The starting conditions are different Growth trajectory to 2000

Rough Ride in 1980s-90s Only 5 of the 25 odd years did GDP growth outpace population growth Manufacturing’s share of GDP declined and growth of industrial activity collapsed from 8% on average to 1% MVA as share of GDP (15% 70s/80s to 12 in the 90s) and so employment Agricultural productivity declined and hunger deepened Income inequality increased. Debt service paid as a % of GDP rose from 5% in the 70s to 15% in the 1990s The absolute number of people living in abject poverty increased. Child and maternal mortality worsened and life expectancy reversed in many countries

Biggest problem Policy space conditionality (average 120) for 2 decades Technical assistance (30% of disbursed aid) Increasing aid dependency – Deteriorating current account – Stagnating growth – Stagnating rvenues – Illicit capital flight

Life Expectancy at birthChild Mortality(per 1000LB)Adult Literacy rates Botswana Cameroon Congo R Gabon Ghana Kenya Nigeria Niger Zambia Table1. Selected Social well-being indicators

There is a turn around – so an opportunity Growth is on the up, but largely driven by natural resource prices and increased output of minerals Fewer wars Chinese, Indian and Brazilian capital, now Turkish Reduced debt burden Easing of fiscal space – IMF Easing of policy space – China Real estate

THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED e.g GDP Per Capita, 200+