L Both the Philippines & Japan have high age-dependency ratios—why?
Natural sex ratio: 105 boys: 100 girls born Extremes: Sex Ratios TCL_11e_Figure_02_16_L Natural sex ratio: 105 boys: 100 girls born Extremes: China 118:100, 160:100 for 2nd births India 113-123:100
How fast is a population growth? RNI=CBR-CDR/1000x100=% increase World’s RNI=1.2%=85 mill/2012
World Population Doubling Times Ethiopia RNI 2.4%=29 years doubling time Spain RNI 0.2%=350 years doubling time Date Estimated Population Number of Years in Which Population Doubles at Current Growth Rate 400,000 bce 500,000 8000 bce 5,000,000 59,000 1 300,000,000 1354 1750 795,000,000 1250 1800 985,000,000 163 1850 1,266,000,000 136 1900 1,656,000,000 129 1950 2,516,000,000 85 2000 6,080,000,000 40
England’s Demographic Transition: What causes death rates to drop in 1750?
Demographic Transition Model: Stage 1: Low Growth Stage 2: High Growth Stage 3: Slowing Growth Stage 4: Low Growth
Doesn’t account for migration. Limits to the model: Doesn’t account for migration. Can’t be used to make predictions. Based on Europe—can we expect all countries to ‘behave’ as European countries did? Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Theories on Population Thomas Malthus Optimists: Cornucopian Theory Social Critics: Food Insecurity
Was Malthus Correct? Neo-Malthusians—Malthus essentially correct: carrying capacity
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Case Studies China’s One Child Policy Kerala, India’s Social Justice Romania’s Pro-Natalist Policy
China’s Later, Longer, Fewer Campaign Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
I CAN’T GET A DATE!! “As a result, approximately 30 million more men than women will reach Adulthood and enter China’s mating market by 2020.” CNN
Fareed Zakaria on China’s “Looming Demographic Catastrophe” http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/14/opinion/china-challenges-one-child-brooks
The Kerala Model Health Indicators Kerala India Crude Birth Rate 14 (US is 16) 25 Infant Mortality 12 53 Total Fertility 1.7 2.9 Maternal Mortality 110 301 Life Expectancy (women) 76.3 64.2 Literacy Rate (female) 1951 36.43% Literacy Rate (female) 2011 92.12%