1 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK African Economic Outlook 2006 African Economic Outlook 2006 African Development Bank / OECD Development Centre Prof. Louka T. Katseli, Director, OECD Development Centre Hellenic-African Chamber of Commerce & Development and ADGI-INERPOST Athens, 1 December 2006

2 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? African Performance: A two Speed Africa? 2 Promoting Transport Infrastructure 3

3 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK What is the AEO Project? Joint Publication of the AfDB and the OECD Development Centre, supported by the EC – 5 th edition released on May 16. Joint Publication of the AfDB and the OECD Development Centre, supported by the EC – 5 th edition released on May 16. Independent, comprehensive and comparative analysis of 30 African countries, combining economic, social and political review and short-term macroeconomic forecasts. Independent, comprehensive and comparative analysis of 30 African countries, combining economic, social and political review and short-term macroeconomic forecasts. An input for African policy makers, incl. NEPAD APRM, aid practitioners and investors. An input for African policy makers, incl. NEPAD APRM, aid practitioners and investors. Analysis of individual countries, comparative synthesis review and focus on a major theme each year – promoting and financing transport Infrastructure in 2006 issue. Analysis of individual countries, comparative synthesis review and focus on a major theme each year – promoting and financing transport Infrastructure in 2006 issue. Improvements in successive editions (More intensive peer-review process, Improved modelling and data harmonisation, Broader Coverage…) Improvements in successive editions (More intensive peer-review process, Improved modelling and data harmonisation, Broader Coverage…)

4 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Coverage 2006: 30 African countries 90% of GDP 87% of population

5 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? African Performance: A two Speed Africa? 2 Promoting Transport Infrastructure 3

6 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Africa’s growth remains robust Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006, IMF, OECD Total OECD AFRICA %

7 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Oil producing countries are leading growth Source: African Economic Outlook 2006 Performance of oil producers (%)

8 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Oil importers performed better than expected Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006 Best Performers in 2005 (%)

9 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Thanks to rising commodity prices and increased production Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006

10 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Thanks to good harvest … and better internal policies Lower inflation Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006 (%)

11 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Fiscal discipline is maintained

12 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK … and increased political stability Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006 Political Indicators

13 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Despite recent improvements, major development challenges remain…

14 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Africa is still behind in reaching the MDGs Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006

15 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Africa is divided…

16 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK For oil & metal producers: Taking advantage of windfalls revenue is a major priority Different ways of using the oil surplus Increasing saving (Nigeria) Investing in diversification (Algeria) Repaying external debt in (Congo, Gabon) Oil-sector transparency and good management Many countries commit to international standards for transparency (Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Gabon, Congo and Sao Tome) Congo publishes its oil contracts, audit of the national oil company and other information on the Web

17 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK For most non oil and metal exporters: major challenge to manage aid effectively Source: OECD/DAC Statistics (2006). DAC Members’ ODA: and simulations to 2006 and 2010, based on Monterrey and subsequent commitments % of GNI ODA (2004 $ billion) ODA as a % of GNI (left scale) Total ODA (right scale) Total ODA to Africa (right scale)

18 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK … driven by debt relief and emergency assistance Total net official development assistance (ODA), non-aid official flows and private flows in Africa, (Source: OECD/DAC)

19 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK For all African countries: need to sustain resource mobilisation for development Strengthen national development strategies and associated operational frameworks Promote investment to diversify and strategically position the economy Improve infrastructure Responsively restructure of public expenditures Reform the tax system

20 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK …diversify exports further and… Source: Export Diversification Index, African Economic Outlook 2006 The higher the index, the more diversified the economy Uganda Ethiopia Africa Tanzania Kenya Tunisia Morocco Algeria Cote d'Ivoire Mozambique Cameroon Senegal Madagascar SACU

21 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Improve mobility Reduce prices Improve mobility Free time Women benefit the most Better supply of food, water & medicines Faster hospitalisation Better supplies & staff Better use of networks Project selection …promote transport infrastructure

22 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? African Performance: A two Speed Africa? 2 Promoting Transport Infrastructure 3

23 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK A continent of stranded mobility? Source: Pourtier (2003)

24 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Transport / insurance costs as % of trade value SSA Least Developed Landlocked SSA Landlocked SSA Coastal countries All land locked Developing All Developing Countries OECD Countries IMPORT EXPORT Source: Faye, McArthur, Sachs and Snow (2004) and UNCTAD (2003)

25 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Critical condition of all transport modes Road –Only 19% is paved (against 27% in lat Am & 43% in South Asia) –4% of registered vehicles, 10% of total deaths –Accidents cost 3% of GDP every year in Egypt Rail –3.5% of developing countries passenger flows, but 20% of GDP & population Air –<2% of developing countries passenger and freight flows –Few airports with international standard –4.5% of traffic, 25% of accidents Ports –Most ports are under equipped and have reached maximum capacity –Inefficient: ZAF (17 c.u/h), Dar es Salam (21) ≠ Brazil (42)

26 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Source: OECD/DAC Creditor reporting System (commitments) data aggregated by sectors : Shift in ODA to social sectors

27 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Money is not enough Strong regulation –Strong commitment / negotiation skills –Autonomous regulatory body (ex. Zambia) Better planning (ex. Master Plan for Greater Cairo) –Selection of projects (between the different transport means, trade-off between developing rural road networks and investing in corridors serving established higher density routes) –Integration in poverty reduction strategy & medium-term expenditure framework Community participation –Maximising employment generation and easing maintenance –Involving women Regional cooperation –Benefiting from economies of scale –Partnering with NEPAD & regional unions

28 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Last but not least…

29 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK African countries need to… Maintain social safety nets during economic restructuring Formalise the informal sector Promote local development, employment and service delivery Forge a coherent growth and social-policy agenda and…

30 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Provide effective leadership and governance focal points Build wide-scale ownership of a continuous reform process Strengthen feasible regional initiatives Provide institutional empowerment and policy leadership

31 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Thank you for your attention! Contact: