THE OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND GAS Presentation To OKLAHOMA INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM ASSOCIATION June 11, 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

THE OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND GAS Presentation To OKLAHOMA INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM ASSOCIATION June 11, 2007

TOTAL OTHER LOWER 48 CRUDE OIL FIGURE 1 UNITED STATES PRODUCTION Million Barrels Per Day ALASKA CONDENSATE GULF OF MEXICO SLOPE AREAS NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS Actual Forecast

WORLD OIL PRODUCTION Million Barrels Per Day FIGURE 2 Texas Saudi Arabia Other OPEC 16.0 Other Non-OPEC Eastern Europe Total OPEC 31.2 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 100% Allowables In Texas Natural Gas Liquids Condensate Crude Oil Iraq – Iran WarEmbargo of Iraq Occupation Of Iraq Middle East War U.S. Import Program Middle East War Middle East War Suez Crisis OPEC Formed Viet Nam War Actual Forecast

NON-OPEC CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION Million Barrels Per Day Forecast Actual Middle East Asia Mexico China Latin America Canada U.S. Lower 48 Africa FIGURE 3 Western Europe U.S. Lower 48 Eastern Europe

FIGURE 4 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION IN MEXICO Million Barrels Per Day Total Crude Total Offshore Cantarell Reforma Area 2.10 Chicontepec Actual Forecast

Million Barrels Per Day WORLD OIL PRODUCTION Other Non-OPEC Crude Oil Eastern Europe Crude Oil OPEC Crude Oil NGL ** Other * * alcohols, coal liquefaction, and gas to liquids ** condensate, natural gasoline, butanes, propane, and ethane Angola joined OPEC FIGURE 5 Actual Forecast

FIGURE 6 WORLD PETROLEUM DELIVERIES Million Barrels Per Day Rest of World United States Japan, Canada, Australia & New Zealand Western Europe China Includes crude oil, other liquids and processing gain

UNITED STATES GASOLINE MARKET Per Gallon $3.06 Retail $2.31 Cost + 51¢ per gallon subsidy $1.80 Total Cost $1.60 Feedstock (2.5 gallons per bushel) $3.06 Retail $2.30 retail (from crude) $1.55 Domestic refinery or imports B A Case ACase B DEMAND Crude Oil: $60 per barrel Corn: $4 per bushel SUPPLY Mandated Ethanol Volume Gallons FIGURE 7

Actual Forecast OIL DELIVERIES IN CHINA Thousand Barrels Per Day Gasoline Residual Fuels Distillate Direct Crude FIGURE 8

FIGURE 9 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS AND ELECTRICITY GDP Trillion 2005$ Population Millions Actual Forecast (Normal Weather) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Population $5.68 $ Electricity Gas Trillion kwh Trillion Tcf

Tcf Per Year Tight Coalbed Associated Offshore Gas Bubble Onshore Lower 48 Conventional (Non-Associated) Price Controls Section 29 Tax Credits Alaska Actual Forecast Prorationing In Texas FERC Order Deliverability FIGURE 10 UNITED STATES NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

FIGURE 11 WORLD LNG Billion Cubic Feet Per Day ProductionConsumption ProductionConsumption Indonesia16% Algeria13% Malaysia15% Qatar15% Australia8% Nigeria6% Brunei5% U.A.E. 4% Oman5% Trinidad7% Egypt4% Western Europe 25% South Korea15% Taiwan5% U.S. 9% Japan42% India 3% U.S. Western Europe 20% South Korea12% Taiwan5% U.S.16% Japan21% India 6% Mexico6% China7% Indonesia 8% Algeria 8% Malaysia 6% Qatar19% Australia13% Nigeria14% Brunei2% U.A.E.2% Oman3% Trinidad4% Egypt5% Russia2% Iran8% Yemen2% Peru1% E. Guinea2%

Bcf/d Residential & Commercial Boiler Fuel & Other Fuel Use Act UNITED STATES NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION Billion Cubic Feet Per Day FIGURE 12 Actual Forecast

THE OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND GAS Presentation To OKLAHOMA INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM ASSOCIATION June 11, 2007