Chapter 5 World Population Trends Calculations Developed vs. Developing Countries Age Structure Diagrams Demographic Transition Chapter 6 Fertility Rates World Bank 1994 UN Conference in Cairo- Program of Action

(In 2000) 11.5 billion & 2065(?) (In 2008) 10 billion & 2200 OLD NEW

Disparities Developed countries –15% of the world’s population –Control 80% of the world’s wealth Low-income developing countries –37% of the world’s population –Control 3.0% of the world’s gross national income Difference in per capita income: 63 to 1!

Different Populations, Different Problems IPAT Formula: calculates human pressure on the environment (I = P x A x T) –I = environmental impact –P = population –A = affluence and consumptive patterns –T = level of technology in the society Or should it be I = PxAxT/S (S = Stewardly Concern/Practice)

Different Populations, Different Problems Environmental impact of developing countries due to “P.” Environmental impact of developed countries due to “A” and “T.” –Both have some measure of “I” for different reasons. –Average American places at least 20 times the demand on Earth’s resources compared to a person in Bangladesh.

(b) crude birth rate= number birth per 1000 individuals (d) crude death rate= number death per 1000 individuals (r) growth rate = natural increase in population expressed as percent per years (If this number is negative, the population is shrinking.) equation: r = b – d But other factors affect population growth in a certain area…

Rates cont’ increase populationdecrease population births  deaths immigration   emigration (exit) r = (birth - death)+ (immigration-emigration) immigration = migration of individuals into a population from another area or country emigration = migration of individuals from a population bound for another country

r = (b - d)+ (i - e) B D I E r=( 10/1000) – (5/1000) + (1/1000) – (10/1000) r=( ) + (0.001 – 0.01) r = – = or –0.4% per year example: population of 10,000 has 100 births (10 per 1000) 50 deaths (5 per 1000) 10 immigration (1 per 1000) 100 emigration (10 per 1000) You try.

Growing Cities

Doubling time = 70 / % growth rate Use this equation to answer this question: How long will it take for a population to reach a certain size?

If the growth rate is 1% and the population size is 10,000, how many years will it take to get to a population of 40,000? Population doubling: In 140 years, the population will be 40,000 people. (70 years)(2) =140 years 2 D.T.  40,000 1 D.T.  20,000 In 70 years the population will be 20,000 70/rate =70/1% =70 years to double

In the year 2000 there are 100,000 people living in Paradise. Every year, 10 people emigrate from paradise and 10,000 people immigrate to paradise. 100 people are born each year and 100 people die each year. a) Calculate the doubling time for the population of Paradise. b) How many years will it take for Paradise to have 400,000 people? c) If you were the President of Paradise what would be your policy for population control. (major problem in Paradise) And Pg. 141 Thinking Environmentally #3

The transition from a primitive or developing society to a “modern” or developed society Phase 1 = deaths and births are high (epidemiological) Phase 2 = death rate begins to decrease (fertility) Phase 3 = birth rate drops and death rate flattens out Phase 4 = modern stability There is little population growth in phase 1 but in phase 4 people live longer and have fewer children and the population grows.

Bottom Line= as countries develop, first their death rate drops and then their birth rate drops Reasons for the phases: Phase II:  medical care  nutrition (births still high)  technology Phase III:  birth control  education (of women)  lower mortality rate of infants  less child labor

Developed Countries CCanada, U.S., Australia, Denmark Developing Countries BBrazil, China, Kenya 11/5 of the world’s population lives in absolute poverty (which means they are: illiterate, lack clean H 2 O and don’t have enough food to survive) 880% of world’s population lives in developing countries and this number is growing...

Total fertility = avg. # of children born per woman Fertility of 2.0 = replacement level (theoretical) –About 2.1 in reality –Under 2.0 = shrinking population –Over 2.0 = growing pop.

Population Data for Selected Countries (Table 5-2) CountryTotal Fertility Rate Doubling Times (Years) World2.758 Developing Countries Developed Countries

Special agency of the United Nations Receives $$ from developed co. and loans $$ to developing co. –Sometimes this backfires by increasing debt Oversees all types of issues, not just environmental issues –Ex. electricity, roads, new modern technology

Reached consensus on: Empowerment of women Improving reproductive health Increasing basic education Enhancing family income No changes to the World Bank