Demographics. Final Exam ECON2000 L1 21-Dec-12 8:30-11:30 LTB Cumulative Bring: Writing materials, calculator, 1 A4 size piece of paper with handwritten.

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Presentation transcript:

Demographics

Final Exam ECON2000 L1 21-Dec-12 8:30-11:30 LTB Cumulative Bring: Writing materials, calculator, 1 A4 size piece of paper with handwritten notes on both sides Office Hours WR Dec

Global Imbalances Link

Savings &Current Account Gross National Savings: GNI – Consumption (Publ. + Private) GDP = Consumption + Gross Capital Formation + Net Exports (Exports – Imports) GNI = GDP + NFI GNS – GCF = NX + NFI = Current Account

Population Growth Abstracting from migration, population growth rates equal crude birth rates less crude death rates.

The Classic Demographic Transition Model Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. Link

Stages of Demographic Transition 1.Low Population Growth. High Birth Rates, High Death Rates 2.Population Growth Explosion. Medical Advances slow mortality rates, high population growth. 3.Slowing Population Growth. Educational Advances slow birth rates. 4.Low Population Growth. Low Birth Rates, Low Death Rates

World Development Indicators

Japan World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision Volume II – Demographic Profiles LinkLink

Aging Population Structure LinkLink Population by age, sex and urban/rural residence

Japanese Population

Fertility Rates Longer-term ratio of average number of children Replacement Ratio: 2.1 Developed Economy, 2.3 Developing Economy

Fertility Rates

Imbalances

Life-cycle hypothesis – Households prefer smooth spending growth Consumption Spending Earnings $ Age Prime Saving Years

Population Structure and Employment

Implications of Age Structure for Economic Growth Temporary high savings and high investment. Period when investment drops more quickly than savings: savings glut, global imbalances. Low interest rates. Less innovation

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