Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Looking to Colorado’s Future Alexandra Hall, Director Labor Market Information

What we’ll cover today:  Basic Industry/Occupation Concepts  Current Economic Climate  Forecasting Process  Hot Industries  Hot Occupations

Colorado Employment and Recessions "A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months."

Industry Individual companies conducting similar business  Agriculture  Mining  Construction  Manufacturing

Industry Individual companies conducting similar business  Tourism  Hi-Tech  Bio-Tech

Occupation Work in which people engage to earn a living  Accountant  Secretary  Flight Attendant  Surgeon  Software Engineer  Network Analyst

Occupation Work in which people engage to earn a living  Customer Service Representative  Administrative Assistant

What is Labor Market Information?  Industry Employment & Wages  Occupation Employment & Wages  Demand for Workers – Current Demand – Future Demand

Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado through 2014

Employment Outlook to 2014 Projections Process  Labor force –Economic growth –Industry employment –Occupational employment

Population growth rates Annual rates of change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau projected National

The civilian labor force will grow by 1.0 percent annually through Annual rates of change projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Labor force participation rate by gender Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent, and projected 2014 Total Men Women projected National

Labor force participation of men and women age 55 and older, Men Women Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Women’s labor force growth outpaces men’s Percent change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics projected National

Women’s share of the labor force continues to edge up WomenMen Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent of labor force projected National

Labor force growth rates of minorities outpaces whites Percent change, through 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Workers by Race Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent of labor force National

Colorado

Percent Change

Employment Outlook: through 2014 Projections Process  Labor force  Economic growth –Industry employment –Occupational employment

A healthy economy is projected through 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Selected economic variables, Percents GDP (annual growth rate, projected through 2014) Unemployment rate, 2014 (assumed) Productivity (annual growth rate, projected through 2014) National

The 2014 projections assume a 3.1 percent real GDP growth rate Average annual rate of change projected National

Annualized growth rates of labor productivity during recessions Average annual rate of change, percents National

The 2014 projections assume a 5.0 percent unemployment rate National

 Labor force  Economic growth  Industry employment –Occupational employment Employment Outlook: Through 2014 Projections Process

Total employment is projected to increase by 13% or 18.9 million. Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 18.7 million or 14%. Millions of jobs projected Total employment Nonfarm wage and salary employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Total employment is projected to increase by or 664,360 (28.6%). Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 663,320. Millions of jobs Colorado

Service-providing industries continue to lead employment growth Goods-producingService-providing projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs National

Manufacturing, financial activities and professional and business services accounted for nearly half of total output in 2004 Billions of dollars Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Education and health services and professional and business services, along with state and local government, accounted for nearly 40 percent of employment in 2004 Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Education and health services and professional and business services account for half of projected total employment growth Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, through 2014 Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Three of the 10 fastest-growing detailed industries through 2014 are technical, three are health related. Home health care services Software publishers Management, scientific, and technical consulting services Residential care facilities Facilities support services Employment services Independent artists, writers, and performers Office administrative services Computer systems design & related services Outpatient, laboratory, & ambulatory care Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent change National

Of Colorado’s 10 fastest-growing industries through 2014, 2 are transportation related and 2 are construction related. Colorado

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs The 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected through 2014 Service Providing Goods Producing National

10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected through 2014 Colorado

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth  Detailed industries with: – employment growth greater than 13% – and average annual output growth rates greater than the overall average of 3%.  These industries accounted for: – 17% of employment in 2004 – and are projected to account for 38% of employment growth through 2014 National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth  If you include industries with: –faster than average employment growth –and average annual output growth of at least 2% per year:  These industries accounted for: – 25% of employment in 2004 – and are projected to account for 46% of employment growth through 2014 National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and/or output growth greater than 3% per year  Manufacturing –Transportation equipment mfg (95,300)* –Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg (76,000) –Motor vehicle parts mfg (43,200) –Aerospace product and parts mfg (36,400) –Navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments mfg (18,300) –Machine shops; turned product; and screw, nut, and bolt mfg (13,800) –Motor vehicle body and trailer mfg (13,000) –Medical equipment and supplies mfg (7,900) –Coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied mfg (7,500) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014 National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and/or output growth greater than 3% per year  Wholesale Trade/Retail Trade –Wholesale Trade (475,900)* –Retail Trade (1,648,700)  Transportation and warehousing –Warehousing and storage (138,100) –Truck Transportation (129,200) –Transit and ground passenger transportation (90,400) –Air Transportation (45,200) National * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 3% per year  Information –Publishing industries (205,000)* –Software publishers (161,000) –Internet and other information services (129,600)  Financial activities –Monetary authorities, credit intermediation (151,300) –Securities, commodity contracts (121,200) National * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and/or output growth greater than 3% per year  Professional, scientific and technical services –Administrative and support management and remediation services (2,461,800)* –Administrative and support services (2,374,100) –Employment services (1,579,900) –Management, scientific consulting (471,200) –Computer systems design (452,900) –Accounting and tax preparation (283,900) –Investigation and security services (169,600) –Other professional, scientific, and technical services (142,700) National * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and/or output growth greater than 3% per year  Education and health services –Ambulatory health care services (2,085,100)* –Offices of health practitioners (1,223,700) –Nursing care and residential mental health facilities (782,000) –Hospitals, private (688,300) –Home health care services (537,100) –Colleges and universities (503,000) –Outpatient and laboratory services (324,300) National * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and/or output growth greater than 3% per year  Leisure and hospitality –Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries (358,400)* –Accommodation (304,200) –Performing arts, spectator sports, and related industries (78,400) –Spectator sports (30,200) –Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions (22,900) National * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and/or output growth greater than 3% per year  Other services –Religious, grant making and giving services, and social advocacy organizations (381,300) * –Religious organizations (202,500) –Personal and laundry services (200,600) Automotive repair and maintenance (176,800) –Personal care services (109,200) –Grantmaking and giving services (55,700)  State and local government –Local government passenger transit (52,200) National * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

