AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group November 5, 2010 Ed Christopher Resource Center Planning Team Federal Highway Administration 4749 Lincoln Mall Dr. Rm 600 Matteson, IL Topics Boundaries 3-year CTPP/ACS 5-year CTPP TAZs/TADs PUMS/PUMAS Update on Census Info and Planning Products/ Getting Ready for TAZ Delineation

2

3 Urban Areas Urbanized Areas (50,000+) circa 1950 Urban Clusters (2,500 to 49,999) circa 2000 Boundaries -- Some Background

4 Transportation Perspective (Census Defined) Urbanized Area (UZA) Federal-Aid (Adjusted) Urban[ized] Area (FAUA) Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA) Non-Attainment Area

5 Some Implications for Transportation New / Retired MPOs New / Retired TMAs Expanded MPOs & TMA Changed Roadway Classifications Data Reporting and reports Funding and Financial Issues Outdoor Advertising Hinges on Transportation Bill

6 100K - Threshold Grandfathering 200K - Project Selection Authority 1 Million+ Special Funding and Requirements NARC - Status Quo AASHTO - Somewhat Vague FHWA - Internal House - T+I Committee, HR ____ Senate - What’s an MPO? A TMA?

7 Timing 2009 SAFETEA-LU expired New Bill Expected (2011) ??? 2010 Fed Register-Comments on UA Criteria 2012 New UAs Released (Springtime) Register Notice on Proposed Criteria for Urban Area Boundaries (August 24, 2010)

o o Use of Tracts as Analysis Unit (Initial Phase) o o Reducing Jumps from 2.5 miles to 1.5 o o Use of a National Land Cover Data Base o o Changing Airport threshold from 10K to 2,500 enplanements o o Eliminating the Central Place Concept o o Establishing Minimum pop living outside of group quarters o o Splitting Large Areas o o Naming Criteria Highlights of Federal Register Notice Comments due November 22, 2010

ACS Data Releases Tract and Block Group 5-year Period 20, year Period 65,000+Annual Data for the Previous Year Released in: Population Size of Area Data Type

And then the CTPP Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP) Program The CTPP is an umbrella program of Census related data products, custom tabulations, training, technical assistance, and research for the transportation community

CTPP History

12 CTPP then and Now CTPPackage Prior to ACS CTPProducts Program Post ACS The CTPP program now includes Many more Data products Training and technical assistance On-call user support Training classes and web seminars Research Federal Technical Advisory Group TRB Subcommittee -- List Serve (800 strong) Quarterly Newsletter -- Outreach -- Several Websites

A Lot is Coming at Us

3-year CTPP Data Product CTPP 3-Year September 2010 Oct/Nov , 2007, ,000 Pop. Areas (County, Place, PUMAs) Actual Flows _______________ XXVXX

The 3-year Product Design 2008 Geography MSA – EACH Principal City Metropolitan Statistical Area State-POW PUMA State-PUMA (red = 2000 geo.) State-Place State-County-MCD State-County Nation (US Total) Product Structure 3-Parts Part 1- Place of Residence Part 2- Place of Work Part 3- Flows between Home and Work On-Line Data Retrieval Extraction Software ~ Raw Data Download State

The 3-year Product County to County Flows are on the street ftp://ftp.camsys.com/temp/outgoing/CTPP/New%20CTPP%20ACS/

3-year CTPP Product Summary HighlightsLow Lights Based on CTPP2000 Tables Many NEW Univariate Tables More Age Tables Streamlined Race Tables More HH and HH Lifecycle Tables More English Proficiency Tables Way more Flows Tables Incomplete Coverage Rounded Reduced Number of Crosstabs with Mode -- Travel time -- Household income -- Vehicle availability -- Age -- Time leaving home Tables will have Suppression -- Means based on 3 values -- 3 records in Flow MOEs

Some Issues to be aware of What year is the data? Period Estimate brought forward to year of release What Data to use? Reliability vs. Currency 3-year ACS (2006, 2007, 2008)

Significance Testing--Why do it? MOE, MOE, MOE Source: CTPP Data Profiles

A Compass for Understanding And Using ACS Data  Set of user-specific handbooks  Train-the trainer materials  E-learning ACS Tutorial  Annotated Presentations Working with ACS

What data should I use? Travel Times for the 6- counties in NE Illinois 1. To compare with 1970, ‘80, ‘90 and 2000 Travel Times? 2. To compare with my town of 52,000 people? 3. To validate my 2008 vintage travel demand model?

