The National Climate Assessment Overview of Status and Progress NCADAC August 16, 2011 Katharine Jacobs Office of Science and Technology Policy

NCADAC Executive Secretariat Jerry Melillo, Chair Marine Biological Laboratory Terese Richmond, Vice-Chair Gordon Derr, LLP Gary Yohe, Vice-Chair Wesleyan University James Buizer Arizona State University David Gustafson Monsanto Company Sharon Hays Computer Sciences Corporation Thomas Karl Subcommittee on Global Change Research Jo-Ann Leong Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology and Oregon State University Susanne Moser Susanne Moser Research & Consulting and Stanford University Richard Moss University of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Lindene Patton Zurich Financial Services Andrew Rosenberg University of New Hampshire, Conservation International Donald Wuebbles University of Illinois 2

NCADAC Working Groups Scenarios and Regional Summaries (Moss) Request for Information (Patton, Fleming) Peer Review, Information Standards, and Access (Richmond, Hays) Engagement, Communication, and Evaluation (Maibach, Moser) Regional Coordination (Yohe, Carter) Sectoral Coordination (Buizer, Gade) Science of Climate Change (Karl, Wuebbles) Agenda for Climate Change Science (Janetos, Liverman) Adaptation and Mitigation (Bierbaum, Lee, Smith) Indicators Development and Evaluation (Janetos and ?) International (Hales) Long Term Process (?) 3

NCA Goal and Vision (Working Group 1) The overarching goal is to enhance the ability of the United States to anticipate, mitigate and adapt to changes in the global environment. The vision is to advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision- making across the United States. 4

Strategic Plan (Working Group 1) Sustainable process with multiple products over time New topics, cross-sectoral studies Consistent national matrix of indicators Central coordination, multiple partners Regional and sectoral networks building assessment capacity Recognizes international context Engagement and communications focus Web-based data and tools for decision support Process workshops to establish methodologies 5

6 Initiate “topical” and assessment process reports that will be completed at a defined date post Full draft of report available for public and expert review. Sectors Cross-cutting topics Regions The Continuing NCA Process (WG 1) Full assessment reports 6 Regional and sectoral assessments and stakeholder engagement Technical Input Reports due March 1, 2012 Expressions of Interest Due October 1, 2011

Highlights of Outline for 2013 Report The scientific basis for climate change Sectors and sectoral cross-cuts Regions and biogeographical cross-cuts Mitigation and adaptation Agenda for climate change science The NCA long-term process 7 Working Group 1: For Regions and Sectors, start with the 2009 document and focus on what’s new “The Art of the Possible”

Regional Teams Now Established (Regions WG) 8 RegionLead AgencyLead ContactNCADAC Liaison NortheastNOAARosenzweigYohe Southeast +Caribbean NOAAIngram, Carter, Dow, Brown Carter MidwestNOAA, USDAHatfield, ScaviaPryor Great PlainsDOI, NOAAKluck, Brown, ShaferPosey SouthwestDOI, NOAAOverpeck, GarfinLiverman NorthwestDOI, NOAAMote Alaska + ArcticDOI, NOAAHolland-Bartels, Partain, Trainor Chapin Hawaii + Pacific Islands DOI, NOAAMarra, SpoonerLeong First Regional Meeting in SW – Aug 2-4, 2011

Regions 9 Northeast Southeast and Caribbean Midwest Great Plains Northwest Southwest Alaska and Arctic Hawaii and Pacific Islands + Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands + Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and other minor outlying islands

Biogeographical Cross-Cuts Oceans and marine resources (Team has formed, led by Rosenberg and Armbrust; NOAA is lead agency) Coastal zone, development, and ecosystems, with case studies including – SF Bay Delta – Chesapeake – Gulf Coast Drainage basins (WATERSHEDS?), with case studies including – Great Lakes – Colorado River – Columbia River 10 Watersheds may be handled as “nested assessments within Regional teams,” e.g., Colorado in SW, Columbia in NW First Biogeographical X-Cut meeting Colorado River Evaluation of Assessment Capacity June 6-7, 2011

Sector Teams Established (Sectors WG) SectorLead AgencyLead ContactNCADAC Liaison Water ResourcesUSACE, USGSBales, PietrowskyGeorgakakos, Fleming Energy Supply and Use DOEVallarioFranco, Dell TransportationDOTRypinskiSchwartz AgricultureUSDAWalthallGustafson ForestryUSFSVose, PetersonMelillo Ecosystems and Biodiversity USGSCarterKareiva Human HealthHHSBalbus, TrtanjMcGeehin, Luber 11 First Sectoral Assessment meeting Forestry Sector, July 11-14, 2011

Cross-Sector Teams (Sectors WG) 12 Cross-SectorLead AgencyLead ContactNCADAC Liaison Water, Energy, LandDOEVallarioJanetos Urban, Infrastructure, Vulnerabilities DOE, NOAAVallario, RosenzweigFleming Tribal Land and Resources NASA, NOAAMaynard, KluckBennett Land Use and Land Cover Change USFS, USGSLoveland, Patel-Weynand Rural Communities, Ag., Development USDAWalshHales Impacts on Biogeochmeical Cycles DOE, USDAKuperberg, OlsonMelillo First X-Sectoral Team meetings, Water-Energy-Land Urban-Infrastructure-Vulnerability

