Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 16 August 2006

Norges Bank 2 GDP growth among trading partners (1) Seasonally adjusted volume growth on previous quarter. Per cent Q1 – 2006 Q2 Sources: EcoWin / National statistical offices and Norges Bank US Euro area Japan

Norges Bank 3 GDP growth among trading partners (2) Seasonally adjusted volume growth on previous quarter. Per cent Q1 – 2006 Q2 Sources: EcoWin / National statistical offices and Norges Bank UK Sweden 18 Trading partners

Norges Bank 4 Equities and metals Indices. 1 January 2006 = 100. Daily figures. 1 January – 14 August 2006 Aluminium Nickel EquitiesMetals Norway Euro area US Japan Sources: STOXX, S&P500, Nikkei, Oslo Stock Exchange, FTSE and EcoWin Zinc Copper

Norges Bank 5 CPI/HICP 12-month change. January 1997 – July 2006 Source: EcoWin / National statistics US Euro area Japan UK

Norges Bank 6 CPI/HICP core 12-month change. January 1997 – July 2006 Source: EcoWin / National statistics UK 1) US 2) Euro area 1) Japan 3) 1) HICP excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco 2) CPI excl. food and energy 3) CPI excl. fresh food

Norges Bank 7 Actual and expected key rates as per IR 2/06 and 14 August 2006 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area14 August 2006 IR 2/06 (28 June) Sweden UK Norway

Norges Bank 8 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices Daily figures. USD per barrel. 1 January 2002 – 14 August August 2006 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 22 June IR 2/06

Norges Bank 9 Oil production in Iraq, Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela Million barrels per day. Monthly figures. January 2001– July 2006 Source: International Energy Agency Iraq (right-hand scale) Venezuela (right-hand scale) Nigeria (right-hand scale) Russia (left-hand scale)

Norges Bank 10 Electricity price NOK/MWh. Nord Pool January 2002 – July Futures prices Q3 – 2008 Q4 Sources: Nord Pool and Norges Bank 15 August June 2006

Norges Bank 11 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2009 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank I-44 (left-hand scale) Weighted interest rate differential (right-hand scale) 28 June 06 (IR 2/06) 14 August 06 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone.

Norges Bank 12 Different indicators of inflation 12-month rise. Per cent. January 2002 – July 2006 Source: Statistics Norway Weighted median CPI-ATE 1) 20 per cent trimmed mean CPI 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006.

Norges Bank 13 CPI-ATE 1) Total and by supplier sector 2). Actual inflation and projections from IR 2/ month rise. Per cent. July July 2006 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7) Imported consumer goods (0.3) CPI-ATE 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January ) Norges Bank's calculations.

Norges Bank 14 Unemployed In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. January 2001 – July 2006 LFS unemployment 1) Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway and the new Labour and Welfare Service (NAV) 1) The restructuring of the LFS has resulted in a break in the time series between 2005 and 2006

Norges Bank 15 Credit growth Total credit, mainland Norway and enterprises (C3). Domestic credit to households (C2). 12-month change. Per cent Source: Norges Bank Households Total enterprise sector credit Total credit

Norges Bank 16 Housing market January 2001 – July 2006 Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms (EFF), ECON and Finn.no House prices (NEF) (12-month rise. Per cent) Housing starts (number of 1000s in the last 12 months)

Norges Bank 17 Business tendency survey Indicator of resource shortages. Smoothed. Per cent Q1 – 2006 Q2 Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 18 Sight deposit rate in the baseline scenario and market expectations concerning the sight deposit rate 1) Per cent Q3 – 2009 Q4 1) Derived from estimated forward rates. A credit risk premium and a technical difference of 0.20 percentage point were deducted in calculating the sight deposit rate. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 1 – 14 Aug 06 Source: Norges Bank Market expectations concerning the sight deposit rate Market 14 August 2006 Baseline scenario IR 2/06 Market IR 2/06

Norges Bank 19 Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario with fan chart Per cent Q1 – 2009 Q4 30%50%70%90% Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank 20 Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 2/06 The Executive Board's assessment is that the sight deposit rate should be in the interval 2¾ - 3¾ per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 1 November 2006, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with projections. The interest rate may gradually – in small, not too frequent steps – be brought back towards a more normal level.