O5 - 1 Sick Musicians

O5 - 2 Scenario: Sick Musicians May 17, 2003 – A 3-day jazz festival begins in Zagreb, with approximately 500 musicians and 20,000 fans from Europe, Asia, Africa, and North America in attendance. At 6:00 a.m. on May 20th, a small hotel in the heart of the downtown reports to police the death of a foreign musician from one of the featured jazz groups from Africa and the serious illness of three other members of the group. All were staying in the same hotel, having arrived two days ago. 6:10 a.m. – A lobby attendant tells the hotel manager he recognized the men, that they had been in the hotel bar until 2:30 a.m. the night before, apparently celebrating the last night of festivities.

O5 - 3 Sick Musicians (cont.) 7:05 a.m. – A doctor on the scene attributes the cause of death to a “tropical disease” with symptoms he has never seen before. He’s not certain that the three ill musicians will survive. 7:25 a.m. – Police examination of the travel documents of the jazz group shows that they traveled through Paris to Zagreb from the Central African Republic (CAR) three days ago. Police begin checking travel documents of other musicians staying in the hotel.

O5 - 4 Sick Musicians (cont.) 10:50 a.m. -- Croatian authorities have determined that there is an active outbreak of Ebola in CAR and that pending further tests, Ebola could not be ruled out as a cause of death. At least 75 other musicians were staying at the same hotel. A second infected musician dies. By noon, police estimate that ninety percent of the 500 musicians had probably already departed Zagreb, either returning home or heading to other follow-on musical celebrations in 42 cities in Europe, Asia, Africa, and North and South America. 5:00 p.m. – Authorities compile a partial list of musicians’ known destinations, based on travel documents they were able to obtain throughout the day.

O5 - 5 List of Known Destinations Rome Brussels Sofia London Stockholm Budapest Nairobi Prague Tblisi Warsaw Kiev Moscow Bucharest Bern Lagos Cape Town Oslo Paris Moscow New Delhi Moscow Riga Berlin Montreal Lisbon Bratislava Ljubljana