THE ROLE OF SCIENCE IN INFORMING ENERGY LEGISLATION Novem Auyeung 2010 Econ Camp Oct. 13, 2010

What is your science background? A. I took science classes in high school. B. I took science classes after high school. C. I took science classes after college. D. I get my science news from the general news media (e.g., newspapers, radio, TV news). E. I get my science news from scientific magazines, science/technical mailing lists, scientific organizations, or radio shows and websites devoted to science news (e.g., Science/Nature, AAAS, Science Friday, Scientific American)

Science & Energy  Science provides us with valuable information on:  How we can produce energy

Science & Energy  Science provides us with valuable information on:  How we can produce energy  Location and abundance of energy

Science & Energy  Science provides us with valuable information on:  How we can produce energy  Location and abundance of energy  Environmental and public health consequences (externalities) of producing energy from different sources

Consequences of energy use  Fossil fuels  Air pollution  Water pollution  Climate change  Wind energy  Bird deaths  Solar energy  Health problems during manufacturing  Nuclear energy  Nuclear waste disposal  Hydroelectric power  Harms fish populations  Reduced water quality

Consequences of energy use  Mercury  Coal contains trace amounts of mercury that are released when coal is combusted ©USGS

Consequences of energy use  Mercury  Coal contains trace amounts of mercury that is released when coal is combusted  Over 90% of Indiana’s electricity comes from coal

Consequences of energy use

Consequences of energy use

Consequences of energy use  Mercury  Coal contains trace amounts of mercury that are released when coal is combusted  Over 90% of Indiana’s electricity comes from coal  Precipitation in Indiana contains concentrations of mercury that harm wildlife and sometimes people

Consequences of energy use  Climate change quiz (true or false): 1) The greenhouse effect is harmful. 2) Climate change is caused by natural processes. 3) Scientists are still debating the causes of climate change.

The greenhouse effect keeps our planet warm enough to support life.

Humans are a part of nature.  Scientists account for geological, ecological, and human drivers of climate change in their analyses. Based on multiple, independent lines of evidence, they find that the human activities dominate. (Karl et al. 2006)(Forster et al. 2007)

The majority of scientific experts and scientific organizations agree on the causes of climate change. (Anderegg, WRL et al ) List of scientific organizations that are convinced of the role of human activity (e.g., fossil fuel combustion and deforestation) in climate change: 32 national science academies American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) American Chemical Society (ACS) American Geophysical Union (AGU) European Science Foundation Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies National Center for Atmospheric Research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Royal Meteorological Society

Science can tell us consequences of different amounts of pollution  Science can provide us with probabilities and information for risk management. Economists can provide us with cost estimates for quantifying risk. Policies are made based what level of risk is acceptable.

Science & Energy  Science provides us with valuable information on:  How we can produce energy  Location and abundance of energy  Environmental and public health consequences (externalities) of producing energy from different sources  How we can minimize the negative consequences of energy production

Making energy clean and green  Energy conservation  Green building technology and industry  Weatherizing homes  Compact fluorescent light bulbs  Improving public transportation  Cleaner energy  Emerging renewable energy industry, especially in China and Europe  Energy from waste Anaerobic digester for West Lafayette’s own wastewater treatment plant

Making energy clean and green (Energy Information Agency, DOE 2007) Fossil fuels: US$5.5 billion Renewables: US$4.9 billion

Questions?  Feel free to contact me:

Bibliography  Anderegg, WLS, JW Prall, J Harold, SH Schneider Expert credibility in climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science:  Energy Information Agency, DOE Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy Markets Executive Summary:  Forster, P., V. Ramaswamy, P. Artaxo, T. Berntsen, R. Betts, D.W. Fahey, J. Haywood, J. Lean, D.C. Lowe, G. Myhre, J. Nganga, R. Prinn, G. Raga, M. Schulz and R. Van Dorland, 2007: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.  Karl, TR, SJ Hassol, CD Miller, and WL Murray (eds). Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommitte on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.

Extra notes

Making energy clean and green (Energy Information Agency, DOE 2007)

It’s real

©NASA

Making energy clean and green $18.2 billion (in 2009) According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (Environmental Law Institute 2009)

Location & Abundance of Energy Fossil fuel reserves Formation of fossil fuels from organic matter (e.g. swamp forests & plankton) Extraction & consumption of fossil fuels

Location & Abundance of Energy Fossil fuel reserves Extraction & consumption of fossil fuels ~1.3 trillion barrels of oil - 35 billion barrels/year million barrels/year* *Assumes recovery rate of oil from organic matter is 0.009% (Dukes 2003), total marine production per year is 48.5 PgC (Field et al 1998) and oil very optimistically takes only 1000 years to form. Formation of fossil fuels from organic matter (e.g. swamp forests & plankton)

Pop Quiz: What is science? True or False: 1. Science is about testing and proving hypotheses. 2. Scientific knowledge can only be generated through experimentation. 3. A scientific hypothesis is an “educated guess”.

Pop Quiz: What is science? True or False: 1. Science is about testing and proving hypotheses.  False – Hypotheses are only disproven. 2. Scientific knowledge can only be generated through experimentation.  False – Scientific knowledge can be generated through model systems, computer models, observational data. 3. A scientific hypothesis is an “educated guess”.  False – Hypotheses are testable answers to scientific questions. If a “guess” is not testable, then it is not a hypothesis.