ASPO-Australia Peak Oil, Petrol Prices, Climate Change & Rural Communities Dr Jim Barson Convenor of the Health Sector Working Group ASPO-Australia

ASPO-Australia Introduction Overview The Rural Economy Transport Travel & Tourism Industry &Employment Population Health Service Delivery

ASPO-Australia

General Observations Prediction is hard, especially about the future! Peak oil will happen in stages T1-T4 The global situation will set the stage Australia is lucky with large reserves of natural gas, although not where we want it. Potential for mitigation Climate Change is a lot scarier than Peak Oil and they have a common solution set

ASPO-Australia The Rural Economy The rural economy could behave differently to the cities Relocalisation could be seen as a natural response to ↓ mobility? This might reverse the population drift to the cities

ASPO-Australia The Rural Economy Rural areas have some advantages  Capacity for self sufficiency  Rural and regional towns could function very well with reduced car transport  Identity and sense of community

ASPO-Australia The Rural Economy Rural areas have some disadvantages  Fuel prices will be higher with a wider spread, instability and possible shortages  Starting from a lower income base  Less diversity of industry to start with  Services stretched by distance  Road maintenance  Waste collection  Power, water etc.

ASPO-Australia Employment & Business in Rural Communities Some industrial, transport and tourism based employment will likely decrease Some local employment will likely increase  Local small scale (+/-organic) food production will be competitive  Local ingenuity & innovation  Repair, reuse, recycle, reduce  Local services Some services will have to decentralise and expand locally eg. hospitals

ASPO-Australia Employment & Business in Rural Communities Local and seasonal food will be cost competitive Local business will be more competitive Possibly less ‘Big Box’ retail ‘Captive Population’ to support small retailers New technology business opportunities will arise as mobility becomes more expensive.

ASPO-Australia Farming Industry Employment Industrial farming is very energy intensive  Fuel  Fertiliser  Chemicals Farming with less petroleum will employ a lot more labour. Cuba is an interesting case study

ASPO-Australia Tourism Huge employer What will happen to overall numbers?  International visitors (Airfares ? ↑)  Overall economy (? ↓)  Local tourism ↓ with fuel prices ↑ What will happen to short stay B&B ? Will there be an increase in the longer stay accommodation? What will happen to the holiday home market? Local strategies in marketing and mobility will be important

ASPO-Australia Transport & Travel Railways are vitally important as they very fuel efficient and should be rebuilt and expanded as a matter of urgency Road transport will probably decline unless CNG and LNG come on stream soon Public and active transport should increase Small communities will benefit from being linked with minibuses, bike trails and walking tracks Community ride share programs

ASPO-Australia Transport & Travel Sustained high and continuously rising fuel prices will impact on mobility and redefine boundaries Urban Urban-Fringe Regional Rural Remote

ASPO-Australia Transport & Travel Personal mobility will probably decline If car ownership declines  ?Only the wealthy elite  ?Impact on social cohesion  ?Anti-democratic

ASPO-Australia Population in Rural and Regional towns Life without a car will be possible  Work  Education  Food  Fun Local food and industry Sense of community Livable, walkable scale Car free existence possible Critical population for markets, skills, infrastructure

ASPO-Australia Population in Rural and Regional towns How big is big enough? How big is too big? ‘Goldilocks Solution’ Zoning to prevent sprawl Development as linked self sufficient villages Folke, G. Ruralisation- Integrating Settlements and Agriculture to provide Sustainability

ASPO-Australia Health Service Delivery World class system Big problems on the horizon Costs unsustainable on current trends Aging population Unreasonable expectations Peak oil timing could not be worse Things have to change Who gets what, where, when, how, and at whose expense?

ASPO-Australia Peak Oil and Healthcare Deterioration of the economy  Government  Business Unsustainable complexity Decreased mobility for patients and staff Increased costs for all material inputs Need to decrease use of disposables Logistics of drugs and essential goods Service delivery  Food, linen, waste  Outsourcing reversal Will the private practice model of medicine survive Peak Oil?

ASPO-Australia Peak Oil and Rural Healthcare Redefining boundaries  Geographic mobility  Procedural complexity Increased role for small hospitals Increased demand on country doctors  Training and support Reassessment of risk management

ASPO-Australia Some Ideas for Healthcare Delivery High speed broadband  ‘Stranded’ Patient ↔ Consultant  ‘Stranded’ GP ↔ Consultant Live in facilities for staff Mobile service delivery Support for local industries  Generic drugs  Generic equipment Health funding priorities Smart card fuel rationing Rationing of treatments Community discussion and comment

ASPO-Australia Things to do as a Community Talk about Peak Oil and Climate Change Be frugal with fuel Improve efficiency Continue to work on alternative fuels such biodiesel, CNG, LNG

ASPO-Australia Things to do as Individuals Get out of debt, economise, think of how you might live on half your income Move to the non-discretionary side of the economy, aim to satisfy needs not wants Reduce, reuse, repair, recycle Produce as much as you can of what you need and something of value to others Get to know the neighbours, share skills and resources, nobody can do everything but everyone can do something.

ASPO-Australia