1 Status of and Outlook for Nuclear Generation in the U.S. Energy Bar Association Mid-Year Meeting December 3, 2009 Scott Sitzer U.S. Energy Information Administration

2 U.S. Nuclear Status Currently 104 nuclear reactors at 65 power plants in 31 States. Nuclear is approximately 20 percent of all generation in the U.S. Last new nuclear plant to come on line was Watts Bar 1 (TVA) in TN in No new units have completed the application process since 1978.

Operable U.S. Nuclear Units,

Electricity Generation by Fuel Type

5 Current Nuclear Developments License Applications for 27 New Reactors at 18 Sites Received by NRC, but Not All are Being Actively Pursued 3 new sites in Texas, Florida, and South Carolina being considered, all others on existing sites New nuclear production not expected until 2016 at the earliest One enrichment facility under construction in New Mexico; construction on a second in Ohio has been suspended; a third planned unit, in Idaho, is currently under regulatory review, and a fourth, using laser separation technology, is being considered for a site in North Carolina.

6 Location of Potential New U.S. Nuclear Reactors

Factors Favoring Future Nuclear Development EPACT 2005 tax credits, loan guarantees, and insurance provisions Need for additional baseload generation in the future Zero-emission technology

Barriers to New Nuclear Development High capital costs Waste disposal issues Public perceptions

Capital Cost Assumptions for New Generating Capacity

Outlook EIA’s reference case projects increases for nuclear capacity of about 12 gigawatts net by 2030, assuming current laws and regulations. Total is made up of 3.4 gigawatts of expansion at existing plants, 13.1 gigawatts of new capacity, and 4.4 gigawatts of retirements. But other scenarios show more or less depending upon assumptions about costs, demand, and emissions policies.

11 Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2009, U.S. Energy Information Administration Nuclear Generating Capacity, 2007, 2020, and 2030 (gigawatts)

Waxman-Markey Analysis EIA analyzed the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACESA), the Waxman- Markey bill Analysis shows significant impacts on nuclear capacity and generation through 2030 Results are dependent on assumptions concerning banking, international offsets, and the costs of low-emission technologies

Waxman-Markey Analysis (contd.) Under the Basic ACESA case, nuclear generating capacity is 195 gigawatts (up 77 percent from the reference case), and generation is 1548 billion Kwh in Under this scenario, nuclear would account for 35 percent of total generation in 2030, compared to 19 percent in the reference case projection. Along with renewables, nuclear would be the primary source of replacement generation for coal and natural gas.

Main cases in EIA’s analysis Case Name Assumptions Basic Integrated analysis of all of the modeled provisions of ACESA. Zero Bank Same as Basic but no carryover of allowances beyond Proxy for major low- no-carbon energy technology breakthroughs with significant market impacts after 2030 High Offsets Same as Basic but assumes increased use of international offsets. High Cost Same as Basic but assumes that nuclear, fossil with CCS and biomass gasification costs are 50 % higher No International Same as Basic but assumes international offsets are too expensive or unable to meet the requirements for use No International / Limited Same as Basic but limits additions of nuclear, fossil with CCS and biomass to reference case levels. Also no international offsets.

EIA’s Projected Capacity Additions by Fuel, : ACESA Analysis Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009

EIA’s Projected Generation by Fuel in 2030: ACESA Analysis (billion Kilowatt-hours) Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009

17 Thank You for your Attention! For more information: Energy Information Administration home pageww.eia.doe.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review U.S. Energy Information Administration