Phil Rees, University of Leeds Presentation at the ESPON UK Network Workshop, Targeting Analysis on Migration and Economy , 13 May 2009 MWB Business Exchange 10 Greycoat Place, London SW1 P 1SB

The DEMIFER project team NIDI (co-ordinator) (Netherlands) Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der Erf, Peter Ekamper UNVIE (Austria) Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer IOM/CEFMR (Poland) Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska Nordregio (Sweden) Daniel Rauhut, Joanna Roto, Susan Brocket University of Leeds (United Kingdom) Phil Rees, John Stillwell, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett NEAA (Netherlands) Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer CNR (Italy) Frank Heins

Aims of the project 1. to determine how distinctive are current trends in migration, fertility, and mortality and how they affect differences across regions in population growth, the size of the working age population and the ageing of the population. 2. to forecast how future developments in migration, fertility and mortality will affect population growth and changes in the age structure in different types of regions. 3. to analyse the extent to which the labour force in different types of regions will change due to increases in natural growth, internal migration, international migration and participation rates. 4. to evaluate which policy options could achieve increases in natural growth, migration and labour force participation. 5. to review the extent to which the effects of internal migration, migration between European countries and migration to Europe compensate or reinforce each other. 6. to assess the future effects of climate change on migration flows within, between and into countries and regions.

Tasks Assembly of a database Analysis of demographic regimes A summary typology Three migration streams (internal, inter-state, extra-Europe) Analysis of labour force participation and employment rates Analysis of the older population Projection of populations using a multiregional projection model Reference scenarios Policy scenarios Assessment of impact of policy scenarios on regional competitiveness and regional cohesion Case studies of processes in selected regions

Demographic typology TypeNameRegionsDemographic profile 1Young Potentials16Young age structure, positive natural increase, positive net migration 2Euro Standard85Slightly older than average age structure, small natural decrease, positive net migration 3Family Potentials55Slightly younger than average age structure, high natural increase & growth 4Challenge of Decline31Negative natural increase and net migration, depopulation, ageing 5Transitions59Varied components, slight population decline 6Euromediterranean31Older populations, natural decrease but with greater net migration 7Specials (Outliers)7High share in young working ages; low share in 65+

Projection model: migration structures

MULTIPOLES projection model modules Scenarios input indicators for fertility, mortality, internal migration, inter-country migration, extra- European immigration, extra-European emigration Population projection engine for 31 countries and ~280 NUTS2 regions Age groups extended to 100+ Projected population by age and sex multiplied by labour force participation rates Labour force multiplied by employment rates Employed multiplied by productivity indicators

Reference scenarios Population base ~ 2005 with demographic rates/flows for period around 2005, e.g Three reference scenarios: 1. Status quo projection 2. No migration projection (natural increase only) 3. Free movement within Europe but no extra- Europe migration

Policy Scenarios

Policy scenarios linked to component trends and policies

Policy scenarios: ideas about levels and distributions

Next steps Full details of the topics covered in this presentation and future plans are given in the DEMIFER Interim Report The Interim Report will be made available after scrutiny by the ESPON 2013 Monitoring Committee on the web site: rogramme/1455/2233/2236/2241/index_EN.html rogramme/1455/2233/2236/2241/index_EN.html