Nigeria

Key Institutions 45 years of independence –16 year of it ruled by citizens Current rule 1999 –Rest under military rule Under 6 different Generals Brutal and greedy Unstable –Tendencies to fall apart –Military waiting in the wings to take over

The U.S. Model Progressively increases states –12-36 states –Redraw map lines: ease ethnic issues –When violent occurs Create a new state Worked? There is less violence now

The U.S. Model 1991: –Military dictator Ibrahim Babangida –Moved capital from Lagos to Abuja Move to open the interior Designated Federal Capital Territory Costly and inefficient

The U.S. Model British set them up under the Wesminster model –Includes a prime minister –One party winning maj. Of seats in Commons –Fragmented: easily get a vote of no confidence 1979 constitution: looks more like U.S. –President can govern with or without support –Term limit: 2-four year terms Olusegun Obasanjo –1 st president of Fourth Republic Election day

Branches of Government The Executive –Most powerful political force The Legislature –Tend to serve at the will of leader The Judicial –Tend to serve at the will of the leader

The Executive President is elected by popular vote –Head of state, government, and commander in chief –Four years terms (serve only two terms) –Perform Ceremonial duties of leadership Overseeing the day to day administration of the government Coordinates and overseeing the country’s armed forces Appoints government ministers (must come from all 36 states) –Federal Executive Committee (president and ministers) Enact laws –Not allowed to serve in the National Assembly Vice President –Assist president –Nominated by the presidential candidate

The National Assembly Bicameral National Assembly –Senate: 109 seats Each 36 states = 3 representatives One for the Federal Capital Territory –House of Representatives 360 seats 10 for each state Represent single member districts –Both elected for four years terms at the same time Pass laws Either house can originate legislation –Must be passed by both house –Assented by the president

The National Assembly Appeasement of smaller ethnic groups Equal seats in both houses Like U.S. having two senates Danger is hyperfederalism: –A system that tries to hard to represent ethnic groups. –May lead to a country falling apart

Judiciary Responsible for interpretation of the laws in accordance with the constitution Supreme Court –Highest court of the land Court of Appeal and Federal High Courts

First parties were ethnically based –Did not reach out beyond ethnic group Caused Ethnicizing and regionalizing the national process Nigeria’s Parties

2003 elections were flawed –Registration favored parties –Missing ballots –Stuffed boxes –Intimidation –See page 297 in your book

“Two-party Plus” system PDP (Peoples Democratic Party) –Centrist party –Personalistic vehicle of President Obasanjo –Well-organized and funded –Nationwide party –Draws votes from all ethnic groups (including Muslims) –Most Northern Muslims do not support (vote for relgionalist and Islamist parties) Nigeria’s Parties

ANPP (All Nigeria Peoples Party) –Strongest following Mulsim North –Supported the dictatorship of Sani Abacha AD (Alliance for Democracy) –Yoruba party –Southwest; Other parties

State Government Governor is elected by popular vote –Serve one four year term Unicameral State House of Assembly –Popular elected representatives from local govt. areas. –Members = 3 times the number in House of representatives 774 local governments Deal with local administrative matters –Construction and maintenance of public roads

Military Looms over like an intimidating shadow Operate on behalf of sectarian interest in legislative process Discipline organization –Capacity to make decision National in character –People of all regions – ethnic groups –religious predilections –Representative of the people –Use to assume and keep power Cleavages do exist and influence military officers in and out of power

Elections Embraced by the victors; contested by the losers Military officers –Bypassed elections –Choose to rely on guns and violence Mashood Abiola

1999 and 2003 –Olesugen Abasanjo: wins 60% of votes –ANNP: Muhamad Buhari received 32% in 2003 –Five other parties –Only one received 3 percent of the votes; rest received less than 1 percent –Both contested legitimacy of elections –Abasanjo: led since 2003 and terms will end in 2007 Elections

Constitutions Post World-War II colonial period –Series of constitutions –Offered self-rule and regional autonomy –Served to guide the content and to form and independent Nigeria –Suspended and rendered obsolete under military rule Promised transitions back to civilian rule Est. new ways to write the constitutions

Bureaucracy Source of employment for large number of people After independence –Replaced the British and Indians who dominated –Exacerbating north/south tensions

Problems: –Proliferation of states= grew rapidly –Oil revenue –Political instability –Lack of accountability –All leads to corruption –Hard to reverse!!! Bureaucracy

1 st Republic Adopted Westminster model Northerners dominated government –Due to census in Turned into Northern only group –Northern People’s Congress (NPC) –Set out to redistribute resources –Political Policy “Northernization” Conflict with south Yoruba AG (Yoruba Action Group) Igbo NCNC (National Convention of Nigerian Citizens formerly Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons) Internal Western crisis = NPC seized opportunity to sub-divide the Western region –Diluted Yoruba power

Violence escalated in the West –NPC engaged in extensive corruption Fraudulent census Falsified ballots in general elections Widespread violence Intimidation of supporters and candidates Victory in 1965 Absolute majority in parliament 1st Republic

Approaching the Military –Nnamdi Asikiwe, NCNC leader and president –Tafawa Balewa, NPC prime minister –Both asked for support if violence broke out –Inadvertently gave military political power

Civil War and Military Rule: Group of largely Igbo officers seize control –January 1966 –Aguiyi Ironsi, head of state )highest ranking officer Aim was to end violence in Western region Stop political corruption Stop abuses of northern dominated government Replaced federation with unitary state –Second coup Killed General Ironsi; Yakubu Gowon, Middle Belt Christian

Civil War and Military Rule: Igbo were persecuted in the north Ethnic violence sent Igbo’s fleeing 1967: –Igbo tried to secede to form own independent nation: Biafra –Believed that north lock other regions out of power –General Gowon built a military led govt. in rest of Nigeria

Civil War and Military Rule: Three-year war –Starvation tactics –Attrition –Defeated Biafra by January 1970 Heavy toll on Nigeria’s populace –Million deaths

Post-war –Gowon presides over policy of national reconciliation –Growing oil revenues –Break/dilute three major ethnic groups Broke down in 12 states (19 states) Increased the armed services from 10,000 to nearly 250,000 in 1970 Corruption was widespread (oil boom) Gowon opts not to return to civilian rule Gowon was overthrown in 1975 by Murtala Muhammad Civil War and Military Rule:

Murtala Muhammad –Committed to transition program –1976 he was assassinated General Olusegun Obasanjo –2 nd in command –Peacefully ceded power to elected civilian government in 1979 –Retired but later returned in 1999

Second and Third Republics –President Shehu Shagari National Party of Nigeria (NPN) Did little to reduce the mistrust between parts of the federation; stop corruption –Regional and ethnic polarization continued –Economy deteriorated rapidly –Four year Fractional infighting Weak leadership Declining public services Chronic economic mismanagement Steady parade of corruption scandals Growing political violence increased

Second and Third Republics : –NPN captures majority in state and national elections Fraud Violence –A few month later Major General Muhammadu Buhari seized power

Second and Third Republics General Buhari –Refused to pledge rapid return to democratic rule –Failed to revive the economy –Popular support wavered August 1985 General Ibrahim Babangida

Second and Third Republics Ibrahim Babangida –Announced program transition to democratic rule –Stalling tactics were used to extend tenure in office –Annulled the presidential election in 1993 SHOULD HAVE preceded full withdrawal of military 1993 election –Claimed as fair –Despite military influence and limitation –Yoruba businessman Chief Moshood Abiola won

Second and Third Republics Annulment provoke angry reactions from people –Postponed transitions –Lingering military rule –Deception of rulers Ibrahim Babangida –Under pressures to resign –Hand picks successor: Ernest Shonekan

Second and Third Republics General Sani Abacha –Defense minister –Seizes power in 1993 –Prolonged military dominance –Combines repression/public promises to restore constitutional democracy –Announced transition to civilian rule Delayed steps Cracked down on political opposition Constricted civil liberties and political rights Corruption at its best –Sudden Death in June 1998 Saved the country?

