Western Cape Government Agriculture THE WESTERN CAPE AND AFRICA IN NUMBERS: AN AGRIBUSINESS OPPORTUNITY PERSPECTIVE Dr Dirk Troskie Director: Business.

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Presentation transcript:

Western Cape Government Agriculture THE WESTERN CAPE AND AFRICA IN NUMBERS: AN AGRIBUSINESS OPPORTUNITY PERSPECTIVE Dr Dirk Troskie Director: Business Planning & Strategy 14 June 2012

Reality check: World Reality check: Africa Some features of Africa Ranking What others say Conclusion

REALITY CHECK: WORLD

GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH: Source: UN Population (2008)

GDP: $ Billion at PPP Source: OECD (2010) RANKING COUNTRYGDP ($ Bill.)COUNTRYGDP ($ Bill.) 1United States5 943United States (1) Japan2 485China (6) Germany1 588Japan (2) France1 051India (9) Italy1 049Germany (3) China1 029Russian Fed. (-) UK954UK Brazil818France (4) India763Brazil (8) Mexico608Italy (5) Spain550Mexico (10) Canada549Spain (11) Korea415Korea Turkey337Canada (12) Indonesia306Turkey (14)992 16Australia305Indonesia (15)910 17Netherlands280Australia (16)831 18Poland219Netherlands (17)675 19South Africa204Poland (18)659 20Belgium196South Africa (19)494

PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH: % at PPP Source: OECD (2010) RANKING COUNTRY% CHANGECOUNTRY% CHANGE 1China2 278China176 2Korea907Estonia136 3India598Slovak Republic113 4Ireland569India103 5Luxembourg552Norway97 6Norway514Indonesia77 7Indonesia447Korea76 8Turkey384Hungary75 9Spain363Luxembourg73 10Portugal348Poland73 11UK325Czech Rep.72 12Netherlands316Turkey71 13Finland297Greece70 14United States288Slovenia68 15OECD total288Chile65 16Japan283South Africa62 17Australia 1 280Ireland60 18Denmark269Spain59 19Germany262Mexico57 20Austria259Brazil South Africa161

WORLD TRADE Source: ITC (2012)

EXPORT GROWTH: Wine ( ) Source: SAWIS (2011)

PROVINCIAL STRATEGIC OBJECITVE 11 Increasing opportunities for growth and development in rural areas Agricultural production Develop and implement a strategy that will support 10% agricultural growth over 10 years. Market access Support the Agricultural Sector to at least maintain its export position for the next 5 years by growing its value added from R14,014 billion in Research and Technology Collaborate with farmers and industries to execute research and to develop cutting edge technologies where agricultural production can increase by 10% over 10 years. Rural development Create an enabling environment for business in rural areas and the development of selected rural nodes to facilitate their socio- economic growth towards a sustainable future. Extension Ensure that at least 60% of all agricultural land reform projects in the Province succeed over the next 5 years..

SO WHAT? Structural change in demand for agricultural products. Population Ability to purchase “Financial crisis” should actually be no surprise. World trade patterns are changing. Trade is important for the Western Cape Agricultural Sector. Should we follow the herd?

REALITY CHECK: AFRICA

OUR WORLDVIEW? Source: NASA (2000)

SSA ECONOMIC GROWTH Source: WEF of IMF (2011)

GDP GROWTH (2011 – 16) (Economy % bigger by 2016) Source: Database of WEF/IMF (2011)

GDP / CAP (2011) ($) Source: Database of WEF/IMF (2011)

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (2009) (2000 $ Million) Source: FAOSTAT (2011)

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (1992) (2000 $ Million) Source: FAOSTAT (2011)

PRODUCTION GROWTH (1990/94 – 2005/09) Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)

AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Source: FAOSTAT (2011)

EFFICIENCY GAINS IN FOOD PRODUCTION Source: Alain de Janvry (2009)

SO WHAT? We need to challenge our traditional world view Some economies in Africa will double in size during the next 5 years. Africa has some individuals with significant purchasing power. Do not underestimate Africa’s agricultural production Our agricultural technology may make a difference

SOME FEATURES OF AFRICA

INDEX: GOVERNANCE (Index: -2,5 – 2,5) Source: IFAD (2011)

INFRASTRUCTURE (2009) (Index 1 – 5) Source: World Development Indicators (2011)

AGRICULTURAL LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY: (% Growth 1998 – 2008) Source: IFAD (2011))

AGRICULTURAL IMPORT GROWTH ( ) (%) Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)

RENEWABLE WATER / CAPITA (m 3 /Cap/year) Source: AQUASTAT (2011)

PRESSURE ON RENEWABLE WATER (% of renewable water used by Agriculture) Source: AQUASTAT (2011)

SO WHAT? Doing business in Africa will present challenges: Governance Infrastructure Africa presents immense agricultural potential Productivity gains Land Water

RANKING COUNTRIES

CATEGORIES Governance Economy Agriculture’s role in economy Population Trade Agricultural Production Agricultural Land Water

RANKING Source: Own calculations

SO WHAT? Africa is a continent of 52 countries – choose carefully

WHAT OTHERS SAY

SOUTH AFRICAN RETAILERS REGION COUNTRY SHOPRITE / CHECKERSFRUIT & VEG GAMEPICK & PAYSPAR ShopriteU-Save Southern Africa Angola35+1+? Botswana5?2+1?23 Lesotho4?1?1 Madagascar8? Malawi232 Mozambique5?1+132 Namibia14?32+1?29 Swaziland62?7 Zimbabwe1?1+125% 46435% 68 Zambia19?1+1? East Africa Mauritius3?21+12 Reunion1 Tanzania3?1 Kenya Uganda2?1 North Africa Tunisia Morocco Algeria West Africa Ghana111+1 Mali Cot d’Ivoure Nigeria3?1 Central Africa Cameroon Gabon CAR DRC

THE REALITIES OF AFRICA

ADAPTING TO CHANGING WORLD ORDER: Exports of Apples & Pears Source: ITC Database (2011)

SO WHAT? Africa presents new opportunities.

CONCLUSION

“The world it is a-changing” “Look north young man” “Afrika is nie vir sissies nie”

Thank you Dankie Enkosi

Dr Dirk Troskie Tel: (021) Mobile:

SOME NATIONAL INITIATIVES REGION COUNTRYDAFF ReportsSPEAR JADAFA / BFAPBFAP Baseline OldNew Southern Africa Angola XX Mozambique X XX Namibia Zimbabwe? East Africa Mauritius Tanzania XX Kenya X North Africa Tunisia Morocco Algeria West Africa Ghana Mali Cot d’Ivoure Nigeria (?) Central Africa Cameroon Gabon CAR DRC (?) Others Botswana X Egypt X Ethiopia X Sudan X Uganda X X Malawi X X Zambia X XX

OTHER PROVINCIAL DEPARTMENTS REGIONCOUNTRY WESGRODEDAT ReportWest Africa axisAir access Southern Africa Angola XXX Mozambique Namibia X Zimbabwe (?) East Africa Mauritius Tanzania Kenya X North Africa Tunisia Morocco Algeria West Africa Ghana XXX Mali Cot d’Ivoure XX Nigeria (?) XX Central Africa Cameroon XX Gabon XX CAR DRC (?) XX OthersSenegal XX

TOP THREE IN EACH REGION Southern Africa South Africa Angola Mozambique Namibia Zimbabwe (?) East Africa Mauritius Tanzania Kenya

TOP THREE IN EACH REGION North Africa Tunisia Morocco Algeria West Africa Ghana Mali Cote d’Ivoure Nigeria (?)

TOP THREE IN EACH REGION Central Africa Cameroon Gabon Central African Republic DRC (?)

AGRIC PRODUCTION PER CAPITA INDEX (2007 – 2009) (1999 – 2001 = 100) Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)

INEQUALITY: Gini Index (Latest year) Source: World Development Indicators