Alberto Alfonzo & Tugberk Tanrisevdir Economic Development and International Politics INAF 100.

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Presentation transcript:

Alberto Alfonzo & Tugberk Tanrisevdir Economic Development and International Politics INAF 100

 What factors affect the odds of winning the African Cup of Nations?  How do these factors affect?

We expect:  Host Nations to be more probable to win the Tournament,  GDP Per Capita (Constant US$ 2005) to have a positive effect on the chances of winning,  Urban Population Percentage to have a positive impact on winning the Cup. On the other hand, the Total Population to have a negative effect.

Independent VariablesDependent Variables GDP Per Capita (Constant 2005 US$) Chance of winning ACN Home Advantage Total Population Urban Population Percentage

 We studied these factors on every country that reached the Semifinals and Finals of the CAN, from 1962 to  We created a new variable “Points per Tournament” to control for in which position countries finished in the tournament.  We ran regressions in order to find significant relationships between our independent and dependent variables.

Home Advantage  11 countries which hosted the ACN won the title out of 29 tournaments.

GDP Per Capita (Constant 2005 US$)  For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 5 out of 7 times: countries with higher GDP Per Capita won.

20001)Cameroon2) Nigeria3) South AfricaResult GDPPC 868, , , YES/NO 20021)Cameroon2) Senegal3) NigeriaResult GDPPC 895, , , YES 20061)Egypt2) Ivory Coast3) NigeriaResult GDPPC 868, , , NO 20041)Tunisia2) Morocco3) NigeriaResult GDPPC 868, , , NO

20081)Egypt2) Cameroon3) GhanaResult GDPPC 1456, , , YES 20101)Egypt2) Ghana3) NigeriaResult GDPPC 1550, , , YES/NO 20121)Zambia2) Ivory Coast3) MaliResult GDPPC 798, , , NO

Urban Population Percentage  For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 3 out of 7 times: countries with higher Urban Population Percentage won.  Egypt, whose Urban Population Percentage was lower than its opponents', won 3 times.

Total Population  For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 4 out of 7 times: countries with more Total Population won.  Egypt, whose Total Population was higher than its opponents', won 3 times.

 Home Advantage does not have a positive effect as we expected.  GDP Per Capita does have a positive impact on the chances of winning the CAN, as we expected.  As for Total Population and Urban Population Percentage, the results are erratic. Therefore we cannot reach a conclusion yet.