SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer December 2011 Survey Findings Prepared by Ipsos-Synovate Release Date: 19 th January 2012

2 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Study Objectives To determine the knowledge of the general public on: -The IEBC and its Mandate -Electoral Requirements (voter and presidential candidate) and -Electable Seats. To assess the perceptions of the general public towards the ICC process in regards to: -Level of support -Reasons for support or non-support Preferred presidential candidate.

Methodology

4 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Survey Methodology Dates of polling 12 th – 19 th December 2011 Sample Size 2,000 respondents Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Data collection methodology Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

5 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Sampling Frame Statistics Ipsos-Synovate Sample Frame statistics (December 2011) Population Census as at 2009 (18 years +) IIEC Voter Register (August 2010 Referendum) Registered Voters as at ECK 2007 Voter Register Base 2,000 19,462,360 12,616,627 14,088,302 Central13% 16% Coast9% 8% Eastern15% 16%17% Nairobi10% 8% North Eastern5% 3%2% Nyanza13% 11%15% Rift Valley25% 24%23% Western10% 11% Total100%

The IEBC and its Mandate

7 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) “Are you aware of the following organisations or institutions?” (By Total)

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Base: Those aware of the IEBC (n=1,007) “Are you aware of the following organisations or institutions?” (By age, gender & setting) 8

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “Other than organizing elections, what are the other functions of the IEBC?” (By Total) Base: n=1,007 (Those aware of the IEBC) 9

Voter Registration Requirements

11 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Constitutional Requirements for Registration as a Voter Article 83 (1): A person qualifies for registration as a voter at elections or referenda if the person (a) is an adult citizen (b) is not declared to be of unsound mind and; (c) has not have been convicted of an election offence during the preceding five years

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “What are the requirements for you to register as a voter?” (By Total) Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) 12

Intention to Vote in the Next General Election

14 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 The History of Voter Turnout in Kenya Source:

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “Do you intend to vote in the next general election?” (By Total) Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) 15

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “Do you intend to vote in the next general election?” (By Province) Base: All Respondents 16

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “Do you intend to vote in the next general election?” (By Gender, Age and Setting) Base: All Respondents 17

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “Why will you not vote in the next general election?” Base: Those indicating that they do NOT intend to vote the next general elections (n = 180) 18

Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner

20 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner Article 138/4: A presidential candidate will be declared a winner if : 1.The candidate garners “50%+1” of all votes cast in the election and; 2.The candidate garners at least 25% in more than half (i.e. 24) of the 47 counties.

21 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Those aware of “Candidate garners 50% +1 of all votes cast” Base All Respondents; November (n=2,000) December (n=2,000) Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Total)

22 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Those aware of “Candidate garners 50% +1 of all votes cast” Base: All Respondents Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Province)

23 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Those aware of “Candidate garners at least 25% of votes cast in more than half (i.e 24) of the 47 counties” Base: All Respondents Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Province)

24 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Those aware of both requirements Base All Respondents; December (n=2,000) Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Total)

Electable Positions

26 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Electable Positions New Constitution 1.President 2.Member of Parliament 3.Councilor 4.Governor 5.Senator 6.County Women’s Representative 7.County Assembly Representative 8.Mayor (Cities ) Old Constitution 1.President 2.Member of Parliament 3.Councilor

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “Apart from the President, what other political positions will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?” (By Total) Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) 27

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “Apart from the President, what other political positions will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?” (By Province ) Focus on Senator and Governor Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) 28

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) “Apart from the President, what other political positions will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?” Focus on County Women’s Representative % of those aware of Women’s Representative as an electable position 29

30 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Implications of this Study Voter education programmes -Targeted campaigns to youth and women -Regional communication strategies

The ICC Process

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Those who support the ICC Process – Time Series Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) Before Ocampo 6 list was unveiled After Ocampo 6 list was unveiled Summons issued to appear at The Hague Pre-ICC confirmation of hearing trials Post-ICC confirmation of hearing trials 4 weeks prior to the ICC Confirmation of the charges ruling % who support ICC Trials 32

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “Why are you happy that The ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?” Base: Those who support the ICC process (n=1,081) 33

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 “Why are you happy that The ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?” Base: Those who support the ICC process (n=1,081) 34

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Base: Those against the ICC process (n=707) 35 “Why are you unhappy that The ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”

Ipsos-Synovate “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” By Total

Ipsos-Synovate “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” – Time Series Trend analysis is for the top 6 aspirants

38 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 In Conclusion The ICC ruling on whether to confirm or drop all or some of the charges is likely to change the political landscape and may have an impact of the presidential aspirant ratings. As politicians position themselves for action post the ICC Ruling, the varying support levels for the ICC Trials by region does point to potential regional political re- alignments.

39 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Additional materials available This press release is supported by the following materials; -A PowerPoint presentation - MS-word press releases -An audio recording in Kiswahili of the key findings -An audio recording of the press briefing in English These materials can be downloaded from

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Thank You Q&A. 40

Detailed Poll Methodology

42 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 12 th and 19 th, December To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya. The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. POLL METHODOLOGY

43 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews. The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. Poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including room for other (specify), no response and don’t know. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 20% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing. Poll Methodology (Cont..)

44 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 TotalCentralCoastEasternNairobi North EasternNyanza Rift ValleyWestern 2, Urban37% 51%24%100%21%27%29%21% Rural63% 49%76%0%79%73%71%79% Sampling Frame – Urban & Rural

45 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Methodology Sample distribution – District Level ProvinceDistrictRuralUrbanTotal Central Kiambu Kirinyaga Murang’a Nyeri Thika Coast Kilifi Kwale Malindi Mombasa 055 Taita Taveta Tana River 100 Eastern Embu Kitui Machakos Makueni Mbeere 130 Meru Central Meru North 420 Mwingi 190

46 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Methodology Sample distribution (continued) ProvinceDistrictRuralUrbanTotal Nairobi Embakasi030 Makadara020 Pumwani020 Kasarani040 Dagoretti030 Kibera040 Westlands030 North Eastern Garissa Nyanza Bondo 150 Gucha 310 Kisii Central Kisumu Migori Nyamira (North Kisii) Rachuonyo Siaya 310

47 Ipsos-Synovate 2012 Methodology Sample distribution (continued) ProvinceDistrictRuralUrbanTotal Nairobi Embakasi030 Makadara020 Pumwani020 Kasarani040 Dagoretti030 Kibera040 Westlands030 North Eastern Garissa Nyanza Bondo 150 Gucha 310 Kisii Central Kisumu Migori Nyamira (North Kisii) Rachuonyo Siaya 310

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