Real Estate Forecast What’s in store for us this year? March 18, 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Real Estate Forecast What’s in store for us this year? March 18, 2014

Welcome Thomas Francl, MBA, CNE, CMA Associate Faculty School of Business and Management

Introduction Dr. Michael R. Cunningham President, National University Chancellor, National University System

Guest Speaker Alan Nevin Director of Economic and Market Research Xpera Group

UP The Next 5 Years (619) Alan Nevin

“The situation is hopeless, but not serious.” Count Leopold Bercktold

Change in Gross Domestic Product United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

8 Lehman Bros. Collapse Torrey Pines Bank

Source: U.S Department of Labor 4 Torrey Pines Bank

Economic Strength Ratings by State THE FUTURE OF AMERICA Where the Action isn’tWhere the Action is

DECEMBER 2012 – DECEMBER 2013  The States% of All Job Gains  Top %  Bottom %  Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Jobs Created in California Torrey Pines Bank15

United States  This past year, 1.15 million households were formed in the United States (twice the previous year).  6.5 million persons doubled up during the recession.  2.2 million people got divorced.  2.2 million people got married.

Do you sense the air is different in the Silicon Valley? “There’s an enormous rejection of constraints.” An interview with Larry Summers in Fortune Magazine

Now let’s talk real estate!

Now, here’s the 2014 forecast

Population growth will continue at 300,000+ New jobs will total more than 250,000 75,000 new housing units will be permitted

There will be 400,000 single family homes resold Condo conversions will return, a little Foreclosures and short sales will reach new lows. Interest rates will remain low, Very low. Home prices will increase 8-10%

Alan N. Nevin Director, Economic and Market Research (619)

Next Event: May 20, 2014 Ron Roberts Supervisor, San Diego County Register at: