International Relations (13) Korean Nuclear Power/Weapons 2009. 12. 1 김 병 구

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Presentation transcript:

International Relations (13) Korean Nuclear Power/Weapons 김 병 구

History of First Nuclear Tests 1945USA (Trinity) 1949USSR (Fat Man, Kazakhstan) 1952UK (Australia) 1967China (Sinkiang) 1968France (S. Pacific) 1974India (Smiling Buddha, Rajasthan) 1998Pakistan 2006NK (Poonggye)

Nuclear Arms Race (2004 inventory) Russia:16,000 USA:10,350 China: 400 France: 350 UK: 200 Israel: 200 India: 30 ~ 35 Pakistan: 24 ~ 48 (1987 peak:USSR ~ 40,000, USA ~ 20,000)

US/RUS New Initiatives “4 Knights” recommendation (2008.1) –Perry/Nunn(Dem), Kissinger/Schultz(Rep) Obama NW disarmament, highest priority “US first to develop and use, moral obligation” Accelerated START-2 revision ( Obama/Medvedev Joint State.) UN Security Council Summit ( ) UNSCR 1887: World without NW

Goal of a World without NW Nuclear security summit, April 2010 –Strengthen NM control international regime –US/RUS to lead by example –Prep meeting called, Dec. 3, Tokyo NPT Review Conference, May-June 2010 “NW have’s” may gain moral ground Obama wins 2009 Nobel Peace Prize

Nuclear Weapon Free Zones Antarctic zone :Antarctic Treaty Latin America:Treaty of Tlatelolco ASEAN region:Treaty of Bangkok Africa continent:Treaty of Pelindaba S. Pacific region:Treaty of Rarotonga Central Asia region:Treaty of Almaty NE Asia region: (Limited NWFZ-NEA?)

Special Case of NK 1985Signed NPT 1992SG Agreement with IAEA, first crisis 1994Agreed Framework, KEDO Project 2002IAEA/NPT withdrawal, second crisis 2006Nuclear test (Poonggye) Party Talks, resolution agreed

8 The Yongbyon nuclear sites

9 The 5 and the 50 MWe reactors Reactor Fuel storage

10 Discharged fuel in baskets

11 Yongbyon’s reprocessing facilities

Current Status of 6-P Talks (2008-) Shut-down, dismantle of 5MW cooling tower Elimination from US terror country list IAEA inspectors on Yongbyun site Verification process underway Heavy oil supplied (half) First ROK nuclear expert visited Yongbyun (2009.1) Nuclear brinkmanship continues NK/US talks under “Grand Bargain”

Bilateral Talks may lead to Reopening of the 6-Party Talks Negative security assurance Diplomatic liaison offices in capitals Energy assistance to NK NK moratorium on nuclear/missile tests IAEA verification, rejoin NPT, etc.

Global Nuclear Renaissance 439 NPPs in 31 MS in operation (2008) –Delivering 15% of total world electricity 33 NPPs in 13 MS under construction 32 NPPs closed down, under decommissioning Nuclear suppliers global conglomerates –PWR : AREVA (Framatom+Siemens)EPR Westinghouse (Toshiba + ABB-CE)AP-1000 Korea (Doosan + ?)APR-1400 Russia (AEP)VVER-1000

World Nuclear Power Forecast Installed capacity Gwe Gwe Gwe Gwe (low) 700 Gwe (high) - major growth in Asia, Russia expected -

Nuclear export – Korean Dream New NPP market –Turnkey project supplier –Components supplier Existing NPP market –Replacement components supplier –Service contracts Nuclear fuel market –Reload core, fuel components supplier

Nuclear Export – Korean Dream(2) Research reactor market –Turnkey, replacement LEU fuel, service Nuclear medicine market –Cancer diagnosis/treatment, medical cyclotron Expert consulting service –IAEA peer review missions, etc.

Light/dark contrast in the Peninsula

Summary New window of opportunity for major NW disarmament Day and night contrast in Korean peninsula, caused by nuclear –NK nuclear issue – the Achilles tendon Global nuclear Renaissance is coming Korean opportunities from experts to exports