The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the 21st Century Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate National Research Council 1998 A Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services 3 December 2001 A Summary of

Tropical and Polar Air Currents Robert Fitzroy, The Weather, 1863 NOAA Library

Earliest Signal Service weather map on record in NOAA Library September 1, 1872

Re-analysis, Tor Bergeron, 1933

ENIAC Electronic Numerical Integrator and Calculator First numerical weather forecast--March hours Quasi-geostgrophic barotropic vorticity equation

ASCI White Pacific EDSAC 1 UNIVAC 1 IBM 7090 CDC 6600 IBM 360/195 CDC 7600 Cray 1 Cray X-MP Cray 2 TMC CM-2 TMC CM-5 Cray T3D ASCI Red KFlop/s 1 MFlop/s 1 GFlop/s 1 TFlop/s 1 PFlop/s Scalar Super Scalar Vector Parallel Super Scalar/Vector/Parallel Moore’s Law Jack Dongarra Univ. of Tennesee 10^3 10^6 10^9 PC Transistors

Atmospheric Observations Global Data Coverage 2001 Surface 8998 Obs Radiosonde 1197 Aircraft Tiros Sounder12829 Sat Winds 6270 SSMI UTC 11/29/01

Observations + Equations + Computers Produce Forecasts

Contemporary Realities, Key Ideas  Observations, analysis, and models are inseparably linked and must be improved together  Observational and information technologies present new challenges and opportunities  Atmospheric information services are becoming more distributed  Scientific opportunities exceed resources; choices must be made  Leadership and coordination are necessary for the atmospheric sciences to contribute to national goals

The BASC 21st Century Vision Improvements in atmospheric observations and scientific understanding will combine with advances in technology to enhance atmospheric analysis and prediction. Society will enjoy greater confidence in atmospheric information and will manage weather and climate risk more decisively and with greater sophistication. Advances in information technology will foster broader and more effective use of atmospheric services.

Acquiring the information

Imperatives for Atmospheric Science Imperative 1. Optimize and integrate global observation capabilities Imperative 2. Develop new observation capabilities

Optimize Observations... Develop a specific plan for optimizing and integrating global observations and models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land. Monitor weather, climate, and air quality, and obtain the information needed to improve the predictive numerical models used for weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and near-Earth space activities. Examine proposed configurations with rigorous observing system simulation experiments.

Optimize Observations (cont)  Commercial aircraft observations  Global positioning system (GPS)  Adaptive strategies  Integration with modeling efforts  Increases in computer power  Assimilation of new forms of data (radiance, EOS)  Multiple uses of data bases  International collaboration New observing opportunities Issues and requirements

Develop New Observation Capabilities Commit to a strategy, priorities, and a program to develop new capabilities for observing critical variables such as water in all its phases, wind, aerosols and key chemical constituents, and near-Earth space phenomena all on temporal and spatial scales relevant to forecasts and applications

Broaden our Capabilities  Improve understanding of atmospheric interactions with other components of the Earth System and enhance understanding of interactions between atmospheric phenomena of different scales (USWRP and USGCP).  Apply the discipline of forecasting (predict, verify, learn from errors) with experimental forecasts in atmospheric chemistry, climate, and space weather.

Weather and Climate Forecasts Risk and Financial Models Decisions and Actions Atmospheric Observations and Information

Distributing and using atmospheric information

GOVERNMENT Warnings Forecasts Observations PUBLIC & PRIVATE WX & CX INFORMATION USERS UNIVERSITY, FEDERAL, PRIVATE RESEARCH New Capabilities WX INFORMATION FIRMS Specialized analyses and forecasts COMMUNICATIONS Media Networks The Atmospheric Sciences and Services Partnership The Atmospheric Science and Services Partnership

Leadership and Management  Develop a strategic viewpoint to maximize the benefits of an increasingly distributed national and global structure for providing atmospheric information.  Maintain the free and open exchange of weather observations between nations.  Enhance the flows of information between the partners in atmospheric science and services and to the public.

The Classical Forecast - Decision System NWS Computer Forecasts Human Forecaster Decision Maker Atmospheric Variables Forecast and Advice Select Action NWSPrivate Sector The New Era Forecast - Decision System Private Numerical Analysis Integration With Risk Models Decision Maker Confirm Action Decision Process 4-D Impact Variables and Decision Aids NW S Private Sector NWS Computer Forecasts 4-D Atmospheric Variables

Forecast skill and potential risk Days Forecast Skill Potential Risk Risk or Cost Skill

JAD 15 October Days Forecasts Climatology Basis for Weather Risk Strategies and Actions Weighting (percent)

Terabit NetworkObservationsNWS Research Users, Partners A TerascaleWorld Teraflop Computers

Some laws of information…  Information is not conserved--it multiplies.  We can all use the same information without wearing it out.  Some of us convert information into more valuable forms, some do not.  A lot of ‘information’ is wrong, some of it thanks to computer routines.  Information flows both downhill and uphill.  Information frustrates almost all attempts at confinement, and yet fills all available hard discs.  Trying to stop the flow of information is like trying to stop the tide.

The challenge...  integrate and optimize observations and modeling  work together in an increasingly distributed atmospheric information system  acquire the resources for scientific advance  and then drive to results and improved service To achieve the vision of significantly improved atmospheric information and services, we must

Petabit NetworkObservationsNWS Research Users, Partners A PetascaleWorld Teraflop Computers