The Human Population

Concepts we will discuss Factors affecting human population size. Human population problems Managing population growth

More concepts we will discuss How populations are measured and what information those statistics reveal Population growth theory Relationship between carrying capacity and population growth

Even more concepts we will discuss Arguments associated with the Great Population Debate. How demographic statistics provide information about a nation’s quality of life. Population growth and quality of life comparisons between more- and less-developed countries.

What is a population? Individuals of a single species that simultaneously occupy the same general area, having a high likelihood of interaction.

Characteristics of Populations Population Density: Number of individuals per unit area.

Characteristics of Populations Population Dispersion: Pattern of spacing among individuals. Population Growth Exponential (no limit to what environment can support) Logistic (environment has a specific carrying capacity)

Population Growth Growth Rates Crude birth rate Crude death rate Zero population growth

Population Growth Doubling Times Rule of 70 Least Developed Countries have the shortest doubling times.

The Rule of 70

The Great Population Debate The Great Population Debate Points of View There is No Population Problem Cornucopian: People are the world’s ultimate resource. Marxists: Poverty is the result of distribution problems, not overpopulation.

The Great Population Debate The Great Population Debate Points of View There is a Problem Malthusians: Population growth, which is exponential, is limited by growth in the food supply, which is arithmetic. Neo-Malthusians: In addition to food, other factors (such as shortages of water and space) impose limits on continued growth. Zero Population Growth: A halt in population growth is needed

“The ‘Population Problem’ is a Complex Issue” Problems are the result of unequal distribution of resources and high growth rates. Over-consumption by slow-growth countries is also problematic.

Factors Affecting Human Population Size Population change equation P final = P initial + (B - D) + (I – E) or Population Change = (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)

Factors Affecting Human Population Size Crude birth rate (CBR) (CBR): number of live births per 1,000 people Crude death rate (CDR) (CDR): number of deaths per 1,000 people

World Population

Population Growth

Population (billions) 12 11 High High 10.6 10 Medium Low 9 Medium 8.9 8 Population (billions) 7 6 Low 7.2 5 4 3 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

Carrying Capacity as Applied to Human Populations No standard carrying capacity equation for humans Humans are classified geopolitically, classifications which are ecologically meaningless. Humans can raise carrying capacity of environment through technology.

Carrying Capacity as Applied to Human Populations Quality of life (standard of living) separates the calculation of carrying capacity between humans and nonhumans. Cultural carrying capacity When standards of living drop dramatically, people may become environmental refugees.

What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates? Fertility General fertility rate—number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age per year (ages 15-49) Age-specific fertility rate—number of live births per 1,000 women of a specific age group per year

What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates? Total fertility rate—average number of children a woman will bear throughout her life, based on the current age-specific fertility rate and assuming the current birth rate will remain constant throughout her life Replacement fertility rate—fertility rate needed to ensure that each set of parents is “replaced” by their offspring.

9 Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates Children in Labor Force Cost of raising and educating children Availability of pension systems Urbanization Education and employment for women Infant mortality rate Average marrying age Abortion Availability of birth control

Factors Affecting Death Rates Infant mortality rate (IMR)—number of infants under one year of age who die per 1,000 births each year Childhood mortality rate (CMR)—number of children between one and five years of age who die per 1,000 births each year

Infant and Childhood Mortality IMR is best single indicator of a society’s quality of life.

Infant and Childhood Mortality Factors that contribute to high IMR and CMR include diarrhea (often caused by disease-infested water), improper weaning, famine, malnutrition, poor health of mother, and inadequate prenatal care.

Examples of age structure interaction Click to view animation.

Population Age Structure Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Male Female Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden

Age Distribution Graphically represented by population profile Developing Countries have pyramidal-shaped profile; Developed Countries have more rectangular or columnar profile.

Age Distribution Important indicator of future growth rates Population momentum—occurs when large numbers of young people are present are in the population, ensuring continued growth even after fertility rates drop

Age Distribution Determines a nation’s dependency load—the proportion of the population below 15 or above 65 years of age Migration Actual rate of increase

Influencing Population Size Migration Environmental refugees Reducing births Family planning Empowerment of women Economic rewards and penalties

Number of legal immigrants (thousands) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1907 1,400 1914 New laws restrict immigration 1,200 Number of legal immigrants (thousands) 1,000 800 600 Great Depression 400 200 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 Year

The Demographic Transition Low High Relative population size (number per 1,000 per year) Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transindustrial Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial growth rate Increasing Growth Very high Decreasing Zero Negative Birth rate Total population Death rate Time Fig. 10-20 p. 189

Demographic transition model interaction. Click to view animation.

How does population growth affect economic development? Every one percent increase in population needs a three percent increase in GNP. High growth rates of LDCs have overwhelmed governments.

What Do Demographic Statistics Tell About Quality of Life? Population Density Urbanization Life Expectancy (at birth)

Cutting Global Population Growth Family planning Improve health care Elevate the status of women Increase education Involve men in parenting Reduce poverty Sustainability

If Women’s Status is Low: Motherhood Only Option Birth Rates Rise

A women’s status is determined by: Access to Education Access to Adequate Health Care Legal Rights Maternal mortality ratio Employment Opportunities Outside Home Wage Earnings Marriage Age Number of Children

Births per thousand population U.S. Birth Rates: 1910-2004 32 30 28 26 Births per thousand population 24 22 20 18 End of World War II 16 Demographic transition 14 Depression Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 2010

World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8 Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8 Developing countries (w/o China) 27 9 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Africa 38 14 Latin America 22 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 6 Asia 20 7 Oceania 18 7 United States 14 8 North America 14 8 Europe 10 12

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning China © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 1.3 billion 1.4 billion India 1.1 billion 1.4 billion USA 294 million 349 million Indonesia 219 million 308 million Brazil 179 million 211 million Pakistan 159 million 229 million Russia 144 million 137 million Bangladesh 141 million 205 million Japan 128 million 121 million Nigeria 137 million 206 million 2004 2025

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning World 5 children per woman 2.8 Developed countries 2.5 1.6 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Developing countries 6.5 3.1 Africa 6.6 5.1 Latin America 5.9 2.6 Asia 5.9 2.6 Oceania 3.8 2.1 North America 3.5 2.0 Europe 2.6 1.4 1950 2004

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Births per woman 2.1 2.0 1.5 Baby boom (1946-64) Replacement level 1.0 0.5 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

47 years Life expectancy 77 years Married women working outside the home 8% 81% 15% High school graduates 83% 10% Homes with flush toilets 98% 2% Homes with electricity 99% 10% Living in suburbs 52% 1900 $3 Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) 2000 $15 1.2 Homicides per 100,000 people 5.8

Population in millions 600 571 500 400 Population in millions 292 300 Total population 200 76 100 Projections 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning United States Mexico Canada © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 294 million Population (2004) 106 million 32 million Projected population (2025) 349 million 150million 36 million Infant mortality rate 6.7 25 5.2 77 years Life expectancy 75 years 79 years 2.0 Total fertility rate (TFR) 2.8 1.7 21% % population under age 15 35% 18% 12% % population over age 65 5% 13% $36,110 Per capita GDP PPP $8,790 $31,892

China: Slowing Population Growth Economic incentives Free medical care Preferential treatment Locally administered Very intrusive and coercive

India: Slowing Population Growth Generally disappointing results: Poor planning Bureaucratic inefficiency Low status of women Extreme poverty Lack of support

India China Percentage of world 17% population 20% Population 1.1 billion 1.3 billion Population (2025) (estimated) 1.4 billion 1.4 billion Illiteracy (%of adults) 47% 17% Population under age 15(%) 36% 22% Population growth rate (%) 1.7% 0.6% Total fertility rate 3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) Infant mortality rate 64 32 Life expectancy 62 years 71 years GDP PPP per capita $2,650 $4,520