Collapsing Finally A word about Collapsing

CTPP products collapsing schema

NE Illinois ( year ACS) And remember I noted Incomplete Coverage? Gray = Less than 20K people and No data “Where’s the beef Data?” “It Looks Like Swiss Cheese” X

New Geography Requires implementation of new disclosure avoidance (“masking”) techniques 5-year CTPP Data Product

Cell Means and aggregates require 3 unweighted records The are DRB rules For Pt 3 Flow Tables: 3 unweighted records for each table, each cell, with the exception of the 1-way Means of Trans. table 3 unweighted records for the marginal's in any cross-tabulation with Means of Trans.

5-year CTPP Data Product NCHRP ($550K) Producing Transportation Data Products from the ACS that Comply With Disclosure Rules NCHRP is funded by State DOTs SP&R Project schedule: Jan 2010-July 2011 Need results to be applied to ACS for the 5-year CTPP (delivery to software vendor in summer 2012) Westat, Tom Krenzke, PI

“NEW” TAZs Traffic Analysis Zones 0Delineation%20Business%20Rules_CTPP%20Final.pdf Defined by MPOs and State DOTS Software Deployed (Spring 2011) Developed in Summer 2011 TAZs will nest with TADs GIS equivalency process Funded under Consolidated Purchase TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone Traditional Size TAD Traffic Analysis District 20,000 population

What is an equivalency process? Take the map at the right and using the states boundaries make 9 contiguous regions It’s the same for TAZs Blocks cluster into TAZs

A real world example ● Census Blocks will make up TAZs ● TAZs will nest with TADs ● TADs will nest in Counties ●Nesting with Tracts is optional

TAZ Size CB recommends ~600 persons corresponds to the minimum threshold for 2010 Census Block Groups Threshold is guideline not a requirement TAZs may be defined with fewer than 600 residents or workers Data reliability and availability improves as population size increases Bigger is Better

The Schedule Nov Agencies verify contact names (AASHTO Website) Jan Final delivery of Software by Caliper Feb Web-based training Feb 25 and Feb 28 March through April Delivery of software and Census 2010 data and geographic files (Rolling basis) 3- Months to delineate TAZ/TADs June through July Files returned to CB Geography

Creating TAZs files/PPT_12_TAZ%20White%20Paper_NOV07_FINAL_CS_Keli_Wu.ppt FDOT_TAZ_White_Paper.pdf Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure White Paper on Recommended Approach to Delineating TAZ

5-year Geography and Flows Asymmetrical Flows Small Areas defined by MPOs in MPO areas and States Elsewhere Tracts are Defaults for Small Areas Default TADs under discussion

PUMAs? -- What are they? PUMAs are the zones used from PUMS data Public Use Microdata Sample PUMS data is based on individual census records and is available only at large geographic areas. Think of the PUMS dataset as the raw, disaggregate census sample data, at a large enough geographic level necessary to protect the confidentiality of the census respondent. ACS Sample Standard Tabs PUMS Records

Why are PUMAs Important? Let’s Look at Annual Data ● Annual Data ● 65K+ ● Note the areas in gray ● We call this Swiss Cheese NE Illinois (2008 pop estimate) Chicago

Why are PUMAs Important? NE Illinois (PUMAs) Tabulation Area for ACS ● Represent 100K ● Complete Coverage ● Smaller than Counties ● NO Swiss Cheese

How many PUMAs should this area have? City of Chicago 2000 PUMAs 2,896,016 (2000 Pop) Why are PUMAs Important? - Defines areas for analysis - Tabulation Area for ACS - Custom Tabulation Who Defines Them? - The Community - Led by State Data Center When are They Defined? - S ummer Criteria out Spring 2010

PUMA Resources IPUMS maintains the PUMS data back to the 1850 census and has and online table generator Minnesota Population Center CTPP Webinar on IPUMS Compass Handbook by Census Bureau oks/ACSPUMS.pdf

What else?

5 year regular ACS Fed Register Notice on ACS 5-Year Data Product Plans Block Groups not on FactFinder and loaded with suppression Data due out in December 2010 ’05, ‘06, ’07. ’08, ’09 Data Years

Census Bureau E-Tutorial and ACS

43 Just in American FactFinder to get facelift in January Take the Advance Tour

And now for the aftermath

45 To Learn more about the CTPP Join the CTPP List Serve