2012 AAG Annual Meeting Panel Session “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Communicating across Disciplinary Boundaries: Atmospheric Sciences in Geography 1 4:40 PM, February 24, 2012 Hilton Hotel, New York, NY Panelists: Christopher Badurek – Appalachian State University Mark D Schwartz – University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee Julie Silva – University of Maryland Louis Uccellini – NOAA

Global Observing System Computers (supercomputers, work stations) Data Assimilation & Modeling/Science Background: NCEP Where America’s Weather, Climate, Ocean and Space Weather Prediction Services Begin Three Major Components of the Numerical Prediction Enterprise Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction 2

Land Ocean Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers BIOLOGY/CHEMISTRY NOW BEING INCLUDED Atmosphere Cryosphere Model Production Suite 3

4 AttributeCFS v1.0 Operational Since 2004 CFS v2.0 Operational Since March 2011 Analysis Resolution200 km27 km Atmosphere model2003: 200 km/64 levels Humidity based clouds 2010: 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level OSU LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and 3-layer interactive sea ice model CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output24/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS)

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February 4-11, 2010 : “Snowmageddon” February 4-7, 2010: massive winter storm paralyzes mid-Atlantic region –Locations in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia recorded more than 30 inches of snow. –Washington DC’s two-day total of 17.8 inches ranked as the fourth highest total storm amount in history. –Philadelphia’s 28.5 inches ranked as the second highest amount –Baltimore’s 24.8 inches ranked as its third highest storm total amount Strong blizzard during February 9-11 affects same areas still digging out from earlier storm. –Produced as much as 14 inches in the D.C. area, 20 inches in Baltimore, 17 inches in New Jersey, more than 27 inches in Pennsylvania, and 24 inches in northern Maryland. Storm system predicted 7+ days in advance; potential for heavy snow 3-5 days in advance States implement COOP plans, airlines cancel flights, retail industry pre-stocks shelves 6 Feb 4-7, 2010Feb 9-11,

7 Hurricane Irene Track Forecast August 20, 2011 – August 27, 2011

8 Precipitation Forecast Loop Precipitation Verification Loop Hurricane Irene Precipitation August 26 – 29, 2011

Outlook issued 5 days prior; Moderate Risk issued 3 days in advance; High Risk issued 16 hours in advance Coordination calls initiated w/FEMA and state emergency managers 3 days in advance Average warning lead time 24 min 209 tornadoes, 316 fatalities Deadliest outbreak since March 21, tornado fatalities in 2011, 4 th deadliest year since 1925 Issues identified at Norman, OK event: Weather Ready Nation - A Vital Conversation Demands social-physical science partnership to address the “last mile” in watches/warnings/understanding/response 9 April 27-28, 2011 Southeast Tornado Outbreak 10AM – 11PM CDT April 27,

10 Key Themes of Weather Ready Nation: A Vital Conversation Norman, OK, December 2011 Integrate strongly social and physical science into the future end-to-end extreme weather forecast and warning process – from research to operations. Essential to complete the “last mile” in the forecast warning decision support response. Review carefully the issue of warning false alarms to determine physical science improvements and other strategies that can be used to reduce false alarms without decreasing threat detection and warning lead-time. Assess and update warning dissemination strategy. –Geo-targeting mobile devices specified Improve outreach and education Advance physical modeling of severe weather to provide improved lead- time, accuracy and precision necessary to facilitate tornado warnings based on weather forecast model output (“Warn on Forecast”). –Land model improvements are included Transform the National Weather Service (NWS) Assessment following major severe weather outbreaks into one more like the assessments of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) following major transportation disasters. 10

11 Concluding Remarks Advance of predictive skill based on numerical models – one of the top intellectual advances of the 20 th century Based increasingly on earth systems models and interdisciplinary science –Including geography/meteorology/oceanography 2013 AMS Annual Meeting theme: –“Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today’s Weather and Climate Forecasts and Projections” –Designed to build off interdisciplinary partnerships –An important partnership involves the atmospheric-ocean sciences-geography intersection –Completing the “last mile” to expand beyond today’s forecasts points to a physical science-social science intersection/overlap, especially for mitigation and adaptation