Global New Energy Innovation Indexing And Some Issues In New Energy Advocacy November 21, 2008 Sarasota, FL, USA Prepared By: Joshua Landess Owner: First.

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Presentation transcript:

Global New Energy Innovation Indexing And Some Issues In New Energy Advocacy November 21, 2008 Sarasota, FL, USA Prepared By: Joshua Landess Owner: First Energy Research LLC Partner: WilderHill New Energy Finance Event Details: Annual Conference National Foundation For Women Legislators Energy, Natural Resources & Agriculture Policy Committee 21 November :30 PM Sarasota Ritz-Carlton

(Where We Are) Notes: Mtoe = 479 Exajoules = 479 * Joules US 2005 Supply & Consumption per IEA = 2340 Mtoe = about 20.5% of world.

Source: Global Wind Energy Council Some Perspective On Global Wind Installations

Denmark (if not Massachusetts)

Almeria, Spain 23.2 MW (8 th Largest Solar PV Plant In The World) 42 of the 50 Largest Solar PV installations are in Spain. One is in the US. (Nellis Air Force Base: 20 th Largest) According to: PVResources.com

Source: New Energy Finance, BloombergIndex Values as of 03 November 2008; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 30 Dec 2002 NEX vs. AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P

Joint Venture Partnership With New Energy Finance

Sources: New Energy Finance, First Energy Research LLC. Jobs Data From Thomson ONE Equity: Available For 79 of 87 companies. Not all of these jobs are in New Energy. Weightings distributions are based on a quarterly measurement of market capitalizations of 600+ quoted companies on major exchanges with sufficient activity in new energy to be included in the survey. WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index Ticker: NEX 87 Companies23 Exchanges 19 Countries15 Currencies 680,000+ Employees* Total Market Cap (November 7, 2008)**$174.6bn USD Average Market Cap (November 7, 2008)**$2.0bn USD Approximate P/E Ratio (September 24, 2008)**18.9**

Preserving A Record Of An Earlier Run-up

The Best (Or Even Very Good) Technology Does Not Always Win

NEX-58.9% Power Storage-12.8% Renewable - Other (Includes Geothermal, Low-Impact Hydro)-43.5% Energy Efficiency -53.7% Hydrogen & Fuel Cells-54.1% Renewable - Wind -62.9% Renewable - Biofuels & Biomass (includes Waste-To-Energy)-65.4% Renewable - Solar -67.1% 2008 Year-To-Date Sector Performance Data As Of November 3, 2008 WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index Source: New Energy Finance

NEX Top 2 Index Components In Each Sector By % Weight, Nov NAMESectorWEIGHTCOUNTRYCURRENCYTICKER Rockwool International A/S BEfficiency2.45%DenmarkDKKROCK-B EPISTAR Corp.Efficiency2.29%TaiwanTWD2448 FuelCell Energy Inc.Hydrogen And Fuel Cells0.90%United StatesUSDFCEL Plug Power Inc.Hydrogen And Fuel Cells0.57%United StatesUSDPLUG BYD Co. Ltd.Power Storage1.55%Hong KongHKD1211 Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd.Power Storage 0.93%JapanJPY6764 Covanta Holding Corp.Renewable - Bioenergy, WasteTo Energy1.59%United StatesUSDCVA Abengoa S.A.Renewable - Bioenergy, WasteTo Energy1.38%SpainEURABG Energy Development Corp.Renewable – Other (Hydro, Geothermal)1.62%PhilippinesPHPEDC BKW FMB Energie AGRenewable - Other (Hydro, Geothermal) 1.60%SwitzerlandCHFBKWN Evergreen Solar Inc.Renewable - Solar1.91%United States USDESLR First Solar Inc.Renewable - Solar1.79%United States USDFSLR EDP Renovaveis S/ARenewable - Wind2.71%PortugalEUREDPR EDF Energies Nouvelles S.A.Renewable - Wind2.47%France EUREEN Source: First Energy Research LLC

Plug-In Vehicles

Searching For What Is Already Found Sampling Of Some Vehicle High-Efficiency Numbers (Pump Or Grid To Wheel) VehicleTypeMiles Per Megajoule Miles Per kWh MPG (Gasoline), or Equivalent Data Source Notes Genuinely widely available to US consumers 2008 Vectrix (2- Wheeler, 62 mph) Plug-In (NiMH) *340 * Calculated From Manufacturer Battery and Range Data. Probably Optimistic Yes Electric Light Intra- city Rail [under “typical” passenger load] [Grid][1.67][6.01][200 passenger- mpg] *strickland.ca under “typical” passenger load. These numbers should be treated as very general estimates. [Yes] 2009 BMW Mini-EPlug-In (Lithium Ion) * * Manufacturer Claim, Probably Optimistic No 1997 EV1Plug-In (Panasonic Advanced Lead-Acid Version) * * Compiled From A Government Testing Report No 2009 TeslaPlug-In (Lithium Ion) * * Manufacturer Statement Of Government Estimate Yes (but expensive) Toyota RAV4 EV Plug-In (NiMH) * * fueleconomy.gov No 2005 Prius PHEV Effort Plug-In Hybrid (Gasoline/Lithium Ion) * ** 3 rd party Conservative Estimate Very Limited 2009 Honda Clarity FCX Hydrogen Fuel Cell * * Manufacturer Claim No 2002 Toyota RAV4 Gasoline 4 Cyl 2WD 5-Speed Internal Combustion * * fueleconomy.gov Yes Table: First Energy Research LLC. Approximations: 1 gallon gasoline = 113,500 BTU = kWh = MJ

Renewable Energy Harvesting + Millions Of Plug-In Vehicles = Symbiosis = Demand Destruction For Oil

All Of These Leading EVs “Decided” To Skip NiMH Batteries Photo Source: Vehicle Manufacturers, Wikipedia

Advanced Battery Investments Source: First Energy Research LLC, Thomson ONE Equity

This is what happened to GM’s 100+ MPGE EV1. It was never offered readily and widely for sale to consumers (or anyone else) … anywhere… ever.

(About 15 kWh Per Day, About 7.2 kWh From Solar)

Significant Progress