Public Opinion

Definition Expression of attitudes concerning government and politics Many “publics” Influenced by political socialization and demography

How is public opinion measured? Polls: person, PHONE, internet, mail Concerns? What are focus groups? Interactive group setting Gallup poll (1932) – scientific method Others: Pew Research, Zogbys, etc.

Polling in elections Tracking polls Exit polls-only way we know how demographic groups voted since ballots are secret

Key poll terms to know Sample: representative of universe Universe: group to be measured Random sample: crucial to validity, equal probability of being selected Accurate representation is key---quality not quantity Sampling error: margin of error +/- 3 points is considered accurate

What are the pros of polling in public office? More democratic More efficient than waiting for next election Political participation

What are the cons of polling? Discourages bold leadership since candidate follows polls too much Bandwagon effect among voters Horserace coverage by media Exit polls (most criticized) Wording can get a specific result Do you favor ending the war in the Middle East? Do you favor ending the war in the Middle East no matter what the cost? Undecided voters can affect poll results

How does polling affect policy? Public opinion polls are a way to link the public with elected officials. Members of Congress often use polls to understand the views of their constituents, but they must also pay attention to other political considerations. a. Identify two characteristics of a valid, scientific, public opinion poll. b. Explain why each of the following enhances the influence of public opinion on the voting decisions of members of Congress. Strong public opinion as expressed in polling results Competitive re-elections c. Explain why each of the following limits the influence of public opinion on the voting decisions of members of Congress. Legislators’ voting records Party leadership

How bad is it? Voter Behavior

Political Efficacy Belief that one can make a difference in politics by expressing an opinion and acting politically

Turnout Percentage of voting age public who actually vote See handout 2000 Census-97 million people DID NOT vote General elections v. Off-year elections Primaries and caucuses?

Factors that Influence Voting Age: Younger demographics are less likely to vote Education: College graduates are more likely to vote than less educated citizens Religion: Jewish voters tend to vote Democratic; Protestant voters tend to be more conservative on economic issues Location: Rural voters are more likely to support Republican candidates while urban voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates Ethnicity: African Americans tend to support more liberal candidates within their party

Why do people not vote? Most common reason is APATHY Political scientists give other reasons for non- voting that may contribute to apathy among American voters Divided into 3 categories Demographic Psychological Institutional

Demographic Reasons for Non-Voting Sociological reasons Income Age Educational level Race or ethnicity Religion All contribute to a sense of no political efficacy

Psychological Reasons For Non-Voting Candidate appeal Issues Weak Party identification Party Identification (Partisanship)- #1 indicator of how a person will vote on election day Voters have increasingly become more focused on individual candidates Negative campaigning

Institutional Reasons for Non-Voting Governmental reasons for non voting Registration and residency requirements Felons denied the right to vote Large number of elections Absentee process is too complicated Ballots are too complex and long Weekday voting Citizenship requirement Independents in closed primary states

Expansion of Voting Even after amendments expanding voting rights past that of the original electorate, the majority of the current electorate does not vote in most elections Which amendments expanded voting rights? 15th 19th 23rd 26th

Voting Rights Act of 1965 Major instrument for increasing the number of African Americans and other minority voters What did the act do in addition to already established voting amendments? Suspended literacy tests Federal examiners to order registration where fewer than %50 Criminal penalties for interfering with the right to vote

Motor Voter Act (1990s) Law requiring states and federal agencies to register voters (DMV, SSA) Impact? Increase voter registration and remove barriers to voting

Help America Vote Act (2002) Law to correct irregularities in the election of 2000 No punchcard machines, federal grants to improve voter education and poll worker training Statewide voter registration system Submit a state plan in order to receive funding Impact? Decrease fraud, more accurate record of voting, transparency in the process

Current Voter Issues Identification requirements in Alabama Politics in registration (registering where they sell hunting licenses in FL) In areas with significant populations of linguistic minorities, voting materials must be made available in the preferred languages of the population Continually declining turnout among young people

How do we change the trends? Remove additional barriers The “convenience factor” Empowerment Lack of motivation Reluctance to confront more experienced citizens