Second and Third Republics General Abdulsalami Abubakar –Successor –Est. new transition program –Promptly handed over to an elected civilian government President Olusegun Obasanjo –People’s Democratic Party (PDP) –May 1999

The Fourth Republic 1999 to present Obasanjo –Called out of retirement –Yoruba’s felt they had been cheated over the years –Many did not trust Yoruba leader –Handed over power to military head of state in 1979 –North: candidate they could trust –Ex-military leader could better manage the thorny task of keeping armed forces in the “barracks”

Obasanjo: –Unpopular among his own people Irregularities at the poles Reform the State and economy Retired all military officers who held political positions –Economy Oil sector targeted for new management Lobby others to forgive Nigeria’s debt Increased minimum wage “truth and reconciliation” commission Civil Society groups thrived The Fourth Republic 1999 to present

Media: –Exposed corruption –Forced Speaker of the House and two Senators to resign –Proliferation of Newspapers, radio, and televisions stations –Radio still main source of information –All 36 states have their own radio stations –Over 100 privately owned newspapers The Fourth Republic 1999 to present

Obasanjo: –Political debts –1 st cabinet corrupt politicians Brought down previous republics –Newcomers lined their pockets with public funds –Anticorruption???? Needed support for re-election Agenda??? –Faced National Assembly and impeachment The Fourth Republic 1999 to present

2003 elections –Re-elected Obasanjo Political accommodations Election rigging Overall the election was questioned Secured the PDP’s dominance Legitimacy?? –Acceptable in Nigerian politics The Fourth Republic 1999 to present

Obasanjo Administration 1 st six months –Reform the armed forces –Revitalize the economy –Address public welfare –Improve standards of governance Praised for clean management and contracting policies Clientelism and financial kickbacks for oil licenses resurfaced Proposed and anti-corruption commission –Powers to investigate –Prosecute public officials –Had little impact –“political tool” of the presidency –2 nd one founded in 2003: The economic and Financial Crimes commission (EFCC)

Peace and Reconciliation Commission (1999) –Did not have the power to grant amnesty –Ensured testimony would be accurate –Reported findings to President who did not make the document public Obasanjo Administration

PDP –Supported Obasanjo in 1999 –He filled his cabinet with these “political kingpins” –2003: “fixers” delivered him victory again Accomplished through fraud –Allegations of corruption at the highest level surfaced Obasanjo Administration

Niger Delta –Proposed Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) Disburse the 13 percent of oil revenues constitutionally mandated to return to the delta states –States took Obasanjo to court Youth militias harassed police, stole oil, kidnapped workers for ransom –Nov. 1999: Attacked killed several policemen Military units destroyed the village of Odi = massacre –NDDC was slow to take shape and had little affect –Ethnic groups grew bolder and more restive –Violence in the region has shut down nearly 40% of the country’s oil exports Obasanjo Administration

Legitimacy –Problems in Niger Delta –Plateau State Governor elections Christians and Muslims –Demonstrate deficits of legitimacy for the government as well as democracy –Patronage, coercion, and personal interest will drive politics Obasanjo Administration

Democracy 2000 poll: 81% of the people support Division of tribe and religions –Might have achieved stable democracy –Fails under tribal and religious animosities, corruption, and military power grabs Intercivilizational disunity: –Two civilizations rarely living in peace

Political Economy

Dependent on Oil Reserves Predominately agriculture –Represent a small faction of the total earnings

Political Economy Positioned to be an economic leader 1950’s self sufficient with food Developed transportation infrastructure Produced and exported agricultural products –Palm oil –Cocoa

1970’s oil price surged –Oil exports grew quickly –Rapid increase in government revenue $400 million in 1965 to $26 billion in 1980 Invested large sums of money in large scale industrial development Paid little attention to agriculture Paid little attention to other sectors Did not invest in improving public services –Water, electricity, telephones, transportation systems, education and health care –Corruption emerges Political Economy

Oil prices drop –Inflation grew –Surpluses became deficits –Owed money to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund

1985 Babangida implement measures recommended by the IMF –Privatization of government held-firms –Reductions in government subsidies on basic goods and services –Reduction in size of government bureaucracies Social cost was unbearable Result = slowed economic reform Abacha ended this process Balance of long-tern economic logic and immediate social needs Political Economy

Oil sector provides –20% of GDP –95% of foreign exchange earnings –65% of budget revenues High population and inattention to agricultural –Import food to meet local needs $1 billion has been promised by the IMP –Contingent upon economic reforms Political Economy

External debt= $30 billion 60% of the people live below the poverty line $900 per capita

Selected EarthTrends Data: VariableValue Gini Index{1} 44 Population living on less than $1/day{2} 71% Population living on less than $2/day{3} 92% Poverty Gap $1/day{4} 35% Poverty Gap $2/day{5} 60% Access to improved sanitation 44% Access to an improved water source 48% Literacy rate, all adults n/a Life expectancy, both sexes 44 years Definitions and Sources {1} Survey year: Based on expenditure. {2} Survey year: Based on expenditure. {3} Survey year: Based on expenditure. {4} Survey year: Based on expenditure. {5} Survey year: Based on expenditure.

Obasanjo has worked with others to create New Partnership from African Development (NEPAD) NEPAD goal –To promote development –Encourage good governance –Ending civil war –Promoting foreign investment –Liberalizing trade –Increasing foreign aid from advanced industrialized countries Political Economy

Reforms Economic and Political –Need to reduce corruption –Govt. needs the revenue lost to corruption Increase foreign direct investment Progress needs to be made despite the uncompromising measures –60% below or at the line of poverty Priority for the government Quality health care and education –Needs to nurture its growing middle class

Oil and Democracy Correlation between petroleum and non- democratic governments Norway is one of the few democratic oil producing countries –Russia, Mexico, Nigeria, Iran: all non- democratic (or recently were) –Russia attempted democ. But is back to authoritarianism

What causes oil to work against democracy? –Produces vast wealth but its concentrated Government hands Seldom benefits the whole society –Becomes the great prize of politics –Control the oil = control the power –Oil industry employs few –Wealth is squandered by corruption –Overlarge bureaucracies, showcase projects, rewards for supporters of the regime Oil and Democracy

What causes oil to work against democracy? –Oil allows rulers to avoid investing Infrastructure Industry Long term growth mechanisms –Oil will run out: consequences Elites will use their secret bank accounts Poor will remain poor and become more poor Oil and Democracy

Majority of the people live in Poverty International debt $30billion Niger Delta came online in 1970 –OPEC assigns quotas for each member Keeps quotas down/prices up One of the easiest countries to bribe officials to produce above Nigeria’s quotas Oil and Democracy

Oil is Nigeria’s biggest political problems Oil is produced by: –Foreign firms –Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Receives most of the revenues Corrupt (similar to Pemex) –Nationalizing oil production Leads to more concentrated wealth Encourages more corruption Only work if it is total: companies buy the oil fields –“What? Sell Nigeria’s sacred patrimony to greedy foreign capitalist? NEVER!!!” Oil and Democracy

Possibilities –Nigerian International board of supervisors Power of oversight and audit Take oil deals out of the hands of the government Put money into an internationally supervised bank –Make loans for infrastructure –Education –Expanding valid enterprises –Micro-loans: encouraging small businesses Oil and Democracy

Oil could give Nigeria a growing economy that would use but NOT depend on petroleum