Earthquake Emergency Response LT Byron Lee LT K. Beth Jasper LT Greg Bauer

Problem Statement Analyze Monterey County’s transportation network in the event of a 7.9 magnitude earthquake or greater along the San Andreas fault, with emphasis on transporting displaced personnel to shelters – What are the optimal routes to get people to shelters in the event of numerous road closures? – How many road closures need to exist before it isn’t possible to get people to shelters?

Monterey County Fault Lines

Mathematically Modeling the Real World Measures of Effectiveness for our network: – 11,500 people anticipated to need shelter receive it. – Those that are denied shelter, are still provided relief services Framework behind our model: – In the event of an earthquake, is there sufficient redundancy in the main road network to accomplish the evacuation plan set out by Bay Area Urban Area Security (BAUAS) Initiative? – Based on the data available, can we answer specific questions concerning the performance of the BAUAS plan: Do those in need receive the care as planned? What major roads are critical to the successful completion of the plan?

Operator’s Problem Decisions the Operator makes when operating in the network – Interdictions (i.e. road outages) were based on data provided by the United States Geological Society (USGS) e.g. Shake maps and liquefaction data – As an operator on the network, which path would be optimal (i.e. shortest path) from the evacuation pick-up sites to a shelter that has availability; with and without various levels of interdiction

Start Service Shelter No Service Generalized Shelter Node in the vicinity of EVAC sites End Service Shelter No Service Generalized Shelter Node more distant from EVAC sites -n n Where: d ij = distance on arc cij = penalty for no service f ij = penalty for service w/ no shelter Uij = upper capacity of shelter (Service / Sheltering) C ij > f ij EVAC 2 EVAC 3 EVAC 4 EVAC 5 EVAC 1 EVAC 6 EVAC 7

Operators Resilience Curve

Open Analysis Directions Look at secondary quakes that could be triggered by a large earthquake on the San Andreas Expand the model to include Handicapped accessibility facilities and bathrooms at facilities Add precision to the model to use it to direct remote sensing collections Adding fuel constraints to the min-cost model (min-cost constrained)

Summary Conclusions The bridges that had the highest probability of being damaged did not prevent the flow of personnel to shelters, however the cost did go up in terms of distance The combined damage to buildings and bridges increased the cost in distance traveled and people not sheltered Monterey County has ample shelter facilities to provide servicing and housing under this scenario

Min Cost Network Flow Data: