Adjustment of China Energy Strategic under the constraint of energy saving and carbon emission Yao Xin July 2010

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 I. China energy strategy ： Follow the rules of international economic development and energy consumption

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 The dual concerns of energy supply and demand The global economic crisis A relative surplus of energy production The future relative shortage of energy

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Resource endowment and economic development can impact energy consumption economic development Resource endowment Characteristics of energy demand

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Energy demand reduced every stage Energy consumption is the rigid The process of industrialization was shorten The urbanization and industrialization were proceeding at the same time Basic rules of international energy consumption

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 China's energy consumption must follow the basic law The high-energy- consumption products for urbanization only can be produced domestic, because of the population Urba nizati on canl not be interr upted Maintai n the econom ic growth energy demand will growth

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 China's energy strategy A national energy strategy, is essential for China. An active energy policy can effectively promote energy efficiency and ensure energy security. China currently has no energy strategy in fact.We need to learn from the experience and lessons of developed countries.We will establish China's long-term energy stratery based on the full understanding of China's energy problems.

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 II ． Environmental constraints in China

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Current situation of global greenhouse gas emissions Economic crisis has affected the progress of reduction McGuire"Seven Years to Save the Planet" Low conventional energy prices will weaken the investment in renewable energy. In fact, a large number of environmental projects have been canceled in the crisis. If greenhouse gases in the 7 years can not be controlled, the Earth will be irreversible into a vicious cycle in 2015.

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Current situation of global greenhouse gas emissions The problem is ： Do we have enough time? What is the key to solving the problem ？

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Developed countries should help developing countries reduce emissions Emissions need to be invested. Developed Countries, not only from the economic and technological strength, but also from the history and fairness, should take on more responsibility to reduce emissions. Developing countries must participate in global emissions reductions Developed country Financial and technical Developing country

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Environmental attitudes in developed countries “I do, I try to help you” “I do, you must do” “I do, you try to do” Developed countries must change their attitude

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 China's environmental strategy Emission reduction strategies For the energy and environment fair Developing countries can not fully rely on the help of the developed countries Developing countries have plenty room for emission reduction in the development process

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 III. Adjustment of China Energy Strategic under the constraint of energy saving and carbon emission

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 How to achieve sustainable development China's economic transformation energy scarcity demand increase Environmental degradation The most challenging problems of China in this century are the future energy and environmental issues, not the current financial crisiss. Unlike developed countries, China's economic development have more environmental constraints.

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 The low carbon economy transition under energy and environmental constraints China's low-carbon economy transition Energy conservation and the development of clean energy Explore and practice low-carbon economy

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 T he Adjustment of China Energy Strategy

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 T he Adjustment of China Energy Strategy Combined with demand side management to meet the energy demand Carbon dioxide emissions as a new constraint on energy strategy The power industry must comply with the overall strategy Energy security as a part of sustainable economic development Adjustment of Energy Strategy

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Combined with demand side management to meet the energy demand energy demand=energy savings + energy supply We combine the demand side management to consider how to satisfy the energy demand, rather than simply based on the energy supply. The government can select either supply or saving investment to minimize the cost of energy demand.

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Carbon dioxide emissions as a new constraint We can get the optimal energy consumption structure, which is the combination of each kind of the primary energy,considering of the emission constraint We change the single constraint to energy growth and energy structure strategy planning, taking CO2 emission into account to satisfy the energy demand. Such as ： CO 2 Emission= 9 Bton After considering the affordable capacity of social economy, we can determine an acceptable energy structure, and further find an optimal combination of primary energy consumption under the specific constraint of carbon dioxide emission.

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Energy diversification  Change the only consideration of strategic petroleum reserve, think energy diversification as a part of energy security. energy security = strategic petroleum reserve + energy diversification Development of new energy will protect China's energy security, diversify energy supply, reduce China's dependence on other country's oil, in order to ensure the future competitiveness of the Chinese economy.

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 T he Adjustment of China Energy Strategy  Consider the energy conservation factor to determine the optimal energy supply  The optimal objective is to choose a combination of supply and saving with minimized investment costs to satisfy the energy demand. China's energy conservation supply curve

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 T he Adjustment of China Energy Strategy  According to the optimal energy supply and emission constraints ， we get the optimal energy structure 2020 年电力装机结构 （ Million tons ） Coal （ % ） Oil （ % ） Gas （ % ） Hydr o （ % ） Nucl ear （ % ） Win d （ % ） Sola r and the other （ % ） 94.7 （ No planning ） （ Completion of the planning ）

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 T he Adjustment of China Energy Strategy  According to the energy structures and their energy costs, we analyzed the macro-economy influence by establishing the CGE of China energy and environment, and then investigated the acceptable energy structure. The macroeconomic impact of emission constraints in2020 Emission （ Million tons ） GDP(%) Employment (%) energy consumption per unit of GDP (%)

厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 Thank you!