Afghanistan The demographic background David Redfern

Basic demographic data Total population: 30.6 million (2013) Predictions: 39.6 million by 2025, 56.5 million by 2050 Birth rate: 37 per 1,000 Death rate: 9 per 1,000 Growth rate: 2.8% % population under 15 years: 49% % population over 65: 2% Median age: 18.1 years

Afghanistan: stage 2 of the DTM Wide base, i.e. the birth rate is high. The sides in the lower part do not narrow in as quickly as those higher up, showing lower death rate among the young. This indicates lower infant and child mortality rates. The death rate is decreasing — the population is growing.

Population by age group in Afghanistan and four south Asian countries

More demographic data Net migration rate: –5% (a net loss of people from migration) Infant mortality rate: 71 per 1,000 live birthds (high) Maternal mortality rate: 4.60 per 1,000 live births (high) Fertility rate: 5.4 per woman (high) Life expectancy: 60 years for the total population (males: 59 years, females: 61 years) Urban population: 24%

Some social indicators Population density: 47 per km2 GNI PPP per capita (2012): $1,400 Share of national income: poorest 5th have 9%, wealthiest 5th have 37% Using modern sanitation: urban 46%, rural 23% Literacy rates (over 15s who can read/write): total 28.1% (male 43.1% female 12.6%) School life expectancy (no. of years in full-time education): total pop 9 years (male 11 years, female 7years) Children (5–14 years) in the labour force: 25% Provision of doctors: 0.19 per 1,000 people (UK: 2.77) Population with AIDS (15–49 years): <0.1% (very low)

Women in Afghanistan Women aged 15–49 (2013): 6.8 million Lifetime births per woman: 5.4 Women aged 20–24 who gave birth by the age 18: 26% Mother’s median age of giving birth: 21 years W omen aged 15–49 using contraception: 21%

Female population by age/marital status (2009)

Women, marriage and child-bearing Marital status is a key social element in Afghan society. The graph on the previous slide shows that after 40 years of age very few women remain unmarried. In the age group 25–39 years only 4% of women remain unmarried. Marriage is the key determinant of women’s fertility and child bearing. Early child-bearing is a risk to women’s health. It contributes significantly to the existence of large families. Girls married before puberty are likely to have more children and this is a major risk factor to maternal health.

Male population by age/marital status (2009)

Widowhood The graph on the previous slide shows that only 14% of males married early — between ages 15 and 24. The difference between men and women is clearly visible from the two graphs of their marital status. Women tend to marry earlier than men and a higher percentage of women become widowed earlier. The incidence of widowhood increases as age increases, particularly for women. The figures show that around 3% and 17% of men aged 45–64 and 65+ years respectively were widowers. The corresponding data for women were 19% and 61%. The major causes of the large number of widowed females are: (a) the high male mortality in the past due to conflict in the country, (b) the large age differences between spouses.

Education of girls Under the Taliban regime girls in Afghanistan were barred from attending school. They started to go to school in larger numbers from 2002. Some families in highly conservative parts of Afghanistan, such as the southern and eastern regions, still deny girls the right to schooling. The destruction of schools has been increasing over the years. In 2009 alone, a total of 112 Afghan schools were attacked, burned or destroyed, compared to a cumulative total of 192 schools in 2005–07. Out of these 112 schools, 21 were primary schools, 45 were middle schools, and 43 were high schools.

Afghanistan into the future: 2025 In 2025, stage 3 of the DTM will be reached. Birth rate will be slow to reduce due to deeply ingrained traditions.

Afghanistan into the future: 2050 It is predicted that it will take until 2050 to reach stage 4 of the DTM

Sources CIA The World Factbook Data sheet. (Population Reference Bureau) ‘Women and men in Afghanistan 2011’, Central Statistics Organisation (CSO) (Afghanistan government) 2012 Ministry of Women’s Affairs (Afghanistan government) 2012 Students may also wish to read the novels of Khaled Hosseini as they provide excellent background. This resource is part of Geography Review, a magazine written for A-level students by subject experts. To subscribe to the full magazine go to www.hoddereducation.co.uk/geographyreview