Technology for a better society The Energy Challenge; Is sustainabilty within sight Dr. Nils A. Røkke Director Climate Change Technologies SINTEF CESAER, Trondheim15 October 2010 REC SWAY TCM

Technology for a better society SINTEF and NTNU - “Symbiosis at work” Number of employees: 2175 Annual turnover (2009): 340 Million € Main funding is from industrial contract research, 7% basic public funding A technological cluster with education, basic & applied research, innovations and business developments - covering of the society SINTEF - Scandinavia’s largest R&D Institute Founded 1950 by NTNU as a Foundation- non-profit

Technology for a better society 3 Centres of Environmental Friendly Energy (CEER) in SINTEF and NTNU BIGCCS – Int’ CCS R&D Centre CenBio NOWITECH The Norwegian CE for Solar Cell Technology An R&D effort of million 200€ over 8 yrs International co-operation Unique R&D infrastructure development Approx 110 Phd students and Post doc’s

Technology for a better society The energy challenge and the sustainabilty criterion The Brundtland report defined sustainable development as – " meet present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs “ Or even simpler (Gillman) – “do onto future generations as you would have them do onto you.“ For Energy this means: – Meeting the demand for energy at present and not hamper the possibility to do so for future generations taking care of Economy Society Environment

Technology for a better society How are we doing today viz sustainabilty Do we meet the present needs, and the future?, electricity case IEA WEO2009

Technology for a better society Sustainable energy mix?

Technology for a better society Sustainable energy mix? WEO 2008 NO! 15% 5% 80%

Technology for a better society Main unsustainability issues We do not meet the energy demands of today, there is a huge poverty issue The energy we use is based on unsustainable sources, clearly fossil fuels will run dry in the medium to long term The impact of energy conversion on the environment is unsustainable, short term remedies can be put in place but we are even changing our global framework - the atmosphere There is as such an urgent need to take actions to deliver the planet to the next generation “as we would have liked them to deliver it to us” Reuters

Technology for a better society 9 An uncomfortable curve! IEA WEO2009

Technology for a better society 10 International Energy Agency – suggesting a low carbon diet IEA ETP2010 Reduction needed to keep global warming with 2-3 degrees

Technology for a better society Let’s look at the bright side of life Can we at least recover some of the sustainability lost and mitigate? What does it take to move in this direction? No shortage of power Energy SourceMax Power (TW)% of Total Solar Total Surface solar Desert solar76509 Ocean thermal1000,12 Wind720,08 Geothermal440,05 River hydropower70,008 Biomass70,008 Open ocean wave70,008 Tidal wave40,003 Coastal wave30,003 Abbot, 2010

Technology for a better society A shift from fossil to environmental friendly energy needed Observations: Less demand in 2050 than 2007 for fossil fuels Fuel switching plays a role Presumes technology development ETP2010

Technology for a better society Power production, facilitating the electric society Observations: Mix dependent on strategic decisions nuclear? use of gas Main RES contributors Solar Wind Hydro ETP2010

Technology for a better society Power production, facilitating the electric society Observations: Massive deployment needed No silver bullet Rate today is minute ETP2010

Technology for a better society Technology Road Maps – Wind power Observations: 12% of GEP in 2050 Offshore wind power ties in around 2020 ETP2010

Technology for a better society Technology Road Maps – Cars Observations: Gradual feed in of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, FEV and H2 powered cars Transport difficult to transform, biofuels have little role, use for trucks and air transport ETP2010

Technology for a better society X

18 CO 2 Capture and Storage (CCS) ”Key Message: CCS is not just about cleaner coal: a number of sectors will need to develop CCS to achieve the BLUE Map scenario’s emission targets” IEA CCS Roadmap

Technology for a better society Technology Road Maps – SMART GRIDS Observations: Backbone for facilitating the electric society ETP2010

Technology for a better society Good news – it’s a profitable route! Observations: Efficiency gains means less energy costs Less demand for key energy carriers stabilises prices Hydrocarbons can be used for other purposes ETP2010 Investment is approx 35% of 2010 US budget spending for 40 years

Technology for a better society Sustainable- other benefits! Observations: Most actions include other benefits as well ETP2010

Technology for a better society There are positive movements though- we need to grow them

Technology for a better society Is sustainabilty within sight? We need to invest to get onto a more sustainable path, these are better investments than banksavings or bonds More advanced technologies are needed, we must invest much more into education, R&D and deployment support for energy technologies. Sustained use of fossil fuels is non-sustainable, any technologies relying on continued use of fossil fuels are bridging technologies They are however urgently needed as the transplantation of the spine in our energy system must be of a fast transformational rather than revolutionary nature. Energy is abundant on our planet- the long term sustainable solution is solar power albeit we may have an issue with that in Trondheim The question is if we will act fast enough to hand over the planet to next generations in a presentable condition, let’s work together!