Athena 2011 Panagiotis J. Tsakonas- Triantafyllos Karatrantos University of the Aegean HOW IS CLIMATE CHANGE LINKED TO SECURITY

Climate Change Climate change represents the latest in a series of environmental drivers of human conflict that have been identified in recent decades, including drought, desertification, land degradation, failing water supplies, deforestation, fisheries depletion, and even ozone depletion. dealing effectively with climate change would necessitate drastic changes to the use of fossil fuels, climate change quickly became an economic and energy policy issue. But in just the past few years, the language of climate change has shifted once again. Climate change is now being recast as a threat to international peace and security.

Climate Change as a Threat Over the long term, climate change will lead to additional resource scarcity and environmental degradation, and may thus amplify or trigger social and political tensions, conflicts and security problems. The impacts of climate change will thus additionally impair the capacity of societies to transform conflicts in a constructive and peaceful manner, and will constrain the capacity of state institutions to deliver key services and ensure public order and stability climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier, which may create or exacerbate insecurities and tensions from the individual to the international level.

The 3 Linkages Contribute to violent conflict and disputes from the local to the international level. Lead to state fragility, radicalization and degrading state capacities to implement policies. Degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc.

Southern Mediterranean

South East and Eastern Europe

South Caucasus and Central Asia

UN In 1987, the «Brundtland Report» introduces in the discussion the notion of environmental security. In 1994, UNDP described the concept of Human Security, with environmental threats being its basic pillar. In “2004 Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change”, climate change was listed as a threat to human security and as a “threat multiplier”. In 2007, after the suggestion of the United Kingdom, a discussion about Climate, Energy and Security took place in the Security Council. The General Assembly of the United Nations (U.N.) adopted on 3 June 2009 a draft resolution on “Climate change and its possible security implications” (A/63/281), which has been proposed by the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS). The resolution was adopted by a consensus and 101 states supported it. For the first time in the history of the U.N., the United States co- sponsored a climate protection resolution.

OSCE As part of its comprehensive approach to security, the OSCE is concerned with economic and environmental matters, recognizing that co-operation in these areas can contribute to peace, prosperity and stability. A member of ENVSEC since 2004, OSCE --through the Office for Economic and Environmental Activities-- publishes reports, collects information and supports the civic action for environment and security. OSCE Strategy Document for the Economic and Environmental Dimension (Maastricht Strategy) listed climate change as the basic environmental threat to security. In 2009 OSCE formed the Civic Action for Security and Environment (CASE), a small grant programme which supports civil society organizations in addressing --in co-operation with their governments—environmental security issues. Finally, OSCE considers water scarcity as one of the most imminent security threats to South- Eastern Europe, Central Asia and South Caucasus.

NATO Based on a broad definition of security that recognizes the importance of political, economic, social and environmental factors, NATO is addressing security challenges emanating from the environment. This includes extreme weather conditions, depletion of natural resources, pollution and so on – factors that can ultimately lead to disasters, regional tensions and violence. NATO is currently conducting these initiatives via its Science for Peace and Security programme, the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (EADRCC) and Partnership for Peace Trust Fund projects. It is considering enhancing its efforts in this area, with a focus on civil emergencies, energy efficiency and renewable power, and on helping member and partner countries address the impact of climate change in vulnerable regions.

EU Climate change is one of the biggest challenges mankind faces in the coming years. Rising temperatures, melting glaciers and increasingly frequent droughts and flooding are all evidence that climate change is really happening. The risks for the whole planet and for future generations are colossal and we need to take urgent action. For several years now the European Union has been committed to tackling climate change both internally and internationally and has placed it high on the EU agenda. «Global warming and environmental degradation is altering the face of our planet» Report on the Implementation of the European Security Strategy - Providing Security in a Changing World – p.1

Join Report The Report, under the title, «Climate Change and International Security» outlines some of the forms of conflicts Conflict over resources, Economic damage and risk to coastal cities and critical infrastructure, Loss of territory and border disputes, Environmentally-induced migration, Situations of fragility and radicalization, Tension over energy supply, Pressure on international governance

‘Lessons learned’ from global and regional institutions In the face of such challenges, it is crucial that the International Community and its institutions take effective action with regard to: Predicting Instability. This entails increased monitoring, risk assessments, and early warning in an effort to discern dangers of impending and future conflicts at an early stage. Preventing Conflict. This encompasses a range of policy instruments and measures intended to avoid a situation where increasing pressures translate into growing tensions and armed conflict. Managing Conflict. Of course, there are conflict situations (such as Darfur) that are the product of environmental and associated pressures. These, and possible future cases, need to be dealt with more effectively, in an effort to end violence and counter instability. Recovery and Transition. Even after a conflict has been terminated, there are continued challenges. There is a high risk that countries emerging from conflict will fall back into war and violence. To work towards a sustainable peace, post-conflict restoration and reconstruction will need to encompass environmental and resource aspects.

The “American perspective” USA perceived climate change as a threat to national security. According to NIC while the United States "is better equipped than most nations to deal with climate change," the impact on other countries has the "potential to seriously affect U.S. national security interests." Climate change was mentioned as a global challenge for security and prosperity in page 8 of the National Security Strategy Document «Climate change and pandemic disease threaten the security of regions and the health and safety of the American people». Natural disasters and growing competition for resources listed as threats in the National Defense Strategy, p. 1 and in p. 5 «The interaction of these changes with existing and future resource, environmental, and climate pressures may generate new security challenges. »

The “European Perspective” (Germany and Denmark) For European countries, and especially for Germany and Denmark environmental security is part of their political and strategic culture. Since the 1990’s those two countries have integrated the linkages of the environment with security and foreign policy to their policies. After 2001 and the Millennium Development Goals Germany and Denmark posed their attention to climate change and international security. In 2007 two major reports, one for each country, branded the analysis for Climate change as a security threat. Germany through WBGU, German Advisory Council on Climate Change, and Denmark through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the IISD (International Institute for Sustainable Development). Both the reports listed Climate Change as a threat to International Security and addressing institutional responses.

‘Lessons learned’ from states policies Intelligence Agencies should incorporate climate consequences into its Intelligences Estimates. National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests. The National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy should include appropriate guidance to military planners to assess risks to current and future missions of projected climate change, guidance for updating defense plans based on these assessments, and the capabilities needed to reduce future impacts. Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events, pandemic disease events, and other missions. Evaluate the capacity of the military and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change. All levels of government need to be involved in these efforts to provide capacity and resiliency to respond and adapt.

Future Agenda Awareness Raising it is necessary to keep the topic of climate change and its impact on international security high on the international agenda to ensure follow-up action. Further Research: Knowledge regarding climate change impacts is still very limited beyond the general global trends. Further research and analysis on regional and national levels, starting with pilot regions and countries, is necessary. International System Development: The different international frameworks working on issues related to climate change – mitigation and adaptation, emission trading, food, water, energy, etc. – need to be linked and integrated to allow for a comprehensive approach.

Greece as an Environmental Leader?

There be a “Green Role” for Greece Greece has a unique opportunity for a new role in the Mediterranean Region, the South- Eastern Europe and Southern Caucasus. The role of the «Environmental Leader», builds on combined strengths and field presence to the leading international organizations to perform three key functions: assessment of environment and security risks, capacity building and institutional development to strengthen environmental cooperation as well as integration of environmental and security concerns and priorities in regional and national policy-making. Greece, with the experience of natural disasters minimized by climate change, the forest fires of 2007 and 2009, should address the challenge as opportunity and learn the lessons from the American perspective of climate change and national security, and to include it to Foreign Policy and National Defense doctrines, which are now under review.