CLARREO SDT Meeting Alternative Missions & The Path Forward David Young April 10-12,

Topics Alternative mission scenarios -Completed studies -ISS -Other options o Venture Class o Cost share o Why International partners? CLARREO Applied Science Growing the CLARREO constituency -Intercalibration -Modeling -Near-term benefits -Conferences? Next Steps 2

Evaluation of Hosting on Existing Platforms Iridium NEXT -Has the advantage of numerous launch opportunities, but offers only small payload mass and volume allocations -Conclusion: Iridium NEXT is not a viable option for either of the CLARREO instruments (or reduced IR options) due to mass, volume, thermal constraints Small Satellites: FASTSAT (MSFC) -Initial studies of the MSFC FASTSAT satellite bus indicate that the CLARREO infrared and reflected solar instruments are too large for this platform -Future studies will investigate other existing small satellite opportunities -Conclusion: FASTSAT is not a viable option for either of the CLARREO instruments (or reduced IR options) due to mass and volume constraints ESPA (DoD) -Offers a well known interface for small spacecraft but poses some programmatic issues International Space Station -Offers large payload mass and volume allocations -Logistics, access to space, and orbits have been considered -Conclusion: ISS meets CLARREO accuracy goals 50S to 50N for spectral fingerprinting of climate change -Conclusion: ISS meets the CLARREO "NIST in orbit" requirements 3

Why ISS? Access to space has become the main driver of cost issues in Earth Science space missions -With the extension of the ISS to at least 2020, there is a high interest in ISS utilization. For now, access to the ISS is paid for by HEOMD Total cost greatly reduced – no LV or spacecraft Provides a chance to start the CLARREO record and demonstrate the measurements in space Langley has extensive experience on ISS accommodation from SAGE III, MISSE-X, and FIREX The ISS is an excellent tool for potential international partnering -Could provide cost sharing -Could supply broader community support (WMO paper) 4

ISS CLARREO Orbit Sampling Studies Used 10 years of CERES/geo merged data for hourly 1 degree gridded data as truth data Subsampled with typical ISS orbits (350 – 400km, 51.5 degree inclination) for CLARREO nadir only viewing ISS orbit covers 50S to 50N: no polar coverage Within 50S to 50N, ISS samples the full diurnal cycle 12 times/yr. Orbit sampling error results: -For infrared sampling: no accuracy loss versus CLARREO 90 degree nominal orbit. Time to detect trends increased by less than 5%. -For reflected solar sampling: time to detect climate trends at a given confidence level is increased from 10% (90 degree orbit) to 20% (ISS orbit) above that of a perfect observing system: i.e. If a perfect observing system detects a trend in 20 years, it takes 22 yrs (90 deg orbit) or 24 yrs (ISS orbit) -Direct determination of the diurnal cycle using CLARREO ISS data may improve accuracy to match the 90 deg orbit. Issue is that the ISS does not have an integer number of diurnal cycle samples in days (1 year). Conclusion: ISS meets CLARREO accuracy goals 50S to 50N for spectral fingerprinting of climate change. 5

ISS Sampling for Reference Intercalibration ISS orbit was used to simulate orbit crossing opportunities for all major sunsynchronous orbits (NPP, JPSS, METOP), and all geostationary satellites. ISS provides the same intercalibration orbit sampling opportunities as the CLARREO nominal 90 degree orbit presented at MCR for both reflected solar and infrared. It also provides sufficient scene type variations to verify calibration accuracy in a wide range of climate conditions from the tropics to desert to mid latitude winter snow/ice low temperature and low water vapor conditions. Pointing to the sun, moon, and alignment with scanning instruments on LEO and GEO platforms is sufficient for all CLARREO requirements. Conclusion: ISS meets the CLARREO "NIST in orbit" requirements. 6

ISS Accommodation Studies CLARREO alternative mission studies and the SAGE III ISS accommodation work at Langley, suggest that the International Space Station provides a viable alternative for achieving a significant portion of the CLARREO science at much lower cost -Assumes that CLARREO does not have to cover the cost of launch to the space station: similar to EV-2 costing rules for ISS attached payloads, includes ISS accommodation costs and full science/operations costs. The ISS can accommodate the FOV requirements for RS and IR  GNSS-RO accommodation on ISS is problematic Results of these studies were shared with the community and subsequently incorporated into several Venture Class and ESA ISS proposals. 7

What is the ISS Mission Science Value? Used the previous Science Value Matrix approach to evaluate -Included the new orbital sampling results Because the polar regions cannot be seen by ISS, there is a loss to spectral fingerprinting science, but not to intercalibration science. 50S to 50N spectral fingerprinting will enable tropical and mid-latitude climate change observations but not polar: so use 2/3 science weight for fingerprint science value intercalibration science is unaffected: 100% science. CLARREO baseline 90 degree orbit is 100% science value ISS orbit is 100% intercal, but 66% fingerprinting for average of 83%. Reliability on orbit of 3-year instrument designs will be longer because of very high reliability of ISS versus a 3-yr spacecraft design. This increases climate record length. 70% chance of 6-year lifetime on ISS for each instrument, versus 3 years for small spacecraft. Bottom line: CLARREO on ISS can be accomplished at 30% of cost - ISS with IR/RS/RO provides 65% of baseline science value - ISS with IR/RS provides 57% of baseline science value 8

Mission’s Applications Value 9 Potential applications of CLARREO mission data -Primary application area: Climate o Global climate prediction improvement for decision makers o Regional modeling improvement through reference intercalibration of existing data sets -Cross-cutting applications o CLARREO will provide climate-level calibration for a wide range of sensors (VIIRS, CrIS, LANDSAT, GEO imagers, CERES) o This will enable a wide range of long-term data set applications such as: Energy market forecasting (including renewables like solar) Improved bias corrections for weather assimilation/prediction models Ongoing activities -Engagement of key stakeholders on applied uses of CLARREO intercalibration data (EUMETSAT, NOAA, GSICS) -Engagement of Global Climate Modeling community to ensure optimal data products for climate projection decision tools -Assessment of the Value of Information (VOI) and economic benefit of increased accuracy of the Climate Observing System Other ideas?

Planning / Next Steps Partnering activities Strengthening and expanding the CLARREO constituency Future conference strategy -Do we want to submit an AGU session? (due April 20) -NIST Lunar Workshop (May 14-15) -CALCON -AMS R-to-O session in January 2012 Proposals to Map and MEASURES Input to next Decadal Survey 10

Current Partnering Activities Partnerships & Collaboration -NIST continues to be a very active and formal partner o Active participation in Calibration Demonstration Systems at GSFC (reflected solar) and LaRC (infrared) o NIST continues to put their own financial resources into this activity to maintain progress (extending capabilities in near infrared and far infrared wavelengths) -UK international agreement o Imperial College, NPL, and Hadley Centre are active and formal partners o UK formal agreement being updated now o Working with Nigel Fox at NPL on a UK Space agency funded study of reflected solar science requirements for a potential TRUTHS demonstration mission o UK Space Agency representatives are coordinating with ESA for development of TRUTHS -Italy informal agreement o Italy, with international partners including NASA LaRC, has submitted a proposal to ESA for deploying a far-IR/IR spectrometer to fly on the ISS -WMO / GSICS collaboration 11

Strengthening and Expanding the CLARREO Constituency Reference Intercalibration -Strong ties with GSICS -Can we expand our reach to data users, including applied science? Modeling -See OSSE discussion Near-term benefits -Need to sharpen our message Future conference strategy -What is the best strategy (with reduced travel budgets) 12

OSSE Actions Talk with UK Met Office Make connections with the uncertainty quantification community Put together a plan for Xu / Ping / Huang / Feldman to develop and incorporate models -Brief HQ on community benefits MEASURES or MAP proposal? Coordinate with NOAA activities -Get observations + models discussion on NASA / NOAA quarterly agenda 13