India’s Economic Development – Challenges to the Young By DR T.H. CHOWDARY Director: Center for Telecom Management and Studies Fellow: Tata Consultancy.

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India’s Economic Development – Challenges to the Young By DR T.H. CHOWDARY Director: Center for Telecom Management and Studies Fellow: Tata Consultancy Services Chairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India ) Former: Chairman & Managing Director Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited & Information Technology Advisor, Government of Andhra Pradesh T: +91(40) (O) & ® F: +91 (40) HYD: 23 Feb 2014 THC_CTMS1S707_Feb2014

3 categories of people Entitlement Employment Entrepreneurship What do you want to be? THC_CTMS2S707_Feb2014

All are born equal: But Nurture Education Effort Make persons unequal THC_CTMS3S707_Feb2014

Which is the source of all wealth Nature Sunlight Ores, geysers, water Rivers, forests, seas, mountains, deserts, marshes and fawna THC_CTMS4S707_Feb2014

How we convert natural resources into products/services Science& Technology R&D & Inventions Industries Agriculture Capital ( comes from savings) Work ( labour, machines) THC_CTMS5S707_Feb2014

THC_CTMSS707_Feb Source: Angus Maddison; J.P.Morgan World GDP per Person, 1000=100 S & T for Wealth Creation

THC_CTMSS707_Feb20147 World Population and the Poor YearPopulation% of the Poor billion85% billion30% billion20% bln18% bln15%

THC_CTMSS707_Feb20148 India’s Share of World’s Industrial Production IndiaBritain Annual Revenue of Aurangzeb: $ 450 m (France’s Louis XIV:$ 40m) Pliny, Roman Historian called India “The sink of the world’s gold” INDIA WAS THE WEALTHIEST

THC_CTMSS707_Feb20149 Time taken to double the per capita income (1) Country UKUSA Japan Indonesia S.Korea China Years Since

THC_CTMSS707_Feb Time taken to double the per capita income (2) GDP GrowthPopulationTime taken 3.5%2.0%50 Y 6.5%1.8%15 Y 10.0%1.0%7 Y

THC_CTMSS707_Feb Poverty came down Country Indonesia Malaysia Thailand S/pore India From % (1972) (1973) (1962) (1972) (1951) To % (1982) (1987) (1986) (1982) (2002) Life expectancy up from 56 to 71 during this period * UPA II puts the poor at 66% under Food Security Act & Programme

India - Growth of GDP; Population; Per Capita Income (PCI) & Years for doubling PCI PeriodGDPPOPPCIYRS 1951 to Lesson from China: Control population during period of growth [JRD’s advice to Nehru in 1950s dismissed.] BPL ratio is the index: in India it came down from 70% in the 1950s to about 30% now [BPL ratio in A P is 85% according to white ration cards & increasing.] THC_CTMS12S707_Feb2014

THC_CTMSS707_Feb Gross World Product: in $ Trillion Year $T Share of Services Sector $18$25$40 % Traded30%40%45% * India’s trade ( Ex + Imp) will be 31% of GDP

Jobs lost/created in the last 10 years in different sectors in India jobs grew by a mere 2% p.a Pop. 1.8% i.e adding about 20 mln Job creation never> 10 mln Unproductive spend GOI’s Interest Payments Rs. 3,64,244 cr Welfare spend & subsidies Rs. 5,00,000 cr Subsidies (Rs. 2,42,255 cr in ) (i/c Haj Rs cr) Give aways NREGA- Rs. 40,000 cr SHG THC_CTMS14S707_Feb2014

Improper Spending Farmers loans Rs. 70,000 cr Indira Awas Old age pensions Pregnant women nourishment Fee Reimbursement producing “certified but not qualified”. Engineers etc. 10 lakh unemployed B.Techs in A.P alone 85% (Rajiv’s) welfare becomes black money Rs. 4,00,000 cr p.a Under spending : DefenceR&D China : $1481% India :$38 2% THC_CTMS15S707_Feb2014

THC_CTMSS707_Feb India’s Share in the World Trade and Wealth YearWealthTrade %25% 1947NA2.4% 1990NA0.4% %0.8% %1.0% % 2.7% INDIA WAS THE WEALTHIEST

What we need to do Link up rivers & national water grids National &Highways = Rs. 70,000 RKM National Power Grid 600 new towns/ cities 100 ports & harbours 200 airports Solar Power Generation on all multi-storeyed buildings ( Germany, Israel) Electric cars (Petrol/diesel stations become Battery Replace Stations (Israel, Denmark… THC_CTMS17S707_Feb2014

What we need to do contd.. NCC in all colleges 2 Y service in Armed Forces Obligatory Residential Universities 5,000 PPP Hospitals 1000 more Medical colleges 500 more Nursing colleges THC_CTMS18S707_Feb2014

Job Growth 2000-’12 2% per year SectorJobs in mln Share in TotalAnnual change Agriculture Manufacturing60134 Construction Trade, Hotel53114 Transport, storage coms Other services53114 All THC_CTMS19S707_Feb2014

VRO, VRA applicants (A.P) written test JobsExam VRO1,65111,84, / for 1 job VRA4,30588,609 20/ for 1 job THC_CTMS20S707_Feb2014

Total lakhs wrote VRO jobsApplicants wrote Karimnagar8381,825 Nalgonda6873,960 Mahboobnagar10371,302 Guntur8368,072 THC_CTMS21S707_Feb2014

Dhanyawad: Thank You THC_CTMS22S707_Feb2014