Areas of vulnerability for the European energy supplies Michael M. Gonchar NOMOS / Strategy XXI Sliač/Sielnica JUNE 20th, 2013

New areas of hydrocarbons potential around Europe and new energy flows and routes for XXI century: Central Asian and Caspian Areas (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan)Central Asian and Caspian Areas (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan) Black Sea shelf (Ukraine, Romania, Turkey)Black Sea shelf (Ukraine, Romania, Turkey) Eastern Europe (unconventional gas fields in Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania)Eastern Europe (unconventional gas fields in Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania) Eastern Mediterranean (Turkey, Syria, Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon)Eastern Mediterranean (Turkey, Syria, Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon) Arctic area (Norway, Russia, Canada, Denmark (Greenland))Arctic area (Norway, Russia, Canada, Denmark (Greenland))

Energy and transit sensitive areas with potential of non-military and military tensions Arctic area; Eastern Europe; Black Sea; Central Asia; Caspian Sea; S. Caucasus; E. Mediterranean Sakhara&Sakhel

I nstability in Sakhel means crash strategic projects of energy supplies to EU EUMENA

Qatari gas for Europe (Doha vision): combined route Qatar – S. Arabia – Jordan – Syria gas pipeline (blue) + LNG tankers delivering instead long LNG tankers route around Arabian peninsula (red) SYRIA

Russian energy resources in official documents and statements: "Russia has significant reserves of energy resources and powerful fuel and energy complex that forms background for development of the economics and instruments of internal and foreign policies realization“ (Energy strategy of Russia till 2020, First Edition 2003)"Russia has significant reserves of energy resources and powerful fuel and energy complex that forms background for development of the economics and instruments of internal and foreign policies realization“ (Energy strategy of Russia till 2020, First Edition 2003) “Russian oil and gas policy should be not just an important part, but also one of the main instruments of country’s foreign policy”“Russian oil and gas policy should be not just an important part, but also one of the main instruments of country’s foreign policy” Special Presidential Envoy to Africa, Head of the Council of Federation Committee for Foreign Affairs Mikhail Margelov, November 18, 2011 г.

The scheme of future gas streams in accordance with Russian dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s hands NORD STREAM SOUTH STREAM YAMAL-EUROPE MAINSTREAM.UA TANAP+NABUCCO Hub Baumgarten

European dimension of Gazprom’s bypasses: Surplus of pipelines capacities from Russia is a challenge for stability of gas supply to Europe RouteCapacities, bcma Ukrainian mainstream 142 Belorussian direction 35 Blue Stream 16 North Stream + Finland 55+7 Nord Stream (III-IV) 55 Yamal – Europe - II 15 South Stream 63 Total: existing/future 255 / 388 Gazprom’s export to Europe –138 bcm in 2012 (<113 bcm physically). Contracted gas volumes (LTC) for ~158 bcma Surplus: 142 / 230 bcma

Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline: Blue Fuel, GazpromExport Magazine: «The construction of this pipeline would mean to spit in the face of Russia and the real risk may be that of a military conflict, in front of which Russia will not pull back“ Institute of CIS Countries (RF): "After what NATO did in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, there are no any restraining barriers... against Russia's use of force in the Caspian“ Russia plans to strengthen the Caspian Flotilla as well as with "Bastion" shore-based missile complexes, attack aircrafts. In 2013 it will be reinforced by 5 combat ships.

Future gas supplies to Lithuania and Ukraine are under risk of interruptions Possible interruptions According to order dated November 2012 Kaliningrad interconnector has to be built Yamal Europe - II According to order dated April 2013

Euro-Arctic hydrocarbon resources promised to be: 82 Mtoe from 140 Mtoe of all arctic resources GAS OIL After 2050 the hydrocarbon exploration in the Arctic could be no less important than the Persian Golf, North Africa, the North Sea and the West Siberia are today

Priorities of foreign and military policy of Russia (Decrees on 7 May 2012) Establishing of the Eurasian Economic Union by 2015 Strengthening of the Tashkent Pact (CSTO) Making the maritime borders of the continental shelf, including in the Arctic Strengthening the Navy in the Arctic and the Far East

Arctic borders is a box of Pandora Russian Arctic dreams

Arctic ambitious of Russia Institute for Political and Military Analysis of the RF: “Russia must begin the exploitation of the hydrocarbons on the shelf areas, which it consider to be its own” Increase of the icebreaker fleet (actual 6 nuclear + 2 diesel-electric) on 1 nuclear icebreaker until Formation of the Arctic Command and the group of forces with a strength of thousands people during The Arctic Forces: -Murmansk (Marine Corps Regiment), -Pechenga (Mechanized Infantry Brigade) -Severomorsk (2 brigades of combat ships)

Reinforcement of the Northern Fleet of the RF by two Mistral Advanced adaptation of equipment and special forces to the Arctic conditions Enhancement of reconnaissance in the Arctic region

SOME CONCLUSIONS More cooperation between NATO and EU concerning Security of Supply and Russian influences in the CEE Region is needed More NATO’s attention to C.Asia – Caspian Region - S.Caucasus – Black Sea chain is needed More attention to foreign activity of energy giants (Qatar, S.Arabia, Iran, Iraq etc.) and new big consumers (China, India) in Africa Arctic Forces Capacity Building development in the NATO framework

Thank you for your attention! NOMOS / Strategy XXI