Other WG Milestones RFI – Issued July 13, 2011 Scenarios and Regional Summaries – First presentations, SW Regional Assessment Meeting, Aug 2-3 Global Change Information Portal – Approval of initial governance proposal and establishment of Project Manager (Anne Waple) at USGCRP Principals meeting Aug 11 Engagement / Communication / Evaluation – developed preliminary logic model to guide evaluation, preliminary implementation plan for communications underway 13

Communicating about NCA Presentations about the NCA –8 Listening Sessions at professional society meetings –20 Workshops (process, regional, sectoral) –20+ Informational Briefings (agencies, Congressional staff, NGOs, invited keynotes, etc.) Presentation materials –Two-page “Introduction to the National Climate Assessment” –Standard informational presentation on the NCA Website (initial website running, revisions underway) Newsletter distributed every 6 weeks (+) via to people 14

Strategic Planning “Sustained Assessments” is one of four goals in the draft USGCRP strategic plan for the next ten years; draft to be released to the public within a month or so. Developing this draft has been a major effort involving a writing team of 60 people; Fred Lipschultz has been representing the Assessment. “Build and Sustain Assessments” is proposed as one of five FY 13 USGCRP Priorities; a template showing programs that are critical to protect in light of budget cutting exercises is being developed. 15

Process Workshops 16 1.Midwest Regional Workshop 2.Strategic Planning 3.Outline and Workplan 4.International Context 5.Communications 6.Knowledge Management 7.Regional and Sectoral Approach 8.Ecological Indicators (coming soon) 9.Scenarios (coming soon) 10.Modeling (coming soon) 11.Valuation (coming soon) 12.Vulnerability Assessment 13.Physical Indicators (coming soon) 14.Societal Indicators (coming soon) Blue = Report available Black = Summary available (no formal report)

Outcomes of the NCA (Engagement, Communication, and Evaluation WG) Ongoing, relevant analysis of scientific understanding of climate change impacts, risk, and vulnerability Enhanced timely access to Assessment-related data from multiple sources Systematic evaluation of progress towards reducing risk, vulnerability, and impacts A sustained process for informing an integrated research program Evaluation of the implications of alternative adaptation and mitigation policy options Information that provides the foundation for a science-based national discourse on climate change 17

NCA Staff OSTP and USGCRP / Washington, DC Katharine Jacobs NCA Director, OSTP Sheila O’Brien* Chief of Staff Emily Therese Cloyd* Public Participation and Engagement Coordinator Bryce Golden-Chen* Program Administrator Ralph Cantral Sectoral Coordinator (NOAA detailee) Fred Lipschultz Regional Coordinator (NASA detailee) Bill Emanuel Senior Scientist (DOE detailee) Nancy Grimm Senior Scientist (NSF detailee) Julie Maldonado* Engagement Assistant Melissa Kenney AAAS Fellow, NOAA Chelsea Combest-Friedman Knauss Fellow, NOAA Chelcy Ford Scientist (USFS detailee) NOAA NCDC / Asheville, NC Anne Waple NOAA Assessments Manager Ken Kunkel Science Lead for Assessments Brooke Stewart Assessments Services Scientific Coordinator John Keck Technical Lead Doreen DiCarlo Program Coordinator Julie Moore Administrative Support NOAA / Washington, DC and Silver Spring, MD Cynthia Decker NCADAC Designated Federal Official Kandis Wyatt NCADAC Designated Federal Official (Alternate) Stephanie Herring NOAA Liaison to the National Climate Assessment 18 * = UCAR STAFF

August-October Schedule Date & LocationEventNCA StaffNCADAC Member August 18 Lakewood, CO NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Great Plains Lipschultz August Keshena, WI Great Lakes Tribal Climate Change Summit CantralBennett, Wuebbles September 4-8 Seattle, WA American Fisheries SocietyGrimm September 12 Anchorage, AK NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Alaska LipschultzChapin September Ann Arbor, MI Great Lakes Coastal Habitat Conservation Workshop Cloyd September Seattle, WA NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Pacific Northwest LipschultzMote September 26 Chicago, IL Enhancing Decision Making (ACCO, USGCRP) Cloyd 19

August-October Schedule Date & LocationEventNCA StaffNCADAC Member September Atlanta, GA NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Southeast KunkelCarter October 4 Alexandria, VA NASA Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Emanuel, Cloyd, Lipschultz October San Antonio, TX ASA-CCSA-SSSA, Soil, Crop, and Enviro Sci Meeting October 27 Denver, CO WCRP Open Meeting with proposed USGCRP Town Hall Oct 29 – Nov 2 Washington, DC American Public Health Association Oct 31 – Nov 2 Washington DC 2011 GreenGov Symposium (CEQ and ACCO) Jacobs 20

Questions??? 21