Performance Evaluation of Emissions Models Models3 Workshop Mark Janssen Midwest RPO/LADCO

What emissions models? zSMOKE - MCNC ySparse matrix fast yFree - uses Fortran and IOAPI libs zEMS-2002 yData openness yModel code decipherable to outsiders

How do you evaluate emissions models? zAbility to create realistic representation of reality: yFor a specific Chemical Transport Model(CTM) xCMAQ, CAMX, REMSAD, UAM-IV ySpatial scale of the CTM(domain, cell size) yLumped chemical species mechanisms(CB- IV) yTemporal scale of the model(Hour Specific)

What makes it hard? zMany types of data yInventories, landuse, met, speciation, temporal allocation tables, 80+ types zInventory quality problems yStack parameters, temporal allocation……. zParts are not complex,but many parts yOnroad, Biogenic, Offroad, Point, Area yFires, Dust, Ammonia, Electric Generation

How do you measure Performance? zEasy to understand and use parts yDocumentation yReadable, stable code yEasy execution, installation yEasy to build new grids, episodes ySupport available(Community or Contractors) yHardware Software Requirements

How do you measure Performance(cont.)? zModels assist in identification of inventory problems that effect models yData formatting problems. ymissing SCC codes ySupersonic exit velocities zModels assist in identification of inventory quality problems. yInventory for a category is too high/low yTemporization does not match reality

Advance Stack Diagnostics zHeuristic algorithims/Methods to find problems zList top 10 ROG and NOX sources zOut of range for combination of: yplume concentration of NOX, Stack height/Plume Height, High plume height, etc. zSource not located in FIPS county identified zReport of small source “fixed” by model. zLow effective plume height at Large facility

zSTATE=Tennessee FACILITY TOTAL NOX TONS= Facility Name=TVA CUMBERLAND STEAM PLANT Facility ID=0011 COUNTY NAME=Stewart z County Stack Height Diameter Temp Velocity Flow Rate Device Process Emissions Hourly Day OF Week z Obs ID ID (feet) (feet) deg. F ft/sec scf/min ID(BOILER) ID(FUEL) scc Tons/Day Profile # Profile # z z z z Big NOX Report

Tier Reporting zTier1: Direct Loss of emissions: Missing State, County ID, Facility ID, Invalid SCC code, Duplicate keys in 2 records, Invalid Pollutant ID zTier2: Could lose emission: Bad Coordinate, Missing Facility ID in Emission record, Bad Area source SCC

Tier Reporting zTier3: Results in System Default: Duplicate SCC codes in Process file, Missing UTM Coordinates in stack file: Stack ID missing in emission file. zTier4: Non critical: Invalid SIC code, Stack Parameters out of range on small source

How an emissions modeler spends their time.

zProcessing speed and Disk I/O not relevant

Problems with Current Emissions Models zEMS-2002 requires ySAS License($1,800 states/EPA, $19K others) yDevelopers(LADCO, WI, Alpine Geophysics) zSMOKE ySparse Matrix, difficult to decipher yComplex new QA, exporting Difficult yDevelopers(MCNC,?)

Rethinking Open Emissions Models zNew models must build on strengths of old models zCode Open, Use GPL SQL software yReadable, Programmable, Exportable, ODBC zFree, Run on Linux Clusters zData transparency yBuild many ad-hoc reporting tools yCommunity development sharing of tools zCommunity Built yCommunity is not: We all pitch in money to one pot for one contractor.

Attributes of Early Open Emissions Models. zShell scripts to run many days(No UI) zRobust inventory problem identification and repair(See EMS tier reporting + advanced stack diagnostics) zData Transparency, Call up a dataset in a window(Allow query of dataset with complex Boolean query) zWorks with CMAQ and PM-CAMX, REMSAD zStrong couple with MM5.

UCR/LADCO Open Emissions Model White Paper zDefine Core structure of Model yWhich SQL Product yWhat Interfaces zIncremental development yEarly: Fires,Speciation, Dust, NH3 yLater: Point, Area, Mobile, Biogenic zDevelopment by a true Community  LADCO, UCR, WI, MI, Alpine Geophysics, Others ? yLearn from “Cathedral And The Bazaar.”