Changing Climates in North American Politics: Institutions, Policymaking and Multilevel Governance Henrik Selin, Department of International Relations, Boston University and the Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, Linköping University Henrik Selin, Department of International Relations, Boston University and the Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, Linköping University& Stacy D. VanDeveer, Department of Political Science, University of New Hampshire and the Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, Linköping University The Institute for European Environmental Policy and the The Institute for European Environmental Policy and the Institute for European Studies at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel May 25, 2009

North American Federal Systems All three North American countries have a federal structure giving policy making and regulatory authority to sub-national entities All three North American countries have a federal structure giving policy making and regulatory authority to sub-national entities Many federal divisions of authority on climate change policy making remain unsettled in Canada, the United States and Mexico Many federal divisions of authority on climate change policy making remain unsettled in Canada, the United States and Mexico Climate change policy initiatives are discussed and developed in a multitude of states, provinces, municipalities and firms Climate change policy initiatives are discussed and developed in a multitude of states, provinces, municipalities and firms

Four Research Questions 1. What are the new or emerging institutions, policies, and practices in the area of climate change governance under development in North America? 1. What are the new or emerging institutions, policies, and practices in the area of climate change governance under development in North America? 2. What roles do major public, private, and civil society actors play, and how do they interact to shape policy and governance? 2. What roles do major public, private, and civil society actors play, and how do they interact to shape policy and governance? 3. Through which pathways are climate change policies and initiatives diffused across jurisdictions in North America? 3. Through which pathways are climate change policies and initiatives diffused across jurisdictions in North America? 4. To what extent can North American climate change action be characterized as existing or emerging multilevel governance, and are local and federal institutions across the continent facilitating or impeding this process of change? 4. To what extent can North American climate change action be characterized as existing or emerging multilevel governance, and are local and federal institutions across the continent facilitating or impeding this process of change?

Q #1. Emerging Institutions, Policies and Practices National governments and policy makers in Canada, the United States and Mexico are engaged in building limited domestic and transnational institutions for GHG mitigation and climate change research Much of the most significant North American institutional innovation in the post-Kyoto decade has taken place below federal organizations It is necessary to look to states, provinces and municipalities to find the most ambitious policy developments in North America

Sets of Policy Choices Regulating emission sources, energy production and goods Regulating emission sources, energy production and goods Enacting taxes on emissions, different kinds of energy and goods Enacting taxes on emissions, different kinds of energy and goods Creating new markets and market based instruments including cap and trade schemes Creating new markets and market based instruments including cap and trade schemes Using subsidies to support research and development, renewable energy generation and the purchase of greener products Using subsidies to support research and development, renewable energy generation and the purchase of greener products

Q #2. Roles of Public, Private and Civil Society Actors Networked collaboration between a growing number of private- and public-sector actors significantly influences policy developments Much climate change action is driven by networked actors as new institutions help to form and maintain new and expanded networks Social interaction serves to identify and shape interests and preferences of actors across public, private, and civil society sectors

Networks and Organizations There are a host of important local, regional, national and continental networks There are a host of important local, regional, national and continental networks Networks use old and new organizations to facilitate interaction, including: Networks use old and new organizations to facilitate interaction, including: NEG-ECP NEG-ECP ICLEI ICLEI U.S. Conference of Mayors U.S. Conference of Mayors Federation of Canadian Municipalities Federation of Canadian Municipalities The Climate Registry The Climate Registry

Expansions of Regional Efforts Six New England states and five Eastern Canadian provinces Six New England states and five Eastern Canadian provinces RGGI covering ten states from Maryland to Maine RGGI covering ten states from Maryland to Maine Western Climate Initiative (also including Canadian provinces) Western Climate Initiative (also including Canadian provinces) Mid-West GHG Reduction Accord Mid-West GHG Reduction Accord

Q #3. Pathways of Policy Change Climate change networks influence policy developments at various levels of authority through four pathways of policy change: (1) Strategic demonstration of action feasibility (2) Market creation and expansion (3) Policy diffusion and learning (4) Norm creation and promulgation

Importance of Bottom-Up Pressure Networked actors exercise influence within and across different levels of political authority Local level policy making is likely to have an impact on future federal policy RGGI setting important precedents for GHG emissions trading RGGI setting important precedents for GHG emissions trading California developing a portfolio of policy responses, including for energy and vehicles California developing a portfolio of policy responses, including for energy and vehicles

Q #4. Status of Multilevel Governance Multilevel climate change governance is developing in North America Policy making efforts at multiple governance levels are becoming more ambitious in terms of scope and mitigation goals Four possible scenarios for developing multilevel governance based on high/low combination of federal and sub-national policy making

Complex Multilevel Coordination The fourth scenario – complex multilevel coordination – is most likely Federal governments set mandatory policy floors of minimum regulations and standards, allowing actors and jurisdictions to exceed federal policies in some areas Sub-national policy making continues apace among leaders who exceed federal requirements Continental climate change governance is characterized by debates about appropriate levels of policymaking and implementation

II. Policy Options, Broadly Property Rights/Market Creation (Cap & Trade) Property Rights/Market Creation (Cap & Trade) Regulation (product standards, emissions, building/construction, land-use, transportation, etc.) Regulation (product standards, emissions, building/construction, land-use, transportation, etc.) Taxes (emissions, energy, consumption, particular products or practices, etc.) Taxes (emissions, energy, consumption, particular products or practices, etc.) Subsidies (R & D, renewable energy, greener purchasing, mass transport, etc.) Subsidies (R & D, renewable energy, greener purchasing, mass transport, etc.)

II. Policy Goals, Broadly Reduce Emissions Reduce Emissions Increase Energy Efficiency Increase Energy Efficiency Push Technology Push Technology Energy Security Energy Security Environmental & Human Health Protection Environmental & Human Health Protection Economic Growth, Job Creation, etc. Economic Growth, Job Creation, etc.

Different Frames in Different States and for Different Political Actors Rationales for state action Rationales for state action GHG reductions GHG reductions Environmental co-benefits Environmental co-benefits Job creation/investment driver Job creation/investment driver Domestic/secure energy Domestic/secure energy Energy diversification Energy diversification Combinations of strategic and moral logics Combinations of strategic and moral logics

Renewable Portfolio Standards

Regional Climate Initiatives

The Climate Registry Participants

What Difference Could one Small Region Make?  If the New England/ Eastern CA Region was classified as a country, it would be the 12 th largest emitter of GHG in the world.  + NY, NJ and DE = 8th th largest emitter worldwide  + CA breaks into the top 5, globally…  MA state-wide emissions are only 2% of the US emissions but still are comparable to the total emissions of whole countries (i.e. Portugal, Egypt, Austria, or Greece).

REGIONAL RESPONSE #2: Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) Initiated with leadership of NY Gov. Pataki to Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Governors. Initiated with leadership of NY Gov. Pataki to Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Governors. Signed by 7 Governors on December 20, 2005 Signed by 7 Governors on December 20, states “in” plus addition of Maryland and 2 states (MA, RI) “observing” 7 states “in” plus addition of Maryland and 2 states (MA, RI) “observing” States committed to links (CA) States committed to links (CA) Other states encouraged to join and program is designed to be expandable Other states encouraged to join and program is designed to be expandable

Purpose: power sector GHG “Cap-and-Trade” system Environment and energy officials from each state Not a voluntary program – by regulation in each state Reduce CO2 with flexible, market-based program for least cost reductions Build on successful NOx and SOx programs Create a model for a federal program Maintain electricity affordability, reliability and fuel diversity Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)

Cover sources 25 Megawatts+ Two-Phase Cap—stabilization through 2015; 10% reduction by Start Date of Built-in Review of Program in Allocations: 25% for state to use for consumer benefit Allocation 75% of the allocations left to each state to decide RGGI Package

RGGI – 2009 Status Auctions held quarterly (late 08 & 09) Auctions held quarterly (late 08 & 09) Prices in the $ range ($2-4, Dec 2010 contracts) – too low to influence much investment Prices in the $ range ($2-4, Dec 2010 contracts) – too low to influence much investment NY Gov Paterson commitment in question NY Gov Paterson commitment in question Early fears of over allocation multiplying Early fears of over allocation multiplying Current GHG emission est.: Current GHG emission est.: 9% below ’07; 17% below cap 9% below ’07; 17% below cap Waxman/Markey -- RGGI credits/allowance will be nationally tradable Waxman/Markey -- RGGI credits/allowance will be nationally tradable

US Federal – Status May 2009 New Auto CAFE standards New Auto CAFE standards National RPS still in discussion/debate National RPS still in discussion/debate Waxman/Markey (US House) out of Ctte Waxman/Markey (US House) out of Ctte Economy wide & power sector Economy wide & power sector Power sector Cap & trade – (only) 15% auction Power sector Cap & trade – (only) 15% auction -3 % (of 2005) by % (of 2005) by % by 2020 (slightly less than 1990 levels) -17% by 2020 (slightly less than 1990 levels) -42% by 2030 (25-30% less than 1990) -42% by 2030 (25-30% less than 1990) -83% by 2050 w/interim goals (80% from 1990) -83% by 2050 w/interim goals (80% from 1990) A host of complimentary measures (beyond cap & trade) A host of complimentary measures (beyond cap & trade)

WRI’s Emission Reduction Comparison Estimates

Fed Challenges/Concerns Little auctioning means little revenue Little auctioning means little revenue For domestic budgets (healthcare) or For domestic budgets (healthcare) or international Copenhagen commitments international Copenhagen commitments US Senate (the bill may get less ambitious) US Senate (the bill may get less ambitious) Copenhagen negotiating constraints & opportunities Copenhagen negotiating constraints & opportunities Coordinating multilevel climate governance Coordinating multilevel climate governance US, North American, Transatlantic & Global US, North American, Transatlantic & Global

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