Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA) Work to Support NIDIS July 31 st – August 1 st, 2012 Wilmington, NC

Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments NOAA’s RISA program supports research that addresses climate sensitive issues in the following areas: Water Fisheries Wildlife Agriculture Public Health Coastal Management There are 11 regional programs, including Alaska and the Pacific.

Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA) CISA works with a variety of stakeholders to incorporate climate information into water and coastal management, public health, and related decision-making processes. Southeast Regional Climate Center NC Sea Grant SC Sea Grant Consortium State Climate Offices (NC & SC) Federal, state, local agencies Private sector Non governmental organizations Core focus areas: Drought Climate and watershed modeling Coastal climate Health Adaptation

CISA Project Partners East Carolina University Water resources scenarios National Integrated Drought Information System Planning meetings on drought and coastal ecosystems NOAA, Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research Monitoring Carolina estuaries for Vibrio North Carolina State Climate Office Drought research project South Carolina State Climate Office Workshops for SC DNR staff working on wildlife action plans USGS, SC Water Science Center Saltwater intrusion scenarios and tool

Dynamic Drought Index Tool (DDIT) Map Navigation Tools GIS Tools Metadata

Assessing Drought Indicators and Triggers Frequency of Drought Class Severity Measured by Different Indices Adapted from Mizzell (2009)

Communicating the Certainty of Drought Data 1 = Extreme drought with a large residual (Low certainty) 2 = Extreme drought with a minimal residual (High certainty) 3 = Extreme drought with a medium residual (Medium certainty) Project examined ways to communicate drought data, as well as its corresponding degree of certainty, and tested the effectiveness of different symbols. Results to be used in future work to develop decision support tools and maps. Adapted from Fowler (2010)

Pee Dee River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Salinity Intrusion Model (PRISM) Assessing the Impact of Saltwater Intrusion in the Carolinas Under Future Climatic and Sea-Level Conditions Adapted from Conrads (2011)

Understanding Needs for a Drought Early Warning System: Drought Impacts and Stresses on Coastal Ecosystems March 2010 workshop 29 participants: researchers, resource managers, education-outreach specialists – federal, state, local Concerns Lack of data, knowledge, understanding: hydrological processes, long-term biological or ecological data, appropriate management tools or actions Management: reactive, lack of integration, lack of awareness (public and local decision makers) Lack of funding to support monitoring, research

Needs and Preferences: Management Empirical data that demonstrates drought- related impacts Online decision-support tools to improve access to information Coordination or partnerships across organizations Public education and outreach – accessible and locally relevant information

Needs and Preferences: Scientific Information and Tools Long-term datasets Science-based models to analyze and link hydrology, ecological impacts, socio-economic variables Information regarding climate variability and change impacts on river systems and ecosystems Forecasts to indicate estuarine salt water gradients

State of Knowledge Report

Geographic scope About the research The Impact of Drought on Coastal Ecosystems in the Carolinas

Key Themes and Findings Coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to long-term and recurrent severe droughts Changes in freshwater inflows, salinity Difficulties in defining and measuring drought Some systems, processes, and locations have been well-studied and researched Estuarine systems Salt marshes Tidal freshwater forested wetlands Non-alluvial wetlands

Literature Gaps and Research Needs Specific ecosystems and species Long-term studies and causal linkages Tools, models, and ecological indicators to research and monitor drought

NIDIS Pilot Project in the Carolinas Spring 2012 Identified interested organizations, agencies, individuals Informal meeting: NOAA in the Carolinas, March 2012 Steering Committee, May - present Scoping Workshop (July 31-August 1) Identify concerns and needs Identify and/or begin to prioritize key needs Consider the types of activities needed to support a drought early warning system: monitoring, applications, communications, related research