Steven Pifer Senior Fellow Center on the United States and Europe Foreign Policy Studies The Brookings Institution New START: Treaty.

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Presentation transcript:

Steven Pifer Senior Fellow Center on the United States and Europe Foreign Policy Studies The Brookings Institution New START: Treaty Overview

Treaty Ten-part protocol Three technical annexes Notifications Inspections Telemetric information

Numerical Limits 700 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments What is deployed system? 1550 deployed strategic warheads 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM/ SLBM launchers and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments

Launchers Launcher limits cover ICBM silos, mobile ICBM TELs, SLBM tubes, heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments What is a non-deployed launcher? Test, training systems; launchers without missiles Limits do not cover converted systems B-1s, missile tubes on Trident SSGNs

Counting Rules All warheads on ICBMs, SLBMs count Actual-load counting rule, with provision for on-site inspection Conventional as well as nuclear Heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments count as one warhead

Treaty Verification National technical means of verification Database and notifications Inspections Telemetry as transparency measure Bilateral Consultative Commission

Database, Notifications Extensive data declaration Update every six months Each ICBM, SLBM and bomber to have unique identifier Extensive notification requirements Cover movements, launches, conversions, eliminations, inspections

Inspections Ten “type one” inspections/yr at ICBM bases, submarine bases and air bases To confirm data on deployed systems, including number of warheads on ICBMs, SLBMs Eight “type two” inspections/yr at other sites To confirm data on non-deployed systems

Current U.S. Strategic Forces 450 Minuteman III ICBM launchers Also: 100 empty Minuteman/MX silos 336 Trident SLBM launchers/14 SSBNs Also: four Trident submarines with 96 launchers converted to SSGNs 94 heavy bombers (76 B-52H, 18 B-2) Also: approx 100 B-1 and B-52 bombers in conventional-only role

U.S. Post-Treaty Force Notional strategic force under New START might look like: New START Limits Now ICBMs SSBNs/SLBMs 14/336 12/240 14/ Heavy bombers Note 1: U.S. has room for 60 “non-deployed” systems under the 800 limit Note 2: U.S. plans to equip each SSBN to carry 20 SLBMs (vice 24)

Advantages for U.S. Security Reduces warhead limit by 30% compared to SORT’s upper limit of 2200 Verification measures => transparency U.S. will maintain robust deterrent Enhanced credibility at NPT RevCon Boost for broader U.S.-Russia relationship Framework for further reductions

Ratification Challenges Impact on missile defense Bomber weapon counting rule Counting conventional warheads No limits on tactical nuclear weapons Verification: less telemetry, mobile ICBMs Rail-mobile ICBMs Modernization