DHP for Houses with Electric FAF Provisional UES Measure Proposal Adam Hadley, Ben Hannas, Bob Davis Regional Technical Forum January 21, 2015

Presentation Outline Measure Overview Background UES Estimate Research Plan RTF Staff Recommendations Proposed Decision 2 - Outline

Measure Overview Review the Measure Properties section on the “Summary” tab of the proposed measure workbook.proposed measure workbook Measure DevelopersBPA, Ecotope Measure DefinitionInstall a 9.5 HSPF or better DHP, with nominal tonnage ≥ 3/4 ton in the main living area of an existing house with existing permanently installed electric forced air furnace space heat. CAT ReviewAdam Hadley Technical Subcommittee ReviewNo Research & Evaluation Subcommittee Review Yes; feedback received from research and evaluation group is included in proposed research plan. NotesThis is a new measure for the RTF; BPA has been offering it for some time. 3 – Measure Overview

Thermostat Control Logic FAF Control DHP Control Together… Measure definition does not modify control strategies; whatever happens, happens. 4 – Measure Overview

5 – Measure Overview

6 – Measure Overview

Background – 2012 Study (LINK)(LINK) Baylon, David, B. Davis, K. Geraghty, L. Gilman. “Ductless Heat Pump Engineering Analysis: Single-Family and Manufactured Homes with Electric Forced- Air Furnaces.” Prepared by Ecotope for BPA. December Overview: 1-year monitoring of 10 MH and 10 SF houses with FAF/DHP (Heating Zone 1) – Energy logging: DHP, FAF, DHW, and whole-house – House and duct audit; pre/post billing analysis – Participant houses were screened to ensure a heating signature was present; only one had significant wood use, one other had minor amounts of wood use. Findings – Savings  – Three occupant Control Strategies Identified 1.Mostly DHP 2.Mostly FAF 3.Mix – Savings likely come from a combination of: Increased efficiency of DHP over FAF Reduced use of the duct system Zoning (lower average interior temperature) House Type Savings, Heating Consumption (kWh/yr) Submetered Savings Results Billing Savings Results (Pre Total – Post Total) MeanSDMeanSD MH SF Total Background

UES - Savings Estimation (Provisional) Step 1: Use findings from 2012 field study to establish baseline and efficient-case energy use (for houses with no supplemental fuels): DHP Engineering Analysis: Single-Family and Manufactured Homes with Electric Forced-Air Furnaces Report: Accessed from BPA DHP site: Table 5. Final Savings Results Savings, Heating Consumption (kWh/yr) HouseSubmetered SavingsBilling Savings Average Savings TypeMeanSDMeanSD MH SF Total Annual Heating Energy use (kWh/yr) House FAF DHP Type(Table 13)(FAF-Savings) MH SF UES

UES - Savings Estimation (Provisional) Step 2: From RBSA Data, estimate supplemental fuel incidence for eFAF houses: Single Family For SF DHP zonal the first two zones were about 25% and zone 3 was about 70%, but for electric FAF zone 1 and 2 are much higher than zone 3, though zone 3 has a large error bound. The second table to the right shows the same summary across all electric primary heated homes and has a much higher percent in zone three, but lower in the first two zones. For this provisonal workbook the average for EFAF across all zones is used, which matches well with zones 1 and 2 for EFAF, and matches zone 3 for all primary electric systems. Secondary supplemental fuel incidence, EFAF, SFSecondary supp. fuel incidence, all primary electric, SF Heat ZoneMeanEBnHeat ZoneMeanEBn 149%13%60138%5% %19%20226%8%93 328%32%5349%17%29 ALL48%11%85ALL36%4%533 Manufactured Home For MH electric FAF homes are very different than SF. Both EFAF and all primary electric homes show much lower distributions in zones 1 and 3, though zone three does not have many homes. For the provisional workbook we'll use the average EFAF scenario. Secondary supplemental fuel incidence, EFAF, MHSecondary supp. fuel incidence, all primary electric, MH Heat ZoneMeanEBnHeat ZoneMeanEBn 17%5%9716%4% %14%35224%12%45 39%15%1238%13%14 ALL12%5%144ALL10%4% UES

UES - Savings Estimation (Provisional) Step 3: Use data from the DHP Zonal study to estimate the impact of supplemental fuel on electric heating energy use. Ductless Heat Pump Impact & Process Evaluation: Billing Analysis Report Baylon, Storm, & Robison. NEEA Report # August 2013 Homes with no supplemental fuel Pre-HeatPost-HeatHome Size Pre-HeatPost-Heat Heat Zone (kWh/yr) (ft²) (kWh/yr/ft²) n ALL Homes with supplemental fuel Pre-HeatPost-HeatHome Size Pre-HeatPost-Heat Heat Zone (kWh/yr) (ft²) (kWh/yr/ft²) n ALL Ratio: Electric Heating Energy Use for houses with Supplemental Fuels Electric Heating Energy Use for Houses without Supplemental Fuels Heat ZoneZonal (Pre)DHP (Post) UES

UES - Savings Estimation (Provisional) Step 4: Calculate Savings as difference between Baseline and Efficient-case Heating Energy Use (with average supplemental fuel use), where NEB – Supplemental Fuel Savings Supplemental fuel benefit calculated as difference in savings between houses without supplemental fuel and average savings; multiplied by average retail electric rate – Same concept as used in the Zonal DHP measure analysis 11 - UES

UES, Cost, Life, B/C, Potential 12 - UES Measure Savings (kWh/yr) Non Electric Fuel Benefit (/year) Measure Cost Measure Life (yrs) TRC B/C Ratio Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Manufactured Home - HZ15736 $ 27 $ 3, Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Manufactured Home - HZ25651 $ 34 $ 3, Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Manufactured Home - HZ35701 $ 29 $ 3, Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Single Family Home - HZ13836 $ 92 $ 3, Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Single Family Home - HZ23592 $ 112 $ 3, Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Single Family Home - HZ33739 $ 100 $ 3, Regional Savings Potential House TypeSFMH Houses in Region4,023,937543,730 RBSA EFAF within Population5.5%51.3% Savings3,7225,696 Applicability (assumption???)50% Total aMW

Research and Evaluation Subcommittee Review Reviewers had adequate time to comment CAT feels the comments have been addressed in the revised research plan – However, another round of follow-up with the commenters would have been preferred if we had more time Commented Version is Posted to RTF Website 13 - Research Plan Received Comments From: Mike Baker Brad Acker Josh Rushton Christopher Frye David Bopp Greg Kelleher Tom Eckhart Jennifer Finnigan Greg Sullivan Lauren Gage - Mark Johnson - Robert Weber - Danielle Walker - Erin Hope

Measure Research Plan 1.Data Collection: Field Metering Study – Purpose – Expands on 2012 Study to: 1.For efficient-case, develop relationship of DHP/FAF heat output fraction to other driving factors (outside air temp, house UA, house layout, occupant control strategy, etc.) – Embed this relationship within SEEM model 2.Understand measure in colder climates/temperatures 3.Provide dataset to calibrate DHP/FAF SEEM model 14 – Research Plan Sample SizeSite BuiltManufactured Heating Zone 110* Heating Zone Heating Zone * = From 2012 Study Note on +’s and –’s: Sample might end up weighted more toward manufactured homes since there are more eFAF’s in MH than SF.

Measure Research Plan 2.Data Collection: Billing Analysis – Purpose Estimate savings at the meter for the population of installations (Along with survey) Estimate impact of non-electric fuels (Along with survey) Calibrate SEEM by control type, or other factors, to population – Sample All sites up to study start date = ~1,000 Expect maybe 200 in Heating Zones 2 and 3 3.Data Collection: Homeowner Phone Survey – Purpose: Collect data on wood/supplemental fuel use, control strategy, house size, etc. – Sample: ~1000 sites (< 500 complete) 15 – Research Plan

Measure Research Plan Analysis Plan – Field Research to develop and calibrate SEEM simulation (for houses with a solid heat signature) – Billing Analysis: Pre/post VBDD for each house Use Billing Analysis and Phone Survey results to estimate impact of supplemental fuels (similar to method used in zonal study: energy consumption pre and post of those with supplemental fuels vs those without) Also used as a QC check on resulting UES values after many manipulations through SEEM – Use Phone Survey results to establish a population- weighted control strategy mix (and same for other critical variables) – Using newly calibrated version of SEEM, estimate UES. 16 – Research Plan

Measure Research Plan Budget 17 – Research Plan Study ComponentEstimated Cost Billing Study and Homeowner Survey$85,730 Field Metering Study$280,760 - Optional Remote Data Collection$36,000 Total $366,490 to $402,490

RTF Staff Recommendations RTF staff recommendation on the UES estimate: – Overall, savings methodology fine for provisional UES measure. Note: UES estimate uses non-electric fuel impact from zonal study, which doesn’t factor in differences in operation of electric FAF and its duct losses. UES estimate assumes similar baseline and efficient-case heating electricity use for heating zones 1, 2, and 3 (for houses without supplemental fuels) RTF staff recommendation on research plan: – Research plan is reasonable Before investing in the full research plan, however, the Region should double- check, using the existing data from the 2012 study, that the proposed plan isn’t majorly flawed – Investigate DHP/FAF fraction versus important factors – Investigate calibrating SEEM to post-data collected in metering study The Billing Study could get the measure to Proven on its own (maybe just for heating zone 1), but we wouldn’t have a way to model the DHP/FAF system for other measures Sample size of 60 might not be enough to generate a reliable relationship between DHP/FAF fraction and important factors (OAT, UA, control strategy, etc.) 18 - Recommendations

Decision “I _________ move that the RTF approve the measure definition, savings, life, cost, and research plan for the UES measure Residential Existing MH and SF Ductless Heat Pumps for Electric Forced-Air to: Provisional category; Active status; with a sunset date of January 2016.” Note: The intention of the 1-year sunset date is for the RTF to check in on whether the research is being supported by the Region Decision

Additional Slides For Reference 20

Example: DHP/Zonal Fractions vs OAT and UA (from zonal DHP analysis) 21 – Additional Slides

22 – Additional Slides