Evangelicals, Born Agains, and Fundamentalist Christians in Election 2004 May 26, 2004 Source:

Two Polls Greenberg Research Survey of all evangelicals in America Conducted April 5 th, 2004 Zogby International Survey of evangelicals in 16 battleground states Conducted between May 18 th and May 23 rd, 2004

Greenberg Research – Evangelical Demographics Evenly spread throughout the country 31% live in the Deep South 19% live in the Central Northeast 14% live on the Pacific coast Evangelicals disproportionately live in rural areas (25%) or small towns (31%)

Greenberg Research – Demographics (cont.) 55% of Evangelicals believe it is very important we show support for Israel in contrast with only 40% of Americans in general. 82% of Evangelicals are registered voters and 65% of those reported that they voted in both 2000 and % of Evangelicals are Afro-American, 75% of whom are staunch Kerry supporters.

Greenberg Research – White Evangelicals White evangelicals are mainly conservative and support Bush’s re- election bid. Among those who vote, 74% support Bush as opposed to 23% that support Kerry. More politically engaged than general population. More likely to participate politically due to religiosity. While 1 in 5 white evangelical voters are Democrat, they are less likely to vote than their Republican counterparts.

Greenberg Research – Evangelical Foreign Policy Moved more by conservative ideology rather than faith-based altruism. Priorities include homeland security, war on terror, and safety from foreign aggression. Evangelicals are much more pro-Israeli (55% versus 40%) than Americans in general. However, there is little difference from the general population with regard to Palestinian rights.

CNI / Zogby Poll Results - Evangelical Views on the Mideast 49% of Born Agains support making Israel accountable for her actions. 33% do not support making Israel accountable. (April 5, 2004) 40% of Born Agains agree that the state of Palestine should now be recognized. 30% disagree with the remainder unsure. (July 2003)

Zogby International Poll of likely voters in the 16 “battleground states” Arkansas (6) Florida (27) Iowa (7) Michigan (17) Minnesota (10) Missouri (11) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Oregon (7) Pennsylvania (21) Tennessee (11) Washington (11) West Virginia (5) Wisconsin (10)

Zogby International – Florida Bush won by 537 votes in % Kerry 63% Bush 30% of likely voters are “evangelical”

Zogby International – Pennsylvania Gore won by 204,000 (4.2%) votes in % Kerry 79% Bush 17% of likely voters are “evangelical”

Zogby International – Ohio Bush won 165,000 (3.5%) votes in % Kerry 80% Bush 20% of likely voters are “evangelical”.

Zogby International – Michigan Gore won by 217,000 (5.1%) votes in % Kerry 70% Bush 20% of likely voters are “evangelical”.

Zogby International – All 16 Battleground States

Questions Will the election depend on how many born again, fundamentalist, or evangelical voters turn out? Does Bush’s re-election hinge on raising the number of such voters from 65% participation to 70% or more?

Conclusion “Bad politicians are elected by good people who don’t vote.” – Billy Graham, Evangelist Karl Rove fears Evangelicals not voting in 2004