What are the environmental implications of increased biofuel use in the U.S., and how can we model them? Bruce A. McCarl Regents Professor of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University Part of a Panel Presented at Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum # 4: Modeling Ag-Forest Offsets and Biofuels in U.S. and Canadian Regional and National Mitigation March 6-8, 2007 – Shepherdstown, West Virginia, NCTC

Collaborators Darius Adams, Oregon StateRalph Alig, USDA Forest Service Gerald Cornforth, TAMUGreg Latta, Oregon State Brian Murray, RTIDhazn Gillig, TAMU Chi-Chung Chen, TAMU, NTU Mahmood El-Halwagi, TAMUUwe Schneider, University of Hamburg Ben DeAngelo, EPAKen Andrasko, EPA Steve Rose, EPAFrancisco Delachesnaye, EPA Ron Sands, PNNL, MarylandHeng-Chi Lee, Taiwan Thien Muang, TAMUKenneth Szulczyk, TAMU Michael Shelby, EPASharyn Lie, EPA Sources of Support USDA DOE USEPA CSiTE

Aspects of the question Biofuels and GHGs Biofuels and energy Biofuels and the air Biofuels and the water Biofuels and the land Biofuels and welfare

Again an Aside From a GHG perspective Biofuels ≠ Ethanol Particularly corn or sugar ethanol GHG offset = a1 * crop ethanol + a2 * cell ethanol + a3 * biodiesel + a4 * bio fueled electricity

Offset Rates - Lifecycle Analysis Ethanol offsets are in comparison to gasoline Power plants offsets are in comparison to coal. Opportunities have different potentials Net Carbon Emission Reduction (%) Electricity offsets higher when cofired due to Efficiency and less hauling Table 4. Percentage Reduction in Fossil Fuel Emissions by Alternative Biomass Energy Production.

Biofuels and energy Table 4. Percentage Reduction in Fossil Fuel Emissions by Alternative Biomass Energy Production. Replaces Coal, and Petroleum Not a perfect substitute Ethanol 1.6 gallons to 1 on btu basis Chemical properties not the same Nott all are created equal Requires energy to make energy Better as we get into tar sands and oil shales Hossein has more

Biofuels and the Air Table 4. Percentage Reduction in Fossil Fuel Emissions by Alternative Biomass Energy Production. Biofuels do not contain very much Mercury (1/100 of coal) Sulfur Nitrogen (1/10 of coal) But finings are a wash on NOX Could provide ash to cement Source Qin, X., T. Mohan, M.M. El-Halwagi, G.C. Cornforth, and B.A. McCarl, "Switchgrass as an Alternate Feedstock for Power Generation: An Environmental, Energy, and Economic Life-Cycle Analysis," Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, forthcoming, If allows more coal fired power because provides room under cap could increase Sulfur – acid rain Mercury – fish Ozone – wash? Carbon monoxide (CO) – wash? Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) – wash? Particulate matter (PM), – wash? Ground-level ozone (O3) – wash? Human health? Source Elbakidze, L., and B.A. McCarl, "Sequestration Offsets versus Direct Emission Reductions: Consideration of Environmental Co-effects," Ecological Economics, Volume 60, , 2007.

Biofuels and the Water Table 4. Percentage Reduction in Fossil Fuel Emissions by Alternative Biomass Energy Production.

Source Pattanayak, S.K., A.J. Sommer, B.C. Murray, T. Bondelid, B.A. McCarl, D. Gillig, and B. de Angelo, "Water Quality Co-Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Incentives in U. S. Agriculture," Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum, Shepherdstown, WV, October, Pattanayak, S.K., B.A. McCarl, A.J. Sommer, B.C. Murray, T. Bondelid, D. Gillig, and B. de Angelo, "Water Quality Co-effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in US Agriculture," Climatic Change, 71, , Biofuels and the Water

Biofuels and land Table 4. Percentage Reduction in Fossil Fuel Emissions by Alternative Biomass Energy Production. Pressures for more land Deforestation CRP Potholes Fencerow to fencerow Will farm program be effective -- Conservation compliance

Biofuels and the Markets Gain here but lose in energy sector Probably should ignore for now

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