PART 3: American Political Practice

VOTING and ELECTIONS July 9 th, 2003

Voting and Elections the electoral system and practice of elections in the United States is geared towards maximizing opportunities for mass public participationthe electoral system and practice of elections in the United States is geared towards maximizing opportunities for mass public participation –this is the ideal –when this is not achieved in practice, it is perceived to be a problem

Voting and Elections Campaigns and ElectionsCampaigns and Elections –primaries –general elections Campaign financingCampaign financing public opinion pollingpublic opinion polling Voting TurnoutVoting Turnout Initiatives/ReferendumsInitiatives/Referendums

Primary Elections types of primariestypes of primaries –primary elections vs. primary caucuses –primary elections –closed primary –open primary –blanket primary

Primary Elections Presidential primariesPresidential primaries –delegate selection proportional vs. winner-take-allproportional vs. winner-take-all –primary schedule –bellwether states e.g. New Hampshiree.g. New Hampshire

General Elections Presidential ElectionsPresidential Elections –the electoral college winner take all on a state by state basiswinner take all on a state by state basis e.g. whoever gets the most votes in Florida gets all of Florida’s 25 electoral college votese.g. whoever gets the most votes in Florida gets all of Florida’s 25 electoral college votes Congressional ElectionsCongressional Elections –winner take all –importance for election strategies

Primary and General Elections different electoral strategiesdifferent electoral strategies primariesprimaries –no partisan guide more volatilemore volatile money, advertising, name recognition more importantmoney, advertising, name recognition more important –run to the party general electionsgeneral elections –run to the centre guaranteed vote of party idenitifiersguaranteed vote of party idenitifiers must compete for votes of independents, weak identifiersmust compete for votes of independents, weak identifiers

Elections – Influences... incumbencyincumbency –safe seats –contested seats – key races –importance of redistricting Presidential “coat-tail” effectPresidential “coat-tail” effect –popularity of president

Presidential & Mid-Term Elections Change in House of Representative Seats

Presidential & Mid-Term Elections Change in Senate Seats

Elections – Influences... incumbencyincumbency Presidential “coat-tail” effectPresidential “coat-tail” effect the economythe economy

Campaign Financing $1 billion dollars in TV ads $1 billion dollars in TV ads basic rulesbasic rules –FEC –public funding – matching funds –spending limits –contribution limits –disclosure requirements the problem of “soft money”the problem of “soft money” –contributions to parties (as opposed to candidates)

Campaign Financing the rules collapse...the rules collapse... –spending limits enforced by federal matching funding –the problem of “soft money” contributions to parties (as opposed to candidates)contributions to parties (as opposed to candidates)

Campaign Financing Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, 2002Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, 2002 –bans the use of soft money by federal parties not state and local partiesnot state and local parties –does not alter the ability of independent groups to run issue campaigns e.g. numerous loopholes still existe.g. numerous loopholes still exist

Public Opinion Polls centrality of pollingcentrality of polling misuse of pollsmisuse of polls –nation-wide polls –misreading polls

Voter Turnout levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout explaining voter turnoutexplaining voter turnout –low voter turnout –declining voter turnout

Explaining Voter Turnout registration proceduresregistration procedures requires registrationrequires registration motor voter lawsmotor voter laws why is voter registration even an issue?why is voter registration even an issue? low voter turnoutlow voter turnout voter fatiguevoter fatigue voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction

Voter Turnout high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation –range of elective offices

Elections in Massachusetts PresidentPresident US House of RepresentativesUS House of Representatives US SenateUS Senate state governorstate governor state representativestate representative state senatestate senate state attorney generalstate attorney general state auditorstate auditor state treasurer secretary of state county commissioner sheriff clerks of courts mayor city councillors school committee members

Voter Turnout high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation –range of elective offices –primary elections –referendums and initiatives actual participationactual participation –primaries (5%-20%) –general election (45%-55%) Canada -- averages near 65%Canada -- averages near 65%

Explaining Voter Turnout strategic votingstrategic voting –vote in elections that are close races Florida predicted 60-2%, South Dakota predicted 75%Florida predicted 60-2%, South Dakota predicted 75% –vote in elections with candidates that voter has strong feelings for/against –vote in elections with issues of relevance to voter the “Seinfeld” election?the “Seinfeld” election? –vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in play

Explaining Voter Turnout low voter turnoutlow voter turnout voter fatiguevoter fatigue voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction voter disaffectionvoter disaffection

Explaining Voter Turnout – Voter Disaffection declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout –demographics –fewer differences between party electoral strategyelectoral strategy less interest in who winsless interest in who wins –less effort at voter mobilization by parties

Explaining Voter Turnout – Voter Disaffection do elections matter?do elections matter? –incumbency elections are referedums on incumbentselections are referedums on incumbents incumbent has to do something to loseincumbent has to do something to lose challenger finds it hard to get money, hard to break cyclechallenger finds it hard to get money, hard to break cycle –primaries –winner-take-all –economy

Explaining Voter Turnout – Some Observations voter turnout and September 11 thvoter turnout and September 11 th voter turnout and split Congressvoter turnout and split Congress –split Congress leads to high competition –high competition leads to negative campaigning –negative campaigning leads to depressed voter turnout

Referendums and Initiatives – What are They? What are They?What are They? –initiative – proposal to put some issue to a referendum requires 3%-15% of voters to signrequires 3%-15% of voters to sign –proposition referendum question put directly on the ballotreferendum question put directly on the ballot

Referendums and Initiatives – How and When Are They Used? allowed by 24 statesallowed by 24 states –half of all initiatives take place in five states Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, ArizonaOregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, Arizona success ratesuccess rate 50% once they are on the ballot50% once they are on the ballot CaliforniaCalifornia 8-12 propositions on EACH ballot8-12 propositions on EACH ballot some propositions of VERY considerable importancesome propositions of VERY considerable importance

Main Point! the American political system is geared towards providing considerable opportunities for mass political participationthe American political system is geared towards providing considerable opportunities for mass political participation actual levels of mass participation may not reach the “ideal”; however, consensus that the “ideal” is high mass participationactual levels of mass participation may not reach the “ideal”; however, consensus that the “ideal” is high mass participation