Demographic Transition Model – Why & How

Main Questions  Why did the CDR begin to drop in the Western world? (Beginning of Stage 2)  Why did birth rates not fall rapidly at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution?  Why did birth rates begin to fall? (beginning of stage 3)  Why did death rates continue to fall through stage 3?

Main Questions (cont’d)  What are the general reasons for the Transition in the West?  Why was the West not negatively impacted by this rapid population expansion?  What has caused declining CDR in the developing world?  Will this model predict the future for the developing world’s population transition?

1st Agricultural Revolution ~8000 BC: First Domestication of Plants and Animals  some societies transition from hunting and gathering to agricultural societies  larger and more stable sources of food  urbanization  religious practices adapt  other elements of “civilization” – math; government; science

Why did the CDR begin to drop in the Western world? (Beginning of Stage 2)

2 nd Agricultural Revolution 18 th C: Post- Columbian agriculture exchange  new higher calorie foods introduced to Europe: potatoes, corn  improved animal husbandry  crop rotation  storage technology  distribution systems

2 nd Agricultural Revolution 18 th C (cont’d)  increased cotton production  inexpensive clothing  better hygiene

early Industrial Revolution ~1750  steam engine  mass production (interchangeable parts)  energy technology: water power  transportation improvements: ships, canals

later Industrial Revolution ~1850  railroads  new agricultural technology: plows, thrashers  increased wealth privately and publicly

Better Public Health  improved sanitation & personal hygiene*  sewer systems to protect water & food supply*  *first implemented for aesthetic reasons

Why did birth rates not fall rapidly at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution?

Cost / Benefit ratio of children  still used child labor  still primarily an agrarian society  tradition

“Cult of Family”  Victorian age of large families  Religious impediments to birth control

Why did birth rates begin to fall? (beginning of stage 3)

Development of Middle Class values  move to the city  aspire to management positions  mandatory schooling (removed kids from labor market)  families could invest in education for kids  cost / benefit ratio begins to shift

Public Policy  Increased social programs to help poor and elderly  Decreased need for children to care for family members

Status of Women  increasing independence  new economic opportunities  sense of control over reproductive decisions

Why did death rates continue to fall through stage 3?

Medical Revolution (20 th C)  improved sanitation methods  anesthetics  vaccinations  technology

Epidemiological Shift  stage 2 deaths – infectious diseases; crop failures  stage 3 deaths – chronic diseases; old age diseases

What are the general reasons for the Transition in the West?  simple answer: urbanization and industrialization  deeper answer:  change in cost / benefit of children  Change in the status of women

DT effects on population in the West: The West and the World experienced a significant population increase as the West entered and worked its way through the transition.

Why was the West not negatively impacted by this rapid population expansion?

Safety Valve  Europeans emigrated to other parts of the world, primarily the US  The US had enormous resources and space to absorb the increasing population

Colonization  The US and Europe had a rapidly expanding economy to feed the population  Exploited the natural resources and labor supply of colonial holdings

Will this model predict the future for the developing world’s population transition?

Yes  the model basically implies that declining CDR will be followed by declining CBR

No; The Model Won’t Work  Base CBR is higher to begin with  CDR dropping much faster  Europe had a safety valve – migration; dev’ing world too poor to migrate  Colonial exploitation not an option for the dev’ing world

No The Model Won’t Work (cont’d)  Model is affected by Western values which are not applicable in cultures with different values and world view  European governments were more powerful than dev’ing nations’ government  Global pollution control measures will not allow unfettered economic growth like Europe was allowed

I. Migration

A. Why People Migrate  PUSH – induces people to move OUT of their current location.  PULL – induces people to move INTO a new location. 1. Push – Pull Factors

2. Kinds of Push-Pull Factors  Economic – mainly jobs.  Cultural – forced migrations. (refugees) -Slavery, political oppression, etc.  Environmental – comfort -mountains, coasts, climate, water

3. Intervening Obstacles  Environmental or cultural feature that hinders migration.  Mountains  “Great Wall”  list more…

a. Obstacles to Migration  Immigration policies of host countries  U.S. quota laws  Temporary migration for work  Time-contract workers  Economic migrants or refugees?  Cultural problems living in other countries  U.S. attitudes to immigrants  Attitudes to guest workers

Refugees: Sources and destinations Fig. 3-1: Major source and destination areas of both international and internal refugees.

B. Distance of Migration 1. Internal -most common -shorter distance -less stress Midwest to Coast or City to Suburb 1. International -voluntary or forced -often long distances CATEGORIES

Intraregional Migration in the U.S. Fig. 3-14: Average annual migration among urban, suburban, and rural areas in the U.S. during the 1990s. The largest flow was from central cities to suburbs.

C. Characteristics of Migrants  Most long-distance migrants are male.  Most long-distance migrants are adults rather than families with children.

Migration within a Country  Migration between regions of a country  Migration between regions within the U.S.  Migration between regions in other countries  Migration within one region  Rural-urban migration  Urban-suburban migration  Migration from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan regions

Interregional Migration in the U.S. Fig. 3-13: Average annual migrations between regions in the U.S. in 1995 and in 2000.

Center of Population in the U.S. Fig. 3-12: The center of U.S. population has consistently moved westward, with the population migration west. It has also begun to move southward with migration to the southern sunbelt.

Net Migration (per population) Fig. 3-3: Net migration per 1,000 population. The U.S. has the largest number of immigrants, but other developed countries also have relatively large numbers.

Migration Patterns  Global migration patterns  U.S. migration patterns  Colonial immigration  19th century immigration  Recent immigration  Impact of immigration on the U.S.  Legacy of European migration  Undocumented immigration  Destination of immigrants within the U.S.

Global Migration Patterns Fig. 3-2: The major flows of migration are from less developed to more developed countries.

Migration to U.S., by region of origin Fig. 3-4: Most migrants to the U.S. were from Europe until the 1960s. Since then, Latin America and Asia have become the main sources of immigrants.

Migration from Asia to the U.S. Fig. 3-5: Migration in The largest numbers of migrants from Asia come from India, China, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

Migration from Latin America to the U.S. Fig. 3-6: Mexico has been the largest source of migrants to the U.S., but migrants have also come from numerous other Latin American nations.

GENOCIDE Again and again. Push Factor.

The Holocaust  12 million victims.  The word “Genocide” is created to legally define the crimes against humanity. ( ’45 )  Genocide Convention Created (’48)

Post-Holocaust Genocide  Cambodia (Carter) *2 million  Iraq (Reagan/Bush) *??  Rwanda (Clinton) *1 million  Sudan? (W. Bush) *100,000

Why is Genocide Allowed to Happen?  Genocide does not threaten U.S. security.  Suppressing genocide could threaten American lives.  Lack of condemnation or sanctions.  Difficult to predict or report.  U.S. will not allow citizens to be tried in a genocide court.

Rwanda BACKGROUND  Europeans created a class system in the region in  Class based mostly on ethnicity in relation to European ideals.  Ethnic identity cards issued in  Belgium withdraws from Rwanda/Burundi. (1962)

Rwanda HUTU *86% of Pop *agriculturalists *poorer/less educated *Shorter, squater, wider features. *oppressed group TUTSI *13% of Pop *cattle herders *”wealthy”, educated *”European” features *oppressed group

Darfur  TODAY!!!