Colorado Employment Growth through 2014

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.2% per year Colorado  Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (91,930)*  Health Care & Social Assistance (76,170) –Ambulatory health care services (31,660) –Hospitals (22,410) –Nursing and residential care facilities (11,270) –Social assistance (10,830) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

Colorado  Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (8,870)* – Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution (770) Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.2% per year  Transportation & Warehousing (18,200) –Warehousing and storage (4,250) –Support activities for transportation (3,790) –Transit and ground passenger transport (2,190) –Scenic and sightseeing transportation (150) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

 Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services (68,590)*  Educational Services (64,410)  Accommodation and Food Services (63,340) –Food services and drinking places (53,630) –Accommodation (9,710) Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.2% per year * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

 Mining (5,880)* –Support activities for mining (4,190)  Construction (75,690) –Specialty trade contractors (52,830) –Construction of buildings (12,510) –Heavy and civil engineering construction (10,350) Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.2% per year * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

 Labor force  Economic growth  Industry employment  Occupational employment Employment Outlook: through 2014 Projections Process

There are 22 major occupation groups  Of these, 12 are projected to grow faster than average. Together, they: –Accounted for 35% of employment in 2004 –And are projected to account for 55% of employment change through 2014 National

Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (13%) Percent change, projected through 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Major occupational groups projected to grow slower than average (13%) Percent change, projected through 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

11 major occupations are projected to have a net employment increase of more than 14 million Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of jobs, projected through 2014 Percent change projected to be greater than average (13%) Percent change projected to be less than average National

Seven of the ten fastest growing detailed occupations are health related, three are computer related Percent change, projected through 2014 Home health aides Network systems and data communications analysts Physician assistants Computer software engineers, applications Physical therapist assistants Dental hygienists Computer software engineers, systems software Dental assistants Personal and home care aides 59 Medical assistants Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Top ten occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2004 average annual earnings General and operations managers Computer software engineers, systems software Biomedical engineers Physician assistants Environmental engineers Computer systems analysts Medical scientists Hydrologists Database administrators Computer software engineers, applications Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Top occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2004 average annual earnings Dental Hygienists Registered Nurses Forensic science technicians Paralegals and legal assistants Cardiovascular technologists Occupational therapist assistants Physical therapist assistants Veterinary technologists Diagnostic medical sonographers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Sales reps, wholesale and mfg, non technical and scientific Carpenters Hazardous materials removal workers Truck drivers, heavy & tractor-trailer Maintenance and repair workers Dental assistants Customer service representatives Medical assistants Executive secretaries and admin. assts. Top occupations generally requiring either long-term or moderate-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2004 average annual earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National

Computer and mathematical occupations will continue to grow at the highest rate Colorado

Job openings from replacement needs exceed those from employment growth for three occupational groups Thousands of jobs, projected through Colorado

Colorado’s highest expected job losses through 2014 Extruding/drawing machine setters Office machine operators Machine feeders & offbearers Parking lot attendants Cutting & press machine setters Photographic machine operators Information & record clerks Meter readers, Utilities Credit authorizers & clerks Computer operators Mail clerks, not postal service File Clerks Order Clerks Colorado

Expect an increase in the proportion of jobs requiring Bachelor's degrees or higher 983 thousand jobs 708 thousand jobs 1,992 thousand jobs 1,581 thousand jobs Colorado

About 32% of job growth will be from positions requiring a post-secondary education Colorado

Most job openings: Bachelor’s degree or higher through 2014 Colorado

Web sites Colorado Labor Market Information Occupational Outlook Handbook Career Guide to Industries Occupational Outlook Quarterly

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