2011 Saskatchewan Mining Industry Hiring Requirements and Talent Availability Forecasts May 31, 2011

About MiHR Who we are: National Sector Council for the Minerals and Metals Industry 18-person Board of Directors 100+ Industry Leaders volunteer on our project committees Public Private Partnership – Funded by HRSDC and industry What we do: Identify national HR challenges and opportunities for the minerals and metals industry Create national solutions through collaboration, partnerships and synergy

MiHR Priorities Attraction, Retention and Transition (ART) Skills, Learning and Mobility (SLM) Research for Industry Sustainability (RIS) Industry Catalyst and Leader (ICL)

MiHR Products Mining Industry Workforce Information Network (MIWIN) o LMI Reports (National & Provincial) o Mineral Exploration Sector Study Highly Qualified People Study Counter-Cyclical Workforce Planning Research for Industry Sustainability (RIS)

Saskatchewan Mining Industry Hiring Requirements and Talent Availability Forecasts

Overview of the Report Represents an update from the 2008 report MiHR prepared in partnership with the SMA Includes:  An introduction and economic overview  A look at mining labour market trends  A forecast of hiring requirements  A forecast of talent availability  A gap analysis of talent needs and availability  An overview of potential methods to close the talent gap

Economic Overview With well developed agriculture, oil and gas, and mining industries, Saskatchewan is well positioned to meet the world’s needs Global recession prompted a 3.9 per cent decline in GDP, but growth returned in 2010 and 2011 Rebalancing of the global economy continues and in the short term minerals and metals prices are expected to increase; however over the long term, prices are expected to moderate

Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends Aging workforce, average retirement age in Saskatchewan mining is 62 (compared with 59.5 in other regions) Survey of stakeholders indicates 12 per cent eligible to retire Decisions to retire are complex; not all eligible will retire at one time Saskatchewan mining industry underperforms other sectors in employing women (14 per cent) and new Canadians (2.3 per cent) Saskatchewan mining industry is a leading employer of First Nations and Métis peoples (11.5 per cent of mining workforce; with majority employed at northern mine sites)

Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends

Hiring Requirements Forecasts

Hiring Requirements Forecast Methodology MiHR hiring requirements forecast model for the Saskatchewan mining industry provides projections for three scenarios—baseline, contractionary, expansionary Model inputs include:  Labour productivity  A Saskatchewan-specific minerals price index  Non-retirement separation rates  Retirement rates

Saskatchewan Mineral Price Index and Employment

Cumulative Hiring Requirements Forecast By Scenario

Cumulative Hiring Requirements Forecast By Scenario , 2016, 2021

Cumulative Hiring Requirements Forecasts By Scenario—2011 to 2021

Hiring Requirements Forecast by Occupational Category: Baseline Scenario—2021

Available Talent Forecasts

Available Talent Forecast Methodology The talent availability forecast in the report is the first time MiHR has completed a labour supply forecast for the Canadian mining industry. The forecast is a stock and flow model that adjusts the labour force each year by starting with the existing labour force, adding new entrants and then subtracting the number of people who leave the workforce. The main sources of new entrants include:  school leavers (high school, PSE)  net international migration  net interprovincial migration  and “others”, such as people changing occupations and those re-entering the workforce after a temporary absence.

Cumulative Available Talent Forecast 66 Occupations – 2013, 2016, 2021

Cumulative Available Talent Forecast by Occupation: 66 Occupations – to 2021

The Talent Gap

The Talent Gap and Challenge: Baseline Scenario, 66 Occupations

Addressing the Gaps The nature of the gaps differ among occupations, thus a multi-faceted approach is needed to address gaps In some cases, the industry must aim to attract more people from an existing pool of talent (e.g., work with SMA to present a unified front to promote careers in mining; adapt MiHR’s Explore for More brand for Saskatchewan). In other cases, the industry must aim to grow the size of a talent pool that is otherwise too small to meet its needs (e.g., through partnerships and support for education and training and immigration). In all cases, the industry must strive to make the best possible use of the talent already involved with the industry (e.g., retaining mature workers and re-engaging the retired workforce).

Ross Prusakowski, Research Analyst, LMI Martha Roberts, Director of Research Pamela Schwann, Executive Director